South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[Wilxy]

Hope we can see a further backtrack on 18z then cornwall and devon will be in the game again.

[quantock girl]

That can be a concern, yep, usually if fronts make it far enough into the uk to effect most of the country then we down here end up in the mild air and rain but I really don't know what's going to happen this time.

It could always stall and then pivot. Juicy then.

[Nights King]

Meto continues the theme with -7 850's over me in N.Dorset at T72 with the precip moved in.

FULL agreement from the models so far that the low will slide under the high, that cold air will stay or never be far away from the sw and, GFS upto 24-36 hrs of snow for some, There been no back track in the models. NAE at 48 needs to be taken very carefully as between T48 and when the front comes in the cold air should dig back in again.

Cornwall looks unlucky if i am honest.

Devon boarderline.

Somerset/Dorset, wilts, glos, could see the 24-36 hrs of snow and i personally dont think it will melt until sunday at the earliest.

I would be shocked if more than 6 inches melted in one day with cool temperatures anyway...

How much could we see fall if this is an all snow event?

[jessandjon]

Arghhh I going to committ myself!! Lol You couldn't write it could you! Sorry I have to laugh as we're hardly the tropics! Someone said oh well at least you get lovely summers and I nearly fainted!

I know I think there is a fan in the tamar that just blows everything over!!!!! I don't even want to be greedy just a bit for the kids to have some fun in not like I am asking for huge amounts, to be honest just a couple of flakes!!!!!!!

[Coast]

(Nice post BTW Robin! )

I did a little wee when I first saw them!!!

Then check UKMO:

Edited January 15, 2013 by Coast

[Iceberg]

Before people count this being over, GFS shows snow in our region even as far out at Sunday Evening.

[EGHH]

Just to follow on from my PDF, the 12z GFS is very similar to the 0z GFS, perhaps increasing the precipitation amounts but keeping the snow distribution much the same around the region. Sticking just to the "first event" for now, that is.

[Frosty_wsm]

Ian f just posted in the mod thread saying possible 6-12h snowfall in parts of the region Friday, was hoping for 24h

[A.J]

I did a little wee when I first saw them!!!

Then check UKMO:

quality chart and quality line mate.....

[jessandjon]

To IAN F regarding what was said in mod thread about position on snow being quite basic do you or anyone think Devon and Cornwall could get a surprise!!!!???

[gottolovethisweather]

Just to repeat AJs original post at the beginning of this thread.

Ok, a fresh thread with a plea for constructive posting. By all means, discuss all things weather related to our region, but remember that we have no control over the weather yet do have control over our emotions when posting....ta!

People are being monitored over what they post, as in any internet forum.

The report button is available to be used as a final resort too.

Don't be afraid to PM other members to discuss any personal issues rather than fill up the thread with nonsense. Although sometimes, I just about get away with that.

[Fred Sykes]

well, after all this Snow coming my way I might be sick of it by March. Especially after a Skiing Holiday to Valdesere. I just hope Charles and Willy don't throw snow balls at the Volvo, I had it cleaned by the local Polish car valeters twice last week, before driving it to my country weekend retreat in Surrey.

[Iceberg]

Meto is fantastic and the models so far look to have picked up on a trend to take the jet more NW to SE as it exits and crosses the atlantic between T48 and T144. This is much much better for us and gives less energy for the weekend meaning it lasts longer....

[TwisterGirl81]

I know I think there is a fan in the tamar that just blows everything over!!!!! I don't even want to be greedy just a bit for the kids to have some fun in not like I am asking for huge amounts, to be honest just a couple of flakes!!!!!!!

Well you never know it may change and stall over us...I know the feeling, we've lucked out so much in regards to snow, I hope we have a great summer to make up for it!

[gottolovethisweather]

well, after all this Snow coming my way I might be sick of it by March. Especially after a Skiing Holiday to Valdesere. I just hope Charles and Willy don't throw snow balls at the Volvo, I had it cleaned by the local Polish car valeters twice last week, before driving it to my country weekend retreat in Surrey.

I hope you're right in some of your predictions and I also hope snow comes to other areas who richly deserve something nice to look at, rather than grey skies and incessant rainfall.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[jessandjon]

Well you never know it may change and stall over us...I know the feeling, we've lucked out so much in regards to snow, I hope we have a great summer to make up for it!

Who needs snow when we have sun sea and surf!!!!! But after gtltw's big font comment above I shall try to refraine from general chit chat :-p

[Dave Kightley]

Meto is fantastic and the models so far look to have picked up on a trend to take the jet more NW to SE as it exits and crosses the atlantic between T48 and T144. This is much much better for us and gives less energy for the weekend meaning it lasts longer....

is the ukmo as good as the gfs run. Looks like snow to rain to meate in rhe s.w

[DanDorsetUK]

This is actually looking very serious! Holding off from telling family yet though!

[Coast]

is the ukmo as good as the gfs run.

Yep, a little belter!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Coast

[Olly]

I know this F.I (more eye candy)... but +162 shows snow from the west and reinforcements to the east!

[Beast of Plympton]

I hope you're right in some of your predictions and I also hope snow comes to other areas who richly deserve something nice to look at, rather than grey skies and incessant rainfall.

Agreed.

Before I log off for a while. Perhaps worth mentioning to the disheartened Devon and Cornwall among us, this is what the models THINK is going to happen. Last night we had the pink all over us, This morning none of us really had it, now its further to our east, the 18z will probably show something different. So those who feel its time to pop the champagne, hold fire.

A watched pot never boils, just like a watched cloud never snows!

The front may stall and dump 3 miles of snow on Helston, it may miss us all!! Forecast is what may happen, Nowcast is what is happening, I look forward to the nowcast on friday!!

See you later all.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Sainsbo]

This is actually looking very serious! Holding off from telling family yet though!

Ha, I told them Sunday. They know never to believe me until they see it when it comes to snow though.

Temperature has been dropping off very fast in the last hour, currently at 1C. Looking very chilly here tonight!

[DanDorsetUK]

I know this F.I (more eye candy)... but +162 shows snow from the west and reinforcements to the east!

May the lord have mercy! Snowmageddon anyone?

[cerneman]

Who needs snow when we have sun sea and surf!!!!! But after gtltw's big font comment above I shall try to refraine from general chit chat :-p

Still not yet sorted, The broad canvas painted but fine detail will be added on the day

[Iceberg]

is the ukmo as good as the gfs run. Looks like snow to rain to meate in rhe s.w

Using a rough thicnkess calculation it get 1000-500 of around 525 to 530 with snow on the ground that would keep the cold and not thaw imho, so METO stays cold to Sunday, GFS still gives snow for the SW next monday/tuesday so shows no breakdown really.

Personally this is my forecast option a brief warm up to give -3s or so 850s for a 24hr period before more moderate cold comes back in.

GEM looks to be following the same and takes more energy further south and slider option.

Fantastic 12z output imho.