South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[pyrotech]

At this time it looks like the NAE model was the form horse. Obviously plenty of time for an upgrade but i think to avoid any further disapointment we need to take in Ians comments, take note of latest BBC (main forecast) which Shows rain west of Bristol and South Of Brecon Beacons.

The positive to take is that the models will not get this battle correct even in last few hours, and some margin of error will prevail, however that margin of error could be either way. Has the chief forecaster decided to take a medium between NAE and Mogreps or has mogreps jumped ship in its last run.

Lots of uncertainty and even GFS has some credability at this timeframe so all still to play for but my feet are firmly back on the ground, for now.

[Bumpkin]

I'm guessing the SSW must have come into sight of the various model suites.

Haven't been in that particular thread for a while and to be fair, I don't understand half of it anyhow.

From my understanding and from what i think Chio has said is that the after-effects of the ssw should start to be seen at the end of January/beginning of February. Impressive warming which has just started dropping.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Cirrostratus

[DanDorsetUK]

Well time to turn in, heres hoping for that tomorrows runs go good for all of us!!

[Frosty_wsm]

Don't read Ian's latest twitter updates.

Edit: beaten to it!

The 18z gfs is the first model run to show the band slowing and stalling, who's to say the 00 ukmo run won't show the same, there's every chance

[Dean E]

Evening guys!

Coldest night of this year here so far, -3.8c DP -7.9c

Chilllly!!!!

SM

[gottolovethisweather]

from my understanding and from what i think Chio has said is that the after-effects of the ssw should start to be seen at the end of January/beginning of February. ... impressive warming which has just started dropping.

Ah, that was what I last heard but bloody hell, what kind of February would we all be in for then.

Anyway, I don't usually hype things or at least I try not to, but these are epic synoptics just as Paul Sherman suggested.

Good stuff, I best log off.

Ta ta all.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

-0.5C, DP -3.79% Very hard frost outside and a dark, starry night.

I have done NO work today

[kumquat]

Might as well get the downgrades from the MO out the way now - so that it can all upgrade again in the reliable Night all!

[karlos1983]

Ian's latest tweets are ok by me. I'm not going to post as on iPhone now.

[rowieboyz]

Oh well, I think it's better to just expect cold rain than snow, if it turns out to be snow then great but if we get rain than we won't be too disappointed. Downgrades keep coming I'm sorry to say, it can all change though. Fingers crossed we all get snowed in lol

[snowphie]

Can't believe the forecast for Friday, snow everywhere in the South West apart from us in Cornwall.

The Met Office five day weather forecast has me down for light snow Thursday night, heavy snow Friday daytime and sleet in the evening.....that's Camelford to be precise :-)

Have to admit I'm waiting for it to change to rain :-(

[chris55]

Currently -5c here, brrrrr.

[chris55]

Hopefully the 00zs will continue with the trend to stall the front as per 18z!!!!

Night night all.

[124alex]

-2.3c here

[jethro]

Having just finished re-reading 'Frozen in Time', lived through the 1980/81 winter in the Cotswold's and dreamt of a repeat ever since, I just read through this thread......and now I'm expected sleep?????????

[Nights King]

I'm trying to sleep also Beth but laying here reading this on phone still and worrying its all going to go Pete tong again eek :-/

Darn auto correct haha bed not Beth

[jethro]

I'm trying to sleep also Beth but laying here reading this on phone still and worrying its all going to go Pete tong again eek :-/

Darn auto correct haha bed not Beth

Does that make me Jeth, Beth or Bed?

I've just done a really sad person, excited thing and totted up the daily amounts of snow forecast on NW extra for this area - 35mm, that's over a foot!!!!!!!!! OMG. I know it can still all go horribly wrong but I'm allowing myself to ignore all common sense and revel in an old woman's dreams of heaven.

Edited January 16, 2013 by jethro

[Nights King]

I give up jeth it's my jangled nerves and auto correct :-/

[Blizzardof82]

I'm trying to sleep also Beth but laying here reading this on phone still and worrying its all going to go Pete tong again eek :-/

Darn auto correct haha bed not Beth

I'm off to bed but no doubt will be checking phone for another half an hour then up early to see what GFS, METO and ECM throw at us overnight if we do get snow Friday I will be too bloody tired to enjoy it.

[jethro]

I give up jeth it's my jangled nerves and auto correct :-/

I don't know if I can cope, I just wish those damn models would stop dithering and make some sort of decision. I'm now banning myself from here until tomorrow, off to play a mind numbing game of solitaire to stop my over active imagination going into over time.

Night all, sweet dreams.

[Nights King]

Jeth just drift off thinking of the song... Rain drops keep falling on my head.... Makes the morning easier.. :-o

[gaztig]

Just watched the bbc weather on tv for Friday it shows rain in the whole sw with temps of 5c not good

[rockhopper]

Well if this turns out to be accurate I'll be a very happy chappy, I'm not going to get to worked up, I won't, I won't !! lol

Damn ramping weather forcast 95% possibilty eh

Edited January 16, 2013 by rockhopper

[Rob K]

Re Ian F's talk of Met O thoughts basically turning to rain south of the M4... the raw five-dayers with very latest data (updated 0000 Jan 16) don't seem to back that up, e.g. my area shows no rain symbols at all, just light or heavy snow from Fri evening right through to Saturday.

But no doubt will all change several times before D-day!

[kernowman]

Just watched the bbc weather on tv for Friday it shows rain in the whole sw with temps of 5c not good

I've got my barbecue out ready for Friday, cold what cold, it's positively tropical in the real South West.