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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

A.J

By A.J
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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Jethro, I thought I.F said low confidence now on this or did i missunderstand.

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Joker Newbie

Joker

Posted
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
Posted

Just popped in here to see how the excitement is building at the front door so to speak. Expectations building in most of the forums. Let's hope we get an event to remember; by George, we deserve it!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Author
Posted

Hello, would someone mind explaining the significance of the DP please. . . Seen lots of people post what theirs is but over my head lol. Sorry to be a pain.

Rachel

Hi, the dew point temperature is the temperature at which water condenses out of the air, if you have dew points and wet bulb temps of above 0C then as a general rule that means rain, if you have dew points & wet bulb temps below 0C then that means frozen precipitation (which providing upper air temps and thicknesses are favourable, means snow)

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

I know Met Office have dismissed the NAE for now, but I see it as a little concerning.

It is a high res model that's designed for short term forecasting. IIRC it did alright (in the sense of other models) in predicting the weekends weather so its definetly a model I would like to see switch sides quickly.

Other than that, good output tonight as has been said. We are still very much in the game and at this stage, that's all we can ask for.

Lets hope the ECM doesn't let us down. Get this on our side too and we can all go to bed happy for now!

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jtay Veteran

jtay

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
Posted

Just popped in here to see how the excitement is building at the front door so to speak. Expectations building in most of the forums. Let's hope we get an event to remember; by George, we deserve it!

We're too cool for school in here.

If it happens, it happens.

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divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
Posted

Temp slowly falling away with clear skies above. 2.4 and dp of -2

Still wish it was Thursday evening though😄

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TwisterGirl81 Experienced

TwisterGirl81

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted

Does anyone know what to expect weather wise in Exeter? As its nearer east devon than west, I want lots of snow so bad! So far I think we'll get some but we seem on the boundary in most precipitation type charts? I hope it moves westwards more lol

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

Jethro, I thought I.F said low confidence now on this or did i missunderstand.

I think the low confidence he was talking about was to do with the NAE but the Chief at the METO has dismissed it as being an outlier. They're sticking with their modified version which gives us a good shot at some snow.

Ignoring my stupid excitement at the possibilities being shown, we do look likely to get some snow on Friday. The cold air out to the East isn't backing off, in fact seems to be encroaching further West. The front coming in from the Atlantic isn't backing off either. Where those two forces meet will likely get a fair bit of snow, the doubt lays with where that position will be, and whether or not it will be cold enough for snow instead of rain. The current thoughts according to the calmest and one of the most knowledgeable posters on here (John Holmes, ex pro forecaster, ex main forecaster on Netweather) is that it will be cold and staying cold into the foreseeable future.

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Bumpkin Apprentice

Bumpkin

Posted
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather but especially warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
Posted

Well I've given in to temptation and treated myself to a radar subscription. I have people coming up to me at school for weather forecasts lol. I just tell them i'll keep them updated. With this new flash radar to play with I'm not going to get anything else done now.

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TropicThunder Aficionado

TropicThunder

Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton
Posted

Jethro, I thought I.F said low confidence now on this or did i missunderstand.

With a scenario like this, I think at 3/4 days out the MO will always say confidence is low as plenty can change at short notice, as we have seen. However the current model output is very encouraging and hopefully confidence will continue to rise over the next 24/48 hours!

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Bumpkin Apprentice

Bumpkin

Posted
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather but especially warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
Posted

Does anyone know what to expect weather wise in Exeter? As its nearer east devon than west, I want lots of snow so bad! So far I think we'll get some but we seem on the boundary in most precipitation type charts? I hope it moves westwards more lol

TG nobody knows for certain, these battleground style events are so difficult to forecast because there are so many things to consider. All you can do is follow the forecasts, read opinions and wait to see what falls out of the sky. It sometimes really does come down to now casting. Would love to be able to forecast snow for you but sorry I can't

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rowieboyz Newbie

rowieboyz

Posted
  • Location: Princetown Dartmoor
  • Location: Princetown Dartmoor
Posted

Right guys I have been out all day and guessing the snow for Friday has been downgraded? Is it just rain for all us in devon and Cornwall?

Jase

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Lewesdon Apprentice

Lewesdon

Posted
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Winter- Cold, frost, snow. Summer- Warm and thundery.
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
Posted

It might snow. A lot!

Thank you and excellent.
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

-2.5c and falling.. Finaly a hard frost to suck the heat out of the ground for snowmagedon weekend... good.gif

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chapmanslade Community Regular

chapmanslade

Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
Posted

TG nobody knows for certain, these battleground style events are so difficult to forecast because there are so many things to consider. All you can do is follow the forecasts, read opinions and wait to see what falls out of the sky. It sometimes really does come down to now casting. Would love to be able to forecast snow for you but sorry I can't

Absolutely spot on - a few hundred feet of altitude and 20 miles can make all the difference. The snow event here at the end of November gave 2cm here and 10cm 8 miles away. Even frontal snow has varying intensity over short distances (as does rain but it is less obvious) giving significantly different depths. I would prefer the front to stall out west really - far less risky for future snow. We had 30cm here in 2010 from 3 'minor features' from the east with no thaw in between.

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124alex Rookie

124alex

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

Temp: 1.5c Dewpint Oc

and nice clear skies!

Heres to Friday, come upgrades or downgrades.

the weather is the way it is! but i am sure we will see something this winter

whether its friday or next friday :D

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

I have just got in from work and have read all 12 pages.

I have chosen to only read and believe:

  • Snowmageddon
  • Blizzards throughout the SW which will look pretty and not spoil the enjoyment
  • Feet and feet of snow
  • 36 hours of constant snow
  • Snowman competition, the winner wins a large bottle of whisky courtesy of Mullender.

That about sums it up for me. :D

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Jason74 Enthusiast

Jason74

Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
Posted (edited)

:-(

Really think Devon/Cornwall will get a significant snow event before this winter says adios. Can feel it in me water good.gif

EDIT: and Dorset:-)

Edited by Jason74
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Lewesdon Apprentice

Lewesdon

Posted
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Winter- Cold, frost, snow. Summer- Warm and thundery.
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
Posted

Or it might not!

Ah well, there tis.
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