North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Brass_Monkeys]

would you rather have rain? thought not

This mornings picture is a far less snowy one in terms of widespread and disruptive snowfall. Of course there's still snow in the forecast and always the chance things turn out better than forecast

The 0400hrs updated Met forecast for our region is by no means grim reading:

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Edited January 17, 2013 by Brass_Monkeys

[HotCuppa]

Still, think we should be okay

[Liam J]

I doubt by 4am the Met will have analysed the 00z data for that forecast, the new guidance is now making it into the BBC broadcasts which use Met Office data. Hence Peter mentioning the front not making it past the Cheshire gap.

[HotCuppa]

This mornings picture is a far less snowy one in terms of widespread and disruptive snowfall. Of course there's still snow in the forecast and always the chance things turn out better than forecast

The 0400hrs updated Met forecast for our region is by no means grim reading:

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

(I'm sure they update this after the 00z runs)

I wonder though, where could this precipitation likely come from?according to the BBC North West forecast 2 mins ago, they seem to think further precipitation is expected which will push in later tonight and tomorrow? or are we looking at it now over wales and to move ne and to still affect the south?

Edited January 17, 2013 by HotCuppa

[Snowstorm nw]

This mornings picture is a far less snowy one in terms of widespread and disruptive snowfall. Of course there's still snow in the forecast and always the chance things turn out better than forecast

The 0400hrs updated Met forecast for our region is by no means grim reading:

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

(I'm sure they update this after the 00z runs)

[R.P. McMurphy]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL... Ok I'm done for the day.

[trickydicky]

It really doesn't matter what the circumstances are,if snow is in the forecast something will go wrong it would seem!

[Brass_Monkeys]

I doubt by 4am the Met will have analysed the 00z data for that forecast, the new guidance is now making it into the BBC broadcasts which use Met Office data. Hence Peter mentioning the front not making it past the Cheshire gap.

Yes, you're probably right Liam. Wishful thinking on my part (post edited above).

*Just to add - the local forecast has definitely changed from last night as the heavy snow symbols for my area have been replaced with light snow. So there certainly has been some sort of an update to the forecast. Perhaps the text forecast is yet to be amended?

Edited January 17, 2013 by Brass_Monkeys

[frankie01]

Liverpool airport "flying forecast" still expects heavy snow this evening

[Snowstorm nw]

Another downer then, I've always said it and I will say it again we should let nature take its cause.

The problem with everyone on this thread is we all love snow, it never really comes off. Not much to look forward to Another NON EVENT!

[HotCuppa]

Liverpool airport "flying forecast" still expects heavy snow this evening

convection is going to be a keyword today out there.

TAF updated at 5 am this morning for Liverpool airport

Edited January 17, 2013 by HotCuppa

[Bartlett Low]

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

[frankie01]

convection is going to be a keyword today out there.

TAF updated at 5 am this morning for Liverpool airport

im not very up on weather mate, a fair newby to be honest. I still think we are in with a shout despite the clear shift south.Wont get much though i dont expect.Anything upwards of a dusting is a right bonus.And theres always next week...haha

[HotCuppa]

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

we have been having light occasional flakes for the past hour but not what we can call a shower

[frankie01]

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

id atake their forecasts over pretty much any to be honest.Lets face it they are ones whose whole business model depends on the weather, youd expect them to be clued up..or at least youd hope so.

[macc2013]

Will Macclesfield still get any Snow?

[pip22]

The front never gets past cheshire gap

This must be a mistake hopefully it surely change for better soon.

[trickydicky]

Current forecast - Front wont reach North West, following convective snow showers on easterly flow wont reach the North West!

[Bartlett Low]

It's not a mistake going off he latest models. But could well change again.

[Liam J]

BBC forecast much different to yesterday and the front didn't even make it into the amber warning area lol But until the warning is reviewed later this morning the BBC have no choice but to continue. I expect warnings for Ireland later and Wales with much of the region removed bar the areas south of say Cheshire as a guess.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J

[R.P. McMurphy]

No Mistake - it's developed a LPS inside it, keeping it away, will be lucky to reach land at this rate - FINGERS crossed it does not happen and it's just missing data or an error, but if it stands, this will be the biggest let down since I have been here... Oh the good ol' North West of England.

[Oakwell]

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

Let's hope so

[snowdrifter]

Carol on BBC just had showed the snow graphic further south but then the amber warning area still in more or less the same place. Very ambiguous, but I guess just repeating what the meto still have on their site. 90% sure the amber area will shift around 100 this morning. How nailed on this something need to be here for goodness sake??

[Snow free zone]

Current forecast - Front wont reach North West, following convective snow showers on easterly flow wont reach the North West!

So no change there then !!

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

Bbc weather just had us under the amber warning telling us to expect 5-10cm widespread.