South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[slinky1989]

BBC updated the forecast for Swindon 40 minutes ago - Still going for a snowy theme with no rain in sight yet.

Netweather's local forecast also has us in the snow for at least 24 hours as well!

It's definitely a case of I'll believe it when I see it, but still quite excited!

[Beast of Plympton]

Well looking a bit better for far south west from what I can see.... Not holding my breath yet as will probably chane a few times yet, but a bit more happy now!!

[alijoe]

Ian F is only posting that synopsis based on current thinking. For us, predicting snowfall is as good as impossible at even <t+12 or thereabouts. Here is my general view of things as things stand based on the 12z GFS.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2505801

Aw thank you for taking the reply to answer, will go and have a good old read before bed now.

[SilverWolf]

And it can drive you (speaking for myself in this case) to drink.

There'll be an upgrade from cider to cognac if Friday comes of and Saturday is cold enough to keep it all. Good luck everyone.

[DanDorsetUK]

Ok just got back from a night out can someone bring me up to speed with tonights run, whats going on, not looked at any charts yet! Good or bad?

[Nights King]

Oh my word... Just come on and started reading from where i left off many pages back and sank in my chair at the uttering of downgrade only to nearly knock my thatchers katy all over my keyboard on the next page...

Please look like this in models same time wednesday evening and thursday...

[DanDorsetUK]

Good god! Just read through the posts lets hope things stay the same!!! The is epic!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Ok just got back from a night out can someone bring me up to speed with tonights run, whats going on, not looked at any charts yet! Good or bad?

Basically, tonight's charts carried on where the 12zs left off, if not better for some.

Feet firmly on the ground though, as a lot can change.

Stick with the afternoon runs tomorrow as history tells me that they will be closer to the mark.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

Is it safe to say il see some falling snow this weekend?

[gottolovethisweather]

Is it safe to say il see some falling snow this weekend?

[DanDorsetUK]

Basically, tonight's charts carried on where the 12zs left off, if not better for some.

Feet firmly on the ground though, as a lot can change.

Stick with the afternoon runs tomorrow as history tells me that they will be closer to the mark.

I dont know wether to laugh or cry, love the snow, but sudden realization i wont be able to earn a living at this rate!! I work outside for my job! Its gone to good fun to being quite serious event! With next week still looking cold, I think it will downgrade a bit it always does, you usually go for the average between all runs and find the middle ground, but even the middle ground still looks epic!

[Chris K]

Is it safe to say il see some falling snow this weekend?

Not yet The trend is there for some decent snowfall for some areas, particularly the further NE you are. However further shifts from the models could easily change the situation either way. I'd say we would have a reasonable idea by Thursday evening...but there will still be changes right up to T+0.00001 haha.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Chris K

[kernowman]

Can't believe the forecast for Friday, snow everywhere in the South West apart from us in Cornwall.

[kumquat]

Amazingly cold pub run right out into FI, sliders and re-loads galore. Might even get a visit from the pink one-eyed snow monster:

[gottolovethisweather]

Some wise words, courtesy of Paul Sherman on the SE thread.

• I think what a lot of people in here have got to realise it and Darren (Kold) touched upon it earlier this evening, these are NOT your normal synoptics, unless you were born Pre 1982 you probably will not remember these types of cold spells, yes in those days the blocks were so huge the Atlantic took 3 maybe even 4 attempts to get through but when it did end it was an almighty snowstorm, so what if the block holds firm this weekend, who cares and what would be the pay off, pretty decent if you ask me.
  

• If that low undercuts, and then heads off east through France it will drag in an Easterly or East North Easterly, so there is your pay off.
  

• Please have a look at the archived charts from winter 1979, 1982 and others throughout the 1980's and you will see how these Synoptic Set Ups played out!
  

• 
  

[Wilxy]

Not yet The trend is there for some decent snowfall for some areas, particularly the further NE you are. However further shifts from the models could easily change the situation either way. I'd say we would have a reasonable idea by Thursday evening...but there will still be changes right up to T+0.00001 haha.

Second that!

[Chris K]

Without trying to do Ian's posts for him and deflating the GFS 18z extraordinaire, a point worth noting from his twitter just now:

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

Met Office output somewhat different to GFS for Friday: more progressive pushing snow thro W Country with rain following. Still v uncertain.

Moreover: Met Office feeds a blustery, (somewhat) less cold showery story into W Country for weekend & no further extensive snow potential.

The words 'very uncertain' being the key phrase.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Chris K

[khodds]

Don't read Ian's latest twitter updates.

Edit: beaten to it!

Edited January 15, 2013 by khodds

[Nights King]

Well a bone chilling frost setting in tonight!

-4.5c so far with a slow fall so a couple of days like this and surface temperatures will be very conducive for settling snow! Now we just need the atlantic to play ball.

Another interesting thing is I have no heating oil left and have had none for last week as no heavy goods vehicles can drive up slope because they just re-surfaced it, which means I'm living on electric radiators in main living space for another week and damn the house is feeling cold! 12/14c i manage at moment and single figures over night. costing me 15 quid a day to try and heat a few rooms

Never mind its all for a good cause! Bring it on!

[karlos1983]

I'm drained, I'm dreading looking at the models tomorrow morning, I always do when something good has come out on the pub run...but that won't deter me, see you'all tomorrow and if we see the charts like this on Thursday, check on your neighbor!

[gottolovethisweather]

Amazingly cold pub run right out into FI, sliders and re-loads galore. Might even get a visit from the pink one-eyed snow monster:

I'm guessing the SSW must have come into sight of the various model suites.

Haven't been in that particular thread for a while and to be fair, I don't understand half of it anyhow.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[khodds]

Right. I'm off to take my tranquillisers. Good night all!

[DanDorsetUK]

Seen Ian Fergussons tweet just now? Met office feeds a blustery less cold showery story into w country for weekend and no further extensive snow potential.

lol also beaten to it

Edited January 15, 2013 by Rapodo

[gottolovethisweather]

Well a bone chilling frost setting in tonight!

-4.5c so far with a slow fall so a couple of days like this and surface temperatures will be very conducive for settling snow! Now we just need the atlantic to play ball.

Another interesting thing is I have no heating oil left and have had none for last week as no heavy goods vehicles can drive up slope because they just re-surfaced it, which means I'm living on electric radiators in main living space for another week and damn the house is feeling cold! 12/14c i manage at moment and single figures over night. costing me 15 quid a day to try and heat a few rooms

Never mind its all for a good cause! Bring it on!

That needs to be sorted quickly. I must say my sister recently had hers topped up and was virtually told to buy it when mild weather is occurring as like I thought, up they hike it when any sign of colder air is ensuing.

[Bumpkin]

Had to pick my Son up from work at 10pm and the lanes were already icy, not looking forward to going out first thing tomorrow.

As for Friday it is best to keep emotions in check and not to get excited by good runs or get upset by bad ones. You can tell by what Ian has been saying how difficult it is to forecast. Maybe Thursday we will have a better idea or it might come down to sticking your head out of the window on Friday and see what comes down.