North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ukmo has the front stalling across the irish sea

Seen some pretty big last min downgrades in my 10 years on this forum but i think this one will take the biscuit,why are the metoffice continuing with these warnings i have no idea unless they know summert the NAE/GFS and UKMO model doesn't????

[MrSunshine]

4am update from the Met Office, thing they're pretty convinced now.

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

4am update from the Met Office, thing they're pretty convinced now.

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

well dave i hope you and the meto are right,i dont see it looking at the NAE UKMO OR GFS but i'll buy you a virtual pint if yer on the money!!

[Mucka]

4am update from the Met Office, thing they're pretty convinced now.

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

Unfortunately the NAE gives us a dusting again this morning. Typically the South does far better than us.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Mucka

[MrSunshine]

well dave i hope you and the meto are right,i dont see it looking at the NAE UKMO OR GFS but i'll buy you a virtual pint if yer on the money!!

Mate I'm not trying to have an argument, but when was the last time you saw the Met Office issue something like this especially less than 24 hours out! No mention of rain, its an incredible forecast, snow from late tonight until late Saturday. Dry on Sunday then more snow on Monday!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Unfortunately the NAE gives us a dusting again this morning.

it sure does,and gfs doesnt look great either.

Either the meto/beeb have some data which we can't see or they are going to be doing some pretty rapid facesaving today,to be honest its a bit ridiculous they must have seen the NAE/GFS/UKMO runs so what on earth are they doing with the kind of update posted above at 4am today???

crazy

Mate I'm not trying to have an argument, but when was the last time you saw the Met Office issue something like this especially less than 24 hours out! No mention of rain, its an incredible forecast, snow from late tonight until late Saturday. Dry on Sunday then more snow on Monday!

it aint going to happen dave,ive seen enough to see whats going to happen and yes,yer right,the pros will look pretty silly by 5pm today when the backtracking begins imo.

[MrSunshine]

it sure does,and gfs doesnt look great either.

Either the meto/beeb have some data which we can't see or they are going to be doing some pretty rapid facesaving today,to be honest its a bit ridiculous they must have seen the NAE/GFS/UKMO runs so what on earth are they doing with the kind of update posted above at 4am today???

crazy

Because like it or not its GOING to happen, please people chill we are going to get some severe snow across the region for sure now.

[Mucka]

One thing that is clearly shown in this mornings output is the ppn band pivoting to a NW/SE orientation as it moves East. This is why in all the output the South now gets more snow than the North with the best places Wales and West Midlands by the look of things. I'm sure we will get some snow but anybody around Manchester on low ground expecting 10/15cm and drifts is going to be disappointed it seems.

[MrSunshine]

One thing that is clearly shown in this mornings output is the ppn band pivoting to a NW/SE orientation as it moves East. This is why in all the output the South now gets more snow than the North with the best places Wales and West Midlands by the look of things. I'm sure we will get some snow but anybody around Manchester on low ground expecting 10/15cm and drifts is going to be disappointed it seems.

Alright mate we'll have this conversation on Friday night ok. Got a feeling you'll be very quiet...

You should work for the Met! Only joking, mark my words upgrade later on today, already been told by a Met Office source for the whole region.

Edited January 17, 2013 by DaveMac82

[chicken soup]

Gfs looks hideous for us....meto a bit better, but still hope as the 4am update from met is still good .

[cfallon]

I am with dave on this one, I have seen an inside meto report for today through my work! The only thing they are unsure of is how much!

[MrSunshine]

Snow flakes are now falling here by the way.........

[cheshire snow]

Amber warnings are only give out by the METO in extreme circumstancies

Some people really need to get a grip,there is not one forecast i have seen

That does not suggest that NW England is not going to take a pasting tomorrow/Sat

And that includes the 0430 forecast i have just seen

Anyway after some of the twaddle i have read over the last few pages,dont think

i will bother on here for a few days,enjoy your snow wether it be 2cm or 15cm

C.S

Edited January 17, 2013 by cheshire snow

[Mucka]

Alright mate we'll have this conversation on Friday night ok. Got a feeling you'll be very quiet...

You should work for the Met! Only joking, mark my words upgrade later on today, already been told by a Met Office source for the whole region.

You will be allright no doubt, it is the Manchester region that will miss out on the big totals. I'm currently expecting around 5cm max for Stretford.

NW England covers some regions near the coast and further South, they will be okay. Prime spots North Wales and West Midlands.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Mucka

[MrSunshine]

You will be allright no doubt, it is the Manchester region that will miss out on the big totals. I'm currently expecting around 5cm max for Stretford.

NW England covers some regions near the coast and further South, they will be okay. Prime spots North Wales and West Midlands.

It's starting to snow here now, very unexpected!

[chicken soup]

On closer inspection of the meto precip charts its not to bad, it shows the snow still coming but moving in a lot slower fri into saturday, gem is also very good.

[cfallon]

I will have an updated meto report tonight for the emergency services and highways so will update you all tonight for Fridays events!

[Joe Bloggs]

00z GFS is ok... But my goodness I hope the NAE has this wrong. Manchester would barely get a dusting, if anything!

[MrSunshine]

00z GFS is ok... But my goodness I hope the NAE has this wrong. Manchester would barely get a dusting, if anything!

Look at the Met Office 4am update chill!

[Joe Bloggs]

Look at the Met Office 4am update chill!

I've already seen that. Hopefully they are disregarding the NAE for whatever reason.

The other models generally don't look too bad with a fairly active front.

Fingers crossed.

[The Northern Ramper]

Significant downgrade for the northwest, at this rate of changes it will be a damp squib for all area's.

[cfallon]

Significant downgrade for the northwest, at this rate of changes it will be a damp squib for all area's.

Based on?

[Beaufort12]

Matt hugo just tweeted a downgrade for nw england and that hes surprised by the MO latest fc for the area also says NI more in the frame for snow. sorry i cant link on my phone

[cfallon]

Matt hugo just tweeted a downgrade for nw england and that hes surprised by the MO latest fc for the area also says NI more in the frame for snow. sorry i cant link on my phone

Just see it pal! Slight dent in my confidence now I do rate matt

[Liam J]

Was hoping to see the models being a little more progressive with the front on the 00z runs, unfortunately not. the front appears to hit a brick wall against the cold block and pivot back, latest hi reso shows east Wales in a prime location for heaviest falls, a dusting in much of the region with areas around Cheshire southwards likely to see a bit more. Expect revisions to the Met warnings by midday and some of us won't like it.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Closer look, it seems as though the front develops a low pressure on it in the Irish Sea now and this takes precip away from NW Eng.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J