South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[AWD]

18z isn't going to be too nice for us, but hey ho. Quite happy to wait until tomorrow before looking into the models to deeply again.

No point looking at every run with precision.

Actually, spoke to soon. Aside from minuscule detail, the 18z is fine. Still snow on Friday, away from Cornwall and parts of Devon.

Think I best call it a night now.

[cirendaz]

that model thread is confusing. one person said low moved south and west, another person said moved north and east.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just can't keep up at the moment! Someone with more knowledge than me (not hard) please help......... Every time there is good news regarding getting snow, there is equal bad news some where else. BBC web site forecast downgarded South Coast to Sleet, while MetO App upgarded to heavey snow! (Friday). Anyone got any offers?

Cheers all

Hi there.

Snow forecasting is very difficult at such a long range but here are my thoughts from earlier. Should anybody else need a catch up, do please read.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2505801

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

Ok i was wrong its better.

You will do yourself damage watching frame by frame lol

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Evening all, i haven't had much chance to look at the forum today, starting to wish i hadnt bothered. There are many things I love about Devon but the lack of snow isn't one of them.

As it's looking very possible that the far SW will miss out again, can anybody tell me if they can see any silver linings waiting for us in FI? Can't quite understand from the MOD thread where we may be heading after this weekend. The more shots we get at this the better.

I'm still happy that some of you are still in with a chance, would't want the SE to hog all the snow.

[GazzzaV6]

Hi there.

Snow forecasting is very difficult at such a long range but here are my thoughts from earlier, should anybody else need a catch up.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2505801

Thank you!!

[Iceberg]

18z puts the cold air a further 40 miles or so further west and stalls the snow over us more

Also an even better jet angle than the 12z gfs for the weekend

[gottolovethisweather]

seems to hit a brick wall at +60

and i smell South East flow at +72

What a terrible pub run.

Just shows why folk should never really comment until the run is well underway, even it is bloody tempting to do so.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[kumquat]

LOL - what's wrong with you guys - bit of jumping the gun there

[Wilxy]

this is going to be a good run angle of jet better.

[AWD]

If all the 0z models show the 18z scenario tomorrow I will be a happy man!

Yes, that includes the NAE!

[Chris K]

that model thread is confusing. one person said low moved south and west, another person said moved north and east.

Yea it gets a bit frantic because people are commenting on every single frame right from the start. It's worth waiting a while to give time for people to criticize each other and once that's settled you'll (hopefully) get a clearer picture haha.

[lfcdude]

Wiltshire Somerset Dorset.. Looks to be the sweet spot?

[AWD]

Wiltshire Somerset Dorset.. Looks to be the sweet spot?

Oi, and Bristol?

[Wilxy]

This is going to be the best run so far for snow and cold in the SW.

[Beast of Plympton]

Evening all, i haven't had much chance to look at the forum today, starting to wish i hadnt bothered. There are many things I love about Devon but the lack of snow isn't one of them.

As it's looking very possible that the far SW will miss out again, can anybody tell me if they can see any silver linings waiting for us in FI? Can't quite understand from the MOD thread where we may be heading after this weekend. The more shots we get at this the better.

I'm still happy that some of you are still in with a chance, would't want the SE to hog all the snow.

Hi Snow Crystal,

I don't think its all down the toilet. If you look at the Met Office and BBC website it has snow forecast from 6 am friday right until saturday night. I know your eluvation is a little lower than mine but even where you are, altitude makes a difference. I think it is wait and see job for friday.

[chris55]

Much better 18z for us lot!!! Much slower band, better angle, less eastward progression!! All good.

[Beasterly]

Precipitation shown to be falling as snow even to the far south west. However, these models are terrible though. 18z seems to be better than 12z!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Beasterly

[lfcdude]

Oi, and Bristol?

Haha yes Bristol to

[Sainsbo]

Wiltshire Somerset Dorset.. Looks to be the sweet spot?

Agreed!! I'm goig to be too scared to check this thread in the morning Just incase anything's changed <.<

Currently -4C.

[suxer]

18z isn't going to be too nice for us, but hey ho. Quite happy to wait until tomorrow before looking into the models to deeply again.

No point looking at every run with precision.

Kneejerk

[karlos1983]

What a terrible pub run.

Just show why folk should never really comment until the run is well underway, even it is bloody tempting to do so.

I should heed my own advice

[iceman1991]

Matt just said on bbc weather southern and western parts most at risk for snow on fri

[Frosty_wsm]

18z puts the cold air a further 40 miles or so further west and stalls the snow over us more

Also an even better jet angle than the 12z gfs for the weekend

And that is a trend I can really see continuing in subsequent runs, if one looks back at similar battleground scenarios the models do tend to over estimate the eastwards progression.

[Beast of Plympton]

This is going to be the best run so far for snow and cold in the SW.

Do you reckon the higher levels of devon will get lucky?