North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Liam J]

All thanks to the circulation that develops in the Irish sea, and as fronts pivot anti clockwise with low pressure then our hopes of snowmagedden get painfully pulled away.

[pip22]

I do not trust the today's forecast but I do trust the yesterday's one. Hopefully the yesterday's forecast will be right.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[HotCuppa]

think us in the south will still be okay, maybe not the totals we expected, but certainly better than nothing..wouldn't be remotely surprised to see convection affect the extreme west, liverpool etc

[Liam J]

I really hope this feature has been over done by the 00z's but I wouldn't hold your breath. Jeez I'll be happy with a dusting if I'm honest

[swainclubber]

I do not trust the today's forecast but I do trust the yesterday's one. Hopefully the yesterday's forecast will be right.

i trust none, no more models for me now. just a nowcast thing for me

[HotCuppa]

i trust none, no more models for me now. just a nowcast thing for me

i think thats the best we can do, im sure someone the other day said exactly the same thing, its very likely going to be a nowcast thing

I really hope this feature has been over done by the 00z's but I wouldn't hold your breath. Jeez I'll be happy with a dusting if I'm honest

I have to say that this is an extreme and quite strange change of events at extreme short notice.

[swainclubber]

i think thats the best we can do, im sure someone the other day said exactly the same thing, its very likely going to be a nowcast thing

sure is mate. its not worth the upset it causes. ill look at the charts that people post but i wont be hunting them down myself!!

[snowdrifter]

To me this sums up the NW when we get close to the reality of snow:

Though just maybe there's a secret compartment somewhere yet to be found. Charts change, weather changes. I am not going to look at anything else now till much later on today. My eyes, brain and emotions are just too scrambled now.

Edited January 17, 2013 by snowdrifter

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Can things change if it comes early

[benricky]

Itv forecast just now still has us under Amber warning. All is not lost as surely a national broadcast would reflect overnight changes?

[Weather-history]

Why are members using a BBC forecast's graphics to make a judgment? Look at the horse's mouth, the models themselves!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Can pretty much guarantee now that the yellow alert will slowly be peeled back from the East, the Amber will move over to Wales & Norther Ireland, and we will be left with 2-5CM at best. Thats IF the 00Z is correct with it's latest feature - and being only 24 hours away i'd like to say it's correct, but you never know.

If we were in the old Greek times we would all clearly have a Snow God called Blizzaradus & we would be cursing him right now!

[UV-RAY]

No surprises really the writing was on the wall last night, now when is the next front due.

[Weather-history]

but if it stands, this will be the biggest let down since I have been here... Oh the good ol' North West of England.

March 2004 was worse, this time you have been given notice...

[R.P. McMurphy]

Why are members using a BBC forecast's graphics to make a judgment? Look at the horse's mouth, the models themselves!

We are! The latest FAX is out, it shows the feature!!!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

@ weather history. Matt hugo said himself that there are models not available to general public that show y it has and will change

[R.P. McMurphy]

March 2004 was worse, this time you have been given notice...

I forgot about that... Didn't want reminding either :-( lol

[julie253]

Omg after all that excitement. Think I will just stay in bed with the curtains closed!!

[Liam J]

I have to say that this is an extreme and quite strange change of events at extreme short notice.

Yes very much so, extremely frustrating! The developing surface feature is obviously the spoiler here and the closer we get the models will be firming up on the specific details, much to our horror! I'll await the 6z runs to see if things look any better from GFS/NAE/NMM. Poor as things currently stand.

[Weather-history]

@ weather history. Matt hugo said himself that there are models not available to general public that show y it has and will change

I wouldn't use BBC graphics to make a judgement. I would use what is available to us and they outnumber the BBC graphics!

[R.P. McMurphy]

No surprises really the writing was on the wall last night, now when is the next front due.

Sunday Night into Monday! Still time for a let down though lol!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

I think were best being bline we always do better from sysems that never get on radar till they hit ys

[Liam J]

Weather history - Whilst I would normally advise against any BBC graphics and taking them as gospel they are now reflecting what is clear to see on the 00z model guidance.

[Brass_Monkeys]

At the moment the heaviest of the snow looks below a line from NI down to Central Southern counties. That line is likely to change as the exact track of the frontal system and developing LP in the Irish Sea is not 100% certain as yet.

There has been so much change in the Fax charts regarding this feature from run to run that I don't think we can be certain still that things will stay as they are.

It could all change for the better. Lets' not think about the other side of the coin

[Weather-history]

We are! The latest FAX is out, it shows the feature!!!

I'm talking about precipitation. Where, how far and how intense the precipitation is, I would not use BBC graphics to determine this, I would use GFS, NAM etc, that is what I'm referring to.