South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[Beast of Plympton]

What has happened to our snow? BBC are showing nothing for the SW! When I went to bed 7 hours ago we were having a whiteout.

Local BBC weather is showing snow. Tres confused now!

Noticed the same.... TBH, I don't think even they know so covering there bums!!

How many times have you got snow and said " Didn't expect that"? For me, more often than not. The models are showing different things, I think a few suprises may be in store for all this weekend

[TheHumph]

Well moving on to Sunday it hits 7c the met office say. WOW, big change.

I don't buy how it's going to be 7c on Sunday. The ECM/UKMO etc are showing the cold to continue and with lying snow I don't see how the temps can rise that quickly. It's probably taking into account raw data from the GFS which will not have been re-modelled by the Met Office and Sunday is still way off yet in terms of weather!

[DanDorsetUK]

I dont think the small front is helping on thursday seems to push temps up quite high before friday. By tomorrow afternoon we will know for sure

[cerneman]

Very frosty, Most striking Red sky , Carol Kirkwood [bBC Weather] off my Christmas card list

[Frank Trough]

i wonder how conditions (i.e. temp, 850's, dewpoint) are forecast to compare with the february event last year? my memory isn't that good, but it was certainly rain here (bournemouth) with the wind coming straight in off the sea.

[Karl83]

Morning all - haven't checked models yet but judging by some of the posts it seems there has been a down grade? Still 2 days to go so fingers crossed for upgrades.

Like to add what a nice frosty morning it is out there. Awesome.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Karl83

[Beast of Plympton]

Well summary for IMBY

Netweather - Snow early friday, turning to sleet, then snow all day saturday.

Met Office - Heavy snow friday morning, light snow later in the day, a bit on saturday

BBC - Heavy snow all day saturday, sleet and snow mix all day saturday.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm This just goes to show how unpredictable this event is. I think personally, the facts are this.

The UK is going to get some snow, it may stop over the soutwest, it may not. It may go all the way to the east. I think the big forecasts are trying to give us an idea but "idea" being the operative worth.

Just to add more into the mix, Carol's main forecast says it misses the southwest and Emily Wood on Spotlight said significant snowfall on Friday!

[Coast]

Morning all - haven't checked models yet but judging by some of the posts it seems there has been a down grade? Still 2 days to go so fingers crossed for upgrades.

Nope, it's just the ups and downs of human emotion and interpretation. Wait until Friday and most of you guys will be beaming!!!

[jessandjon]

Red sky in the morning shepherds warning, I wonder what that could be???

[DanDorsetUK]

Well some conflicting mo forecasts going on ferndown which is in bournemouth still saying heavy snow but bournemouth says sleet. glad im nearer ferndown!

[jessandjon]

Well summary for IMBY

Netweather - Snow early friday, turning to sleet, then snow all day saturday.

Met Office - Heavy snow friday morning, light snow later in the day, a bit on saturday

BBC - Heavy snow all day saturday, sleet and snow mix all day saturday.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm This just goes to show how unpredictable this event is. I think personally, the facts are this.

The UK is going to get some snow, it may stop over the soutwest, it may not. It may go all the way to the east. I think the big forecasts are trying to give us an idea but "idea" being the operative worth.

Just to add more into the mix, Carol's main forecast says it misses the southwest and Emily Wood on Spotlight said significant snowfall on Friday!

Good luck to you!!!! :-)

[wormster33]

Can visibly see the red-tinged shower clouds now that are heading from the east into the IOW from radar. Wind direction perfect now. Expecting a light shower in less than an hour. Local temp -1.1 here.

Edited January 16, 2013 by wormster33

[cerneman]

Red sky in the morning shepherds warning, I wonder what that could be???

The Sheep are revolting

[Evie]

Snow was forecast for Exeter by met last night on Friday, this morning at 5am it said sleet and now at 8am it's saying heavy rain saying 4c right now but feels a lot colder and striking red sky.

[Tam]

Good morning everyone, what a lovely frosty morning out there

[Bristawl Si]

Latest models do seem to suggest everything's been shifted a little north, not just for Friday either.

But we're defo now in Nowcast territory - these types of snow/rain, Cold/mild situs invariable chop & change, esp for those of us in the West (atlantic influence and all that).

Different year, same situ. Well, that's how i see it anyway.

Yday's model runs seemed to paint a picture of cold, snow for a week or so, at times.

I'm sure things will change again.

Looking at the Mad disc thread it seems those 'rogue' NAE runs from yday with precipitation into our area from Thurs, are not that 'rogue' anymore. Not a good sign, as it does show the slightly milder air is more robust, in my view, to make an early incursion.

We're now in the 'Wait & See what happens' phase, i feel - maybe we were always in that phase!

[Beast of Plympton]

Good luck to you!!!! :-)

Thanks mate!!

[Tam]

Latest from IanF

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Confidence now increasing re disruptive snow Friday. Potential for 12hrs snow across @bbcpointswest region frm Fri AM to Fri night

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Met Office modelling suggests 60-80% probability highest snowfall frm Exmoor extendIng E & N across most of@bbcpointswest region

Liking the sound of that

[latitude]

If you SW members havent got the Netweather Radar I suggest you buy it if you can!

[DanDorsetUK]

Argh thats it i cant look anymore till tomorrow up down up down. what will be will be cant cope with the wild swings anymore lol

[Iceberg]

yep like the latest tweet from Ian and much more inline with model output. Carols graphics seem way of the mark tbh but maybe its more of a softening exercise to get people to concentrate of snow. Still she should have shown the sw as snow as it would prevent all the silly confusion the forecast has caused.

[Iceberg]

Ian has just said to continue ignoring the raw output from the nae, this ties in with the charts etc. I have a feeling that carols forecast then was prepared before the fax charts and the senior forecaster on duty digested all the 00Z output and they though it best to warn people and show widespread snow graphics.

[fromey]

yep like the latest tweet from Ian and much more inline with model output. Carols graphics seem way of the mark tbh but maybe its more of a softening exercise to get people to concentrate of snow. Still she should have shown the sw as snow as it would prevent all the silly confusion the forecast has caused.

I think now we should just stick with ian f and the info he is giving right now and uptil friday.

-4.1c here at the moment

fromey

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Latest from IanF

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Confidence now increasing re disruptive snow Friday. Potential for 12hrs snow across @bbcpointswest region frm Fri AM to Fri night

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Met Office modelling suggests 60-80% probability highest snowfall frm Exmoor extendIng E & N across most of@bbcpointswest region

Liking the sound of that

Now. .

Can everyone stop over annalising the met o charts they change like the clappers , just relax !

[theprophecyman]

Ian has just said to continue ignoring the raw output from the nae, this ties in with the charts etc. I have a feeling that carols forecast then was prepared before the fax charts and the senior forecaster on duty digested all the 00Z output and they though it best to warn people and show widespread snow graphics.

Fair point I guess, but if this was the case I would have also expected the METO to widen their Yellow alerts for this Friday??