South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[somersetwolf]

Quick round up, all of the models IMO show snow for most of the sw on Friday, there is very little doubt that the likes of east Somerset and eastwards in our region will see 12 hrs of snow. The uncertainty is whether Devon etc gets snow and whether the front will stall oer the sw or more quickly move eastwards. There is still model disagreement over this.

Re a breakdown there is no agreement on a breakdown to mild weather. We are only looking at a breakdown to less cold and all models are really showing the cold to last beyond the weekend in some form or another.

Personally I think Devon will see snow at some point, that the front will stall of parts of the sw. I think that precip totals will be 20cm or more for 50 percent of the sw people.

I think the meto will upgrade to an amber warning for some of the sw later this morning and to a red tomorrow if things stay as are.

Nae develops a small feature ahead of the band which complicates things but isn't tht far off the gfs IMHO and is certainly an improvement.

Morning Iceberg,

Thanks for an excellent post.

Is Bath in a favoured spot? Just asking, as it may scupper my plans - which I don't mind as I would prefer to be out in the snow!

Thanks

[PompeyFC]

Met office now have us down for sleet Friday daytime :-( it was showing heavy and light snow last night.

yes, apparently Exeter reckon that the UKMO is too progressive and therefore have drawn the fax chart striking a balance....hmmmmmmmm

Means the winds are south rather than SSE or SE which is what we want (SSE/S) for the low to undercut, the air will be modified alot more with a southerly influence off the sea

Edited January 16, 2013 by PompeyFC

[DanDorsetUK]

Oh well meto have my area downgraded this morning to sleet all day in bournemouth

[Ali1977]

Bbc show more snow central and north Britain compared to GFS graphics which keeps heaviest in SW central area...strange

[Sainsbo]

No snow for south west according to bbc weather

this morning.

Is that the whole of the SouthWest, or just Devon/Cornwall?

[Jet Streak]

Hi Jay from Creekmoor Poole, GFS is a corker for Dorset no change please!!

[textmum]

Nearest weather station reports down to -5.6C, currently -4.5C dew point 6.6

Nice thick white frost outside, glad I am not car scrapping!

Let it snow let it snow let it snow .............please

[latitude]

Only -1.8 IMBY Yatton North Somerset. Still waiting for some much colder temperatures.

I was very supprised by the difference in the two forecasts from yesterday evening.

Ian's forecast at 7.00 pm had temperatures below freezing on Friday showing snow for three days.

At 10.30pm local and national really showed how marginal it could be.

Im sure the forecasts will be different again today, but this will be very marginal for Devon. The temperature as shown on TV hits 5 degrees in Plymouth throughout the forecast. DP's will come into it, but could be very slushy.

We will see....

[Coast]

Is Swindon area still due snow fri to sun? Or more sleety

You are just on the boarder there currently:

But these precip charts are notoriously fickle, going to be down to radar watching again!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Coast

[liam300]

Well moving on to Sunday it hits 7c the met office say. WOW, big change.

[microclimate]

The BBC forecast this morning shows the front moving right across the country on Friday rather than slowly encroaching from the West, if this happens it is bound to impact on whether, if we get snow initially, it turns to rain. It seems quite a big turn round in terms of the fronts progress, personally I hope it is too progressive, we need it to stall over us really.

Still couple of days off, who knows, I'm keeping everything crossed and keep reminding myself they always under-forecast snow in this area rather than over-forecast...........i.e we often have surprise falls but seldom have snow forecast that is actually rain.

[dancing daisy]

What has happened to our snow? BBC are showing nothing for the SW! When I went to bed 7 hours ago we were having a whiteout.

Local BBC weather is showing snow. Tres confused now!

Edited January 16, 2013 by dancing daisy

[Mark Parsons]

Met office now have us down for sleet Friday daytime :-( it was showing heavy and light snow last night.

Yes,it's all looking further east and north this morning so the usual misconception of an event happening.

[divadee]

Always the bridesmaids never the brides springs to mind for us here.

You never know. A surprise when we awake Friday morning would be nice! I don't care about it lasting until sat/sun. Just to see snowfall would be wonderful.

[TimMB]

Is that the whole of the SouthWest, or just Devon/Cornwall?

According to the BBC, all of the South West.

[Coast]

Always the bridesmaids never the brides springs to mind for us here.

You never know. A surprise when we awake Friday morning would be nice! I don't care about it lasting until sat/sun. Just to see snowfall would be wonderful.

I see no reason to be despondent yet Dee, in fact I wouldn't hold back from a little excitement!

[Mark Parsons]

Always the bridesmaids never the brides springs to mind for us here.

You never know. A surprise when we awake Friday morning would be nice! I don't care about it lasting until sat/sun. Just to see snowfall would be wonderfu

I think we will struggle to see snow by the coast unless the undercut is more S/EASTERLY

e

[divadee]

I see no reason to be despondent yet Dee, in fact I wouldn't hold back from a little excitement!

😱 Have you got a secret webcam on me???????

[Iceberg]

Yes quite confused by the NBC graphics used by carol this morning.

Local weather keeps the snow for us, meto has 12 hrs of heavy snow for me and 12hrs of light snow fri sat.

Fax charts which have come out in the last 2 hrs keep everything further west than carols saying stalling the front over our western region.

Still nothing to indicate mild or even average though with 850s avg not higher than -4 for the next 10 days according to gfs

[latitude]

I havent seen the forecast this morning.

But as I said on my earlier post the BBC/METO have been showing temps of +5 throughout their forecast, the -5 850 line gets pushed out even on the GFS run.

It looked very marginal from the start, and it seems the METO are now forecasting just that.

[DanDorsetUK]

Lil bit worried about the sleet forecast now, but i dont think it will come in as quick as they are saying, there will big changes between now n then anyway

[Coast]

😱 Have you got a secret webcam on me???????

I still think quite a few members in here will be pleased with what Friday brings

[jessandjon]

Hmmm bbc weather seemed to have the white stuff miss the south west!!!! But the infamous met check have me down for snow for a couple of days met office says temps if about 6-7 and lots of rain?

[quantock girl]

Yes quite confused by the NBC graphics used by carol this morning.

Local weather keeps the snow for us, meto has 12 hrs of heavy snow for me and 12hrs of light snow fri sat.

Fax charts which have come out in the last 2 hrs keep everything further west than carols saying stalling the front over our western region.

Still nothing to indicate mild or even average though with 850s avg not higher than -4 for the next 10 days according to gfs

If you're confused by the graphics how do you think some of us feel!

It is only wednesday, we have 48hrs to go. Therefore the Prozac is on the table but still in its shiny packet.

It could change

it could stall

SE winds could pep up and help pivot the front

we might have a chance Sunday????

[liam300]

isn't the GFS run left by itself at the moment with the others backing the UKMO?

Edited January 16, 2013 by liam300