South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[gottolovethisweather]

Who needs snow when we have sun sea and surf!!!!! But after gtltw's big font comment above I shall try to refraine from general chit chat :-p

No problem.

The atmosphere is very volatile at the best of times. Nobody can prejudge what happens in the timescale to which we refer.

You may get rain, I may get nothing and equally you may get the snow I'm assuming that you wish for.

We just need to keep our feet firmly on the ground and try to enjoy what falls on the ground nearer the time.

I await further analysis from the usual suspects here on in.

[AWD]

Word of caution guys, remember its not just the 850hpa temperatures we need to look at for the potential snow event.

Much better output compared to the overnight runs so far though.

[gottolovethisweather]

I know this F.I (more eye candy)... but +162 shows snow from the west and reinforcements to the east!

Indeed, this could be a very long road and I just wonder what the ensembles suggest the trend is and what MOGREPS and the ECM make of things too.

[Wilxy]

Word of caution guys, remember its not just the 850hpa temperatures we need to look at for the potential snow event.

Much better output compared to the overnight runs so far though.

Best not to get carried away still 3 days away.

[AWD]

As per the UKMO, the 528DAM line barely touches eastern counties of the UK. Can't post charts sorry, on phone.

Charts really do need looking into with more detail when looking for snowfall.

I've managed to;

Edited January 15, 2013 by AWD

[Nights King]

Rapid temperature drop it looks like the cold has landed.. -0.7c

I am going to try and ignore snow prospects for now as it seems to good to be true and often is I most certainly won't even bring it up with work though as I have been burnt several times this winter and it's becoming abit of a joke for them They laugh and say whatever bristol doesnt get snow and then... well you get the rest

I might sneak in a days holiday in for friday though and then if it rains just turn up and work the day and say oh darn i forgot (not first time) i might as well stay now.

[DanDorsetUK]

I dont like to change my work plans but being 3 days out im going to have to just incase i cant get home! Will lose loads of money if this comes out not being able to work!!

[jethro]

We are concerned. Just on blower to UKMO now. 6-12hrs snow possible parts of my area Fri. Not good.

Quote from Ian F, taken from the MOD thread, 20 mins ago.

Oh damn, a few posts down and he say's:

Fri considered 'low probability, severe impact' event currently and we need greater continuity through next 24hrs.

[Nights King]

We are concerned. Just on blower to UKMO now. 6-12hrs snow possible parts of my area Fri. Not good.

Quote from Ian F, taken from the MOD thread, 20 mins ago.

If this event came off in our favour we could all get out and do the stealth snowman competition! A37......

[Mapantz]

I'd advise to not take any notice of what the models are showing beyond Saturday. The GFS run wasn't too bad though, the Atlantic energy doesn't look as strong as the 06Z.

[jethro]

He did make another post which to idiot here was pure model gibberish, utterly incomprehensible to moi - reading through the responses, it seems that the NAE threw a potential spanner in the works on Thursday which affected the snowmageddon potential on Friday. However, the chief at the METO has discounted it as a daft idea, thrown out by a computer on the brink of melting point, and that Friday does still have the potential for us to be able to build a village of igloos for all those stealth snowmen to live in.

At least I think that's what the general gist was....

[A.J]

purely on 12z GFS output, it would be very marginal for snowfall most parts in our region. Forget the GFS PPN type charts to be honest. Even at T+6 they're about as much use as a choclate fireguard!....The reason it's marginal IMO is due to web bulb temps, dew points, and lower atmospheric thicknesses...

based on GFS (and only GFS) output then..

Cornwall/Devon - rain only, apart from the moors, and some wintry ppn on the Blackdowns

Somerset/Dorset, - Rain/Sleet Mix, snow at times due to evaporative cooling especially with any elevation

Gloucestershire/Wiltshire - Marginal, but heavy wet snowfall likely, substantial accs especially to the east and north of the counties and with elevation.

Just my blind stab at the weather, based on one model run

Edited January 15, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[katemart]

He did make another post which to idiot here was pure model gibberish, utterly incomprehensible to moi - reading through the responses, it seems that the NAE threw a potential spanner in the works on Thursday which affected the snowmageddon potential on Friday. However, the chief at the METO has discounted it as a daft idea, thrown out by a computer on the brink of melting point, and that Friday does still have the potential for us to be able to build a village of igloos for all those stealth snowmen to live in.

At least I think that's what the general gist was....

That's how I interpreted it, but I know nothing...

[Karl83]

Been too busy today to follow the thread but are we looking at some serious snowfall for a time here?

[katemart]

Cornwall/Devon - rain only, apart from the moors, and some wintry ppn on the Blackdowns

Somerset/Dorset, - Rain/Sleet Mix, snow at times due to evaporative cooling especially with any elevation

Gloucestershire/Wiltshire - Marginal, but heavy wet snowfall likely, substantial accs especially to the east and north of the counties and with elevation.

.... ahem!

[A.J]

.... ahem!

Southampton, especially near Kate's abode.......balmy, almost sub-tropical....with a UV index of 8, get the sun cream out!

[offerman]

O am i reading this write that there is low probablity of snow in south/southwest on Friday?

[Panayiotis]

Been too busy today to follow the thread but are we looking at some serious snowfall for a time here?

Yes quite possibly for your area, tomorrow night we shall have a better understanding of whats happening Friday/Weekend.

[katemart]

Southampton, especially near Kate's abode.......balmy, almost sub-tropical....with a UV index of 8, get the sun cream out!

Well, that would be lovely, too!

[RachN]

Hello Everyone,

1st post from a total newbie to weather..... well not to weather in general obviously.... just the "sciencey" (not sure if thats a word, but it should be) bit that makes it happen!

Absolutely fascinated with the posts of this forum, even from those that profess to being complete novices. Really interesting to read all of your comments, views and opinions, in what is clearly a forecasters nightmare, for even the most seasoned of professionals, by the look of it. It would appear our own Ian Ferguson is extremely well regarded and rightly so, he seems to pitch everything right with the right amount of explanation behind his forecasts, without baffling us with terms we dont understand. I, for one have learned more in the last week by reading these forums that I ever learned in my science lessons at school.

Obviously, hoping that we get some proper winter weather as does everyone on here by the sounds of it, instead of the continual wall of rain we have had, for what seems like forever. So looking forward to the 12z from ECM and UKMO (is that right?) this later today.....

Keep up the good work - especially you IanF!

Rachel

[AWD]

purely on 12z GFS output, it would be very marginal for snowfall most parts in our region. Forget the GFS PPN type charts to be honest. Even at T+6 they're about as much use as a choclate fireguard!....The reason it's marginal IMO is due to web bulb temps, dew points, and lower atmospheric thicknesses...

based on GFS (and only GFS) output then..

Cornwall/Devon - rain only, apart from the moors, and some wintry ppn on the Blackdowns

Somerset/Dorset, - Rain/Sleet Mix, snow at times due to evaporative cooling especially with any elevation

Gloucestershire/Wiltshire - Marginal, but heavy wet snowfall likely, substantial accs especially to the east and north of the counties and with elevation.

Just my blind stab at the weather, based on one model run

Yes, this is what I was trying to get at earlier.

We need to look at all ingredients for snowfall as a lot of then are very marginal. It's not just about the 850hpa temps.

Haven't got time to look now, but will do later.

[gottolovethisweather]

That's how I interpreted it, but I know nothing...

Like I often say to my sister when it comes identifying birdies in her garden, you know a lot more than you think you know.

Same applies to anything actually, as in the on-topic topic in question, the weather for example.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[jethro]

That's how I interpreted it, but I know nothing...

I know nowt either, it's all just squiggly lines and pretty colours on those model things; I'm just hoping Purple is the colour this season.

[A.J]

O am i reading this write that there is low probablity of snow in south/southwest on Friday?

Yes, for Devon/Cornwall, based on my interpretation of one model run.....The reality is, all to play for, still plenty of modelling and reality checks to go through before Friday!

[Karl83]

Yes quite possibly for your area, tomorrow night we shall have a better understanding of whats happening Friday/Weekend.

Thank you for that. Great stuff.