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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Uh oh, worried face!

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lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted

I really hope just this once the west country can get its traditional stalling front that doesn't introduce rain after an hour or two. good.gif Its been years waiting....

Might not have to take your yearly skiing trip. Cant help but start to get the feeling of excitement now..

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Cryptic Ian :) Looking forward to your forecasts over the next few days!

Pure speculation from me but does ian's 'teaser' post indicate those outside our region wont be so down if they could see his mogreps insight?

Thats the way i read it..and dare i say...but does it also indicate it moves through our area before stalling to our East?

Just my take but hope i'm wrong.

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cerneman Explorer

cerneman

Posted
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but foggy damp weather
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
Posted

Looking at the archive charts it looks more marginal back then, with the 0C isotherm into the SW

http://www.wetterzen...00219780218.gif

All can remember that Parents lived just off Weymouth Esplanade, There cottage water pipes been frozen for few days before the 18th, Of course Weymouth town had not seen snow up to that point,
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Frank Trough Community Regular

Frank Trough

Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
Posted

Uh oh, worried face!

yes, does this mean a quicker push in from the atlantic and snow risk transferred further north and east?

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Hi Ian, that doesn't sound like there's much chance of the lp sliding south east and keeping our region in the cold air and snow instead of mild air and rain following on behind, sounds like the front will make it quite a way northeast into the uk.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Pure speculation from me but does ian's 'teaser' post indicate those outside our region wont be so down if they could see his mogreps insight?

Thats the way i read it..and dare i say...but does it also indicate it moves through our area before stalling to our East?

Just my take but hope i'm wrong.

The way I read it was that the MetO has more guidance available, so therefore with the backing of his inside information, certain folk away from this region would be getting rather annoyed at this region's prospects. good.gif

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

This is worth a repost before the GFS 12 z starts to run.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21027548

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

The way I read it was that the MetO has more guidance available, so therefore with the backing of his inside information, certain folk away from this region would be getting rather annoyed at this region's prospects. good.gif

God I hope your right, personally I hope it stalls in the south west and we get the deep snow instead of the north and east, wouldn't that make a nice change eh ;)

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Frank Trough Community Regular

Frank Trough

Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
Posted

This was Lulworth castle this morning, just 6 miles away. o_O

post-15177-0-32059900-1358263358_thumb.j

that's fabulous! nothing in Bournemouth - did that fall in the evening?

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Here is a picture from Swanpool Beach, Falmouth this morning at 8.45am. Clouded over now but it has been the most lovely day and really mild compared to the rest of the country. Very pleasant out of the wind. smile.png

post-6797-0-12829500-1358263853_thumb.jp

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

The way I read it was that the MetO has more guidance available, so therefore with the backing of his inside information, certain folk away from this region would be getting rather annoyed at this region's prospects. good.gif

he said wouldnt be a dampner if he could share with them. Maybe it'll be a true countrywide event including all of us!

i cant wait for his next instalment!

Ian usually shares Mogreps info at some point. hope he's just waiting for clearance from his superiors.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

God I hope your right, personally I hope it stalls in the south west and we get the deep snow instead of the north and east, wouldn't that make a nice change eh tease.gif

A lot of hope for you in the short-term I guess and less so for me, at least initially.

Thats how I view things right now. The battleground lines must be drawn before we can even analyse anything from Saturday onwards. search.gif

Up and coming, the first of the many useful afternoon outputs. hi.gif

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

NB Latest NAE progression across to meridian with PPN Thursday rejected for now and operational version heavily modified - in case anyone looks at raw stuff and starts hyperventilating. However.... Chief awaiting next UKMO-GM to be sure, so we await confirmation on expected evolution. Atlantic push of milder air much faster on new NAE through Thursday, hence much to play for in terms of broader evolution thereafter IF the NAE prog has any validity. At the moment... we lean otherwise.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

he said wouldnt be a dampner if he could share with them. Maybe it'll be a true countrywide event including all of us!

i cant wait for his next instalment!

Ian usually shares Mogreps info at some point. hope he's just waiting for clearance from his superiors.

Now wouldn't that be dreamland SNOWMAGEDDON. acute.gif

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

that's fabulous! nothing in Bournemouth - did that fall in the evening?

Yeah - A line of showers pushed down from the North West around midnight last night. I was in the smoking area of my local pub and the wind/rain was quite intense and then i spotted a few flakes mixed in. I have no idea how areas West of me got a covering like that and i didn't?! I put it down to isothermic drag myself. >_>

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

NB Latest NAE progression across to meridian with PPN Thursday rejected for now and operational version heavily modified - in case anyone looks at raw stuff and starts hyperventilating. However.... Chief awaiting next UKMO-GM to be sure, so we await confirmation on expected evolution. Atlantic push of milder air much faster on new NAE through Thursday, hence much to play for in terms of broader evolution thereafter IF the NAE prog has any validity. At the moment... we lean otherwise.

OUCH!

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted (edited)

OUCH!

And we're on the ropes! will 'we' be counted out?

or survive another round?

Edited by Bristle boy
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Beast of Plympton Enthusiast

Beast of Plympton

Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
Posted

NB Latest NAE progression across to meridian with PPN Thursday rejected for now and operational version heavily modified - in case anyone looks at raw stuff and starts hyperventilating. However.... Chief awaiting next UKMO-GM to be sure, so we await confirmation on expected evolution. Atlantic push of milder air much faster on new NAE through Thursday, hence much to play for in terms of broader evolution thereafter IF the NAE prog has any validity. At the moment... we lean otherwise.

Sorry, can anyone help a newbie with what this means?? Admire your work by the way Ian.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

And we're on the ropes! will 'we' be counted out?

or survive another round?

As the wise old men and women on here often state.

Let's wait until <t+6 if not at an even earlier timeframe.

I ain't bothered for now, as the models are chopping and changing on this yet to develop system. Although I do feel the underlying trend is towards an atlantic setup by next week.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Yep big ouch!

calm down lol, Ian did say for people not to start hyperventilating :)

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