North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Brass_Monkeys]

Obvious disappointment this morning with the front expected to develop a low pressure in the Irish Sea. From looking at possible 20cm falls to being faced with the likelihood of 2cm!

Certainly a huge improvement for the guys in Ireland, both North and South.

To think only yesterday we were contemplating the prospect of near blizzard conditions!

[Weather-history]

This has happened before, so I was not holding my breath as I said last night on TWO not after the March 2004 debacle. At 10PM that night, the Met Office put out a severe weather warning for disruptive snow for our region, Diane Oxberry mention the threat of snow in her broadcast. I saw the radar at midnight thinking this was seriously going wrong. The snow had died out on our doorstep! And this was a nowcast that had gone pear-shaped, let alone 36 hours out. We got at most a few snow flurries the next morning.

I believe Diane Oxberry was embarrassed the next evening for the none snow.

[Ian Brown]

Local BBC forecast still talking about the amber warning for snow tomorrow.

This will be changed later and I would imagine much of the region will come out of the amber area with the exception of Merseyside, West Lancs and Chester sort of area. Obviously we are now subject to further Westward and Southward adjustments.

The problem is that as the secondary depression forms it pulls back the frontal advance on the Northern side of the front so the core of the PPN and the angle of the front change - wrongly for us.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Hc 0z still looks good for snow

[Liam J]

As Matt says the current Met Office forecasts look very odd now without question when compared to the overnight guidance even against their own FAX chart so expect amendments to filter into national forecasts through the morning , warnings generally get reviewed around 11am onwards.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

So whats happened in lamens terms. What will happen with the widnes st helens area

[Weather-history]

Manchester Airport latest TAF

long-TAF: EGCC 170500Z 1706/1812 15006KT 7000 FEW030 BECMG 1706/1709 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 1720/1724 5000 -SN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 1803/1809 3000 -SN BKN008 BECMG 1806/1809 1500 SN BR BKN005 TEMPO 1809/1812 0300 +SN VV///

[Liam J]

I'd say your still likely to get a dusting Peter but don't expect the blizzards and deep snow as the front now looks a very weak affair.

[Jan]

Morning all, just a quick look before work, and thankfully I wont really be able to check the charts today, too confusing. From a purely IMBY my area Nrth of Liverpool city centre looks ok, for now. Think I will stick to nowcasting and the good old lampost, I have 'wasted' so much time model watching these last few weeks, only to be let down and it looks like it could happen again..........I should stick to my dancing

[Joe Bloggs]

Hc 0z still looks good for snow

Hc?

[burylad12]

Bury / East lancs area looking at 2-5cm or less?

[HotCuppa]

Obvious disappointment this morning with the front expected to develop a low pressure in the Irish Sea. From looking at possible 20cm falls to being faced with the likelihood of 2cm!

Certainly a huge improvement for the guys in Ireland, both North and South.

To think only yesterday we were contemplating the prospect of near blizzard conditions!

would you rather have rain? thought not

Morning all, just a quick look before work, and thankfully I wont really be able to check the charts today, too confusing. From a purely IMBY my area Nrth of Liverpool city centre looks ok, for now. Think I will stick to nowcasting and the good old lampost, I have 'wasted' so much time model watching these last few weeks, only to be let down and it looks like it could happen again..........I should stick to my dancing

Liverpool and south of the region are fine, the problem lies with the north and the east..which doesn't affect us so much, still looks the same totals for us as yesterday.

Edited January 17, 2013 by HotCuppa

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

You can get over consumed with the models sometimes jan and things do change. But u can bet your life if it wernt cold we would be getting floods

[Oakwell]

Just goes to show how much uncertainty is present in forecasting, can only hope that what actually happens is slightly different than forecast and we get a reasonable couple of centimeters of snow

would you rather have rain? thought not

Liverpool and south of the region are fine, the problem lies with the north and the east..which doesn't affect us so much, still looks the same totals for us as yesterday.

I suppose look at the glass being half full rather than half empty

[AderynCoch]

Whatever happens, it will still snow. 2-5cm is better than nothing, and as others have mentioned southwestern parts of the region are still in with a good chance of heavier snow.

Can't afford more westward shifts though.

Edited January 17, 2013 by AderynCoch

[Liam J]

Totals look generally at least 10cm or more lower than yesterday across much of the region with many areas (further N+E) missing out completely. highest totals now focussed on East Wales and the high ground of Northern Ireland.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J

[Jan]

Liverpool and south of the region are fine, the problem lies with the north and the east..which doesn't affect us so much, still looks the same totals for us as yesterday.

Hmm but it is downgrading? We will have to wait and see,I have lost my rampness

[Munchermark]

After watchin the bbc forecast i honestly dont think I will see snow tomorrow

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just seen bbc forcast it doesnt even make it past cheshire gap

[HotCuppa]

Just seen bbc forcast it doesnt even make it past cheshire gap

what doesnt make it past the cheshire gap? i did not see the forecast

[Snow free zone]

Next week the e & ne winds set in. You can bet your house that won't change. About as much use for us as this fizzling front .....

[carl1980]

Just seen bbc forcast it doesnt even make it past cheshire gap

But at the end still has us in the Amber warning,she did say it would change later

[chris78]

ok so there still like a chance of snow for some of us....I think we have to accept while we might get snow ...a 'massive' event now looks unlikely...frustrating....but anyone who is shocked by this shouldnt be...rare events are rare for a reason....the lesson is when the models show anything very rare (the biggest storm ever, the snowiest chart ever the hottest spell ever)...assume the models are wrong!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

The front never gets past cheshire gap

[frankie01]

Morning all, just a quick look before work, and thankfully I wont really be able to check the charts today, too confusing. From a purely IMBY my area Nrth of Liverpool city centre looks ok, for now. Think I will stick to nowcasting and the good old lampost, I have 'wasted' so much time model watching these last few weeks, only to be let down and it looks like it could happen again..........I should stick to my dancing

i dont think they do mate. Massive shift to the south.Wales in the main firing line now.Im sure we might get a dusting but we are right on the egde of it now according to bbc