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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

A.J

By A.J
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SNOWYLAD Newbie

SNOWYLAD

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

This morning online met office text forecast says snow Friday and Saturday with no mention of rain until Sunday, also mentions frosts in the east of the region over the weekend. I think it's going to continue to change forecast by forecast until weekend. Ian F's comments on Twitter last night seem at odds to other forecasts from Met.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Slight changes overnight, currently prefer GFS as an all snow event,over UKMO Marginal west and south, then ECM is the wrong side of marginal if you ask me.

But the message is, it could have been alot worse, I was expecting a lot worse.

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SNOWYLAD Newbie

SNOWYLAD

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

Slight changes overnight, currently prefer GFS as an all snow event,over UKMO Marginal west and south, then ECM is the wrong side of marginal if you ask me.

But the message is, it could have been alot worse, I was expecting a lot worse.

I think living where we are we have to take anything we can get! 2009/2010 were rare winters for here and probably a 15/20 year event, though we had one after the other.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

I think living where we are we have to take anything we can get! 2009/2010 were rare winters for here and probably a 15/20 year event, though we had one after the other.

Well if the GFS is correct, this will be epic, but I am more intent to go with UKMO, it's been pretty bang on, last week when no model knew where to go, the UKMO led the way and stuck to its guns.

I'll be happy with 6 hours of snow, but that is a big ask IMBY unless we have a raging easily, or I go and fill the channel with ice cubes....... Hmm now there's a though ....

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

Well if the GFS is correct, this will be epic, but I am more intent to go with UKMO, it's been pretty bang on, last week when no model knew where to go, the UKMO led the way and stuck to its guns.

I'll be happy with 6 hours of snow, but that is a big ask IMBY unless we have a raging easily, or I go and fill the channel with ice cubes....... Hmm now there's a though ....

Can I just ask, show me a detailed chart to show fri event been the wrong side of marginal?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

How's this then?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but -3 uppers don't scream snow and +96 isn't much better?

post-16760-0-88755700-1358319731_thumb.j

Edited by karlos1983
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TheHumph Apprentice

TheHumph

Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
Posted

Can I just ask, show me a detailed chart to show fri event been the wrong side of marginal?

Hi SSIB, I think some people are taking some of the raw data being modelled as gospel. The Met office will use the experience of senior forecasters to re-model (?) the data, hence Fax charts etc. are probably more accurate at this stage. It's going to be great to see how things pan out though. Thanks for all you're comments and your efforts in trying to keep us all sane!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Look guys, I'm not being down beat, I'm just commenting on what I'm seeing, and please look at my question mark, meaning question? Calm down Jesus Christ

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted

Well temps reached approx -4 last night so confirming that "entrenched cold " has arrived. BBC weather taken a bold step this morning both nationally and locally on south today outlining "significant snow " for Friday.... Hmm. So what happens of it turns mainly to rain?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Yep, that looks like a white out post to merofl.gif

I have to comment then edit and attach when on iPad

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

How's this then?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but -3 uppers don't scream snow and +96 isn't much better?

Karlos if you take a look at the t48 nae chart can look at the -3 850 on that then look to see what dps are under that -3 you might be very surprised.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted (edited)

How's this then?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but -3 uppers don't scream snow and +96 isn't much better?

It screams you haven't been listening .

In a situation like this you don't need very cold uppers, you have deep cold, and a southeasterly element to the air, the due points are far more important, the dew points will be -3 when the ppn comes, along with very low air temps , you can have heavy snow with -850's at -0/-1 , don't panick matey!

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Karlos if you take a look at the t48 nae chart can look at the -3 850 on that then look to see what dps are under that -3 you might be very surprised.

Thanks Iceberg, appreciate that, still learning and at least you pointed me in the right direction!

Ps I woke to find no coffee in my house this morning, bad times

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divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
Posted

Good morning all. We got done to -4.5 here last night.

Now showing -2.1 with a dp of -2

Roll on today with the twists and turns we are bound to face!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

It screams you haven't been listening .

In a situation like this you don't need very cold uppers, you have deep cold, and a southeasterly element to the air, the due points are far more important, the dew points will be -3 when the ppn comes, along with very low air temps , you can have heavy snow with -850's at -0/-1 , don't panick matey!

Cheers, I have listened an incredible amount lately, clearly not slept enough!

Tail truly between legs now!

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Quick round up, all of the models IMO show snow for most of the sw on Friday, there is very little doubt that the likes of east Somerset and eastwards in our region will see 12 hrs of snow. The uncertainty is whether Devon etc gets snow and whether the front will stall oer the sw or more quickly move eastwards. There is still model disagreement over this.

Re a breakdown there is no agreement on a breakdown to mild weather. We are only looking at a breakdown to less cold and all models are really showing the cold to last beyond the weekend in some form or another.

Personally I think Devon will see snow at some point, that the front will stall of parts of the sw. I think that precip totals will be 20cm or more for 50 percent of the sw people.

I think the meto will upgrade to an amber warning for some of the sw later this morning and to a red tomorrow if things stay as are.

Nae develops a small feature ahead of the band which complicates things but isn't tht far off the gfs IMHO and is certainly an improvement.

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted

Temps reached -4.6C last night, still not the coldest of the winter though. I think tonight might reach -6 here. As for the mention of snow, I'm too scared to look at the models, but as we are getting closer, and it still looks snowy, in my area atleast, it does make me feel soemwhat confidence that some of us will get to see something.

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divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
Posted

Met office now have us down for sleet Friday daytime :-( it was showing heavy and light snow last night.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Is Swindon area still due snow fri to sun? Or more sleety

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Ferndown shows Heavy snow, wouldn't worry about detail yet.

Found some coffee

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted
Is Swindon area still due snow fri to sun? Or more sleety

We're still much in the firing line! BBC and MetO have us down for snow from Midday Friday to Saturday evening! Much time for change though.

Met office now have us down for sleet Friday daytime :-( it was showing heavy and light snow last night.

That sucks :/ There's still time for things to change for the better though! :D

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