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North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

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Brass_Monkeys Newbie

Brass_Monkeys

Posted
  • Location: Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan (60m/182ft asl)
  • Location: Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan (60m/182ft asl)
Posted (edited)

would you rather have rain? thought not blum.gif

This mornings picture is a far less snowy one in terms of widespread and disruptive snowfall. Of course there's still snow in the forecast and always the chance things turn out better than forecast good.gif

The 0400hrs updated Met forecast for our region is by no means grim reading:

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Edited by Brass_Monkeys
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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Still, think we should be okay

Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

I doubt by 4am the Met will have analysed the 00z data for that forecast, the new guidance is now making it into the BBC broadcasts which use Met Office data. Hence Peter mentioning the front not making it past the Cheshire gap.

HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted (edited)

This mornings picture is a far less snowy one in terms of widespread and disruptive snowfall. Of course there's still snow in the forecast and always the chance things turn out better than forecast good.gif

The 0400hrs updated Met forecast for our region is by no means grim reading:

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

(I'm sure they update this after the 00z runs)

I wonder though, where could this precipitation likely come from?according to the BBC North West forecast 2 mins ago, they seem to think further precipitation is expected which will push in later tonight and tomorrow? or are we looking at it now over wales and to move ne and to still affect the south?

Edited by HotCuppa
Snowstorm nw Newbie

Snowstorm nw

Posted
Posted

This mornings picture is a far less snowy one in terms of widespread and disruptive snowfall. Of course there's still snow in the forecast and always the chance things turn out better than forecast good.gif

The 0400hrs updated Met forecast for our region is by no means grim reading:

Headline:

Mostly dry and very cold. Snow arriving later tonight.

Today:

Dry and very cold for most despite some brightness after any freezing fog patches clear. Some patchy snow may reach Cheshire towards evening as winds increase. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Tonight:

Most places dry at first, but becoming windy with a little snow in places, perhaps more persistent and heavier in the south later. Minimum Temperature -4 °C.

Friday:

Windy with snow spreading to all areas with some significant accumulations with a risk of disruption. Risk of blizzards over high ground and feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Maximum Temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Windy with further snow on Saturday. Sunday, less windy, mostly dry but cloudy after freezing fog lifts. More snow and strong winds on Monday. Cold and icy.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

(I'm sure they update this after the 00z runs)

trickydicky Aficionado

trickydicky

Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
Posted

It really doesn't matter what the circumstances are,if snow is in the forecast something will go wrong it would seem!

Brass_Monkeys Newbie

Brass_Monkeys

Posted
  • Location: Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan (60m/182ft asl)
  • Location: Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan (60m/182ft asl)
Posted (edited)

I doubt by 4am the Met will have analysed the 00z data for that forecast, the new guidance is now making it into the BBC broadcasts which use Met Office data. Hence Peter mentioning the front not making it past the Cheshire gap.

Yes, you're probably right Liam. Wishful thinking on my part (post edited above).

*Just to add - the local forecast has definitely changed from last night as the heavy snow symbols for my area have been replaced with light snow. So there certainly has been some sort of an update to the forecast. Perhaps the text forecast is yet to be amended?

Edited by Brass_Monkeys
frankie01 Newbie

frankie01

Posted
  • Location: Aigburth Liverpool, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Long hot summers, cold winters.
  • Location: Aigburth Liverpool, Merseyside
Posted

Liverpool airport "flying forecast" still expects heavy snow this evening

Snowstorm nw Newbie

Snowstorm nw

Posted
Posted

Another downer then, I've always said it and I will say it again we should let nature take its cause.

The problem with everyone on this thread is we all love snow, it never really comes off. Not much to look forward to Another NON EVENT!

HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Liverpool airport "flying forecast" still expects heavy snow this evening

convection is going to be a keyword today out there.

TAF updated at 5 am this morning for Liverpool airport

Edited by HotCuppa
Bartlett Low Newbie

Bartlett Low

Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
Posted

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

frankie01 Newbie

frankie01

Posted
  • Location: Aigburth Liverpool, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Long hot summers, cold winters.
  • Location: Aigburth Liverpool, Merseyside
Posted

convection is going to be a keyword today out there.

TAF updated at 5 am this morning for Liverpool airport

im not very up on weather mate, a fair newby to be honest. I still think we are in with a shout despite the clear shift south.Wont get much though i dont expect.Anything upwards of a dusting is a right bonus.And theres always next week...haha

HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

we have been having light occasional flakes for the past hour but not what we can call a shower

frankie01 Newbie

frankie01

Posted
  • Location: Aigburth Liverpool, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Long hot summers, cold winters.
  • Location: Aigburth Liverpool, Merseyside
Posted

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

id atake their forecasts over pretty much any to be honest.Lets face it they are ones whose whole business model depends on the weather, youd expect them to be clued up..or at least youd hope so.

pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

The front never gets past cheshire gap

This must be a mistake hopefully it surely change for better soon.
trickydicky Aficionado

trickydicky

Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
Posted

Current forecast - Front wont reach North West, following convective snow showers on easterly flow wont reach the North West!

Bartlett Low Newbie

Bartlett Low

Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
Posted

It's not a mistake going off he latest models. But could well change again.

Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

BBC forecast much different to yesterday and the front didn't even make it into the amber warning area lol But until the warning is reviewed later this morning the BBC have no choice but to continue. I expect warnings for Ireland later and Wales with much of the region removed bar the areas south of say Cheshire as a guess.

Edited by Liam J
R.P. McMurphy Community Regular

R.P. McMurphy

Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
Posted

No Mistake - it's developed a LPS inside it, keeping it away, will be lucky to reach land at this rate - FINGERS crossed it does not happen and it's just missing data or an error, but if it stands, this will be the biggest let down since I have been here... Oh the good ol' North West of England.

Oakwell Contributor

Oakwell

Posted
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL
Posted

Although as mention by Frankie and he former mr data the airport forecasts for Liverpool and manchester are still going for snow.

They are nearly always correct.

Let's hope so :)

snowdrifter Explorer

snowdrifter

Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Posted

Carol on BBC just had showed the snow graphic further south but then the amber warning area still in more or less the same place. Very ambiguous, but I guess just repeating what the meto still have on their site. 90% sure the amber area will shift around 100 this morning. How nailed on this something need to be here for goodness sake??

Snow free zone Community Regular

Snow free zone

Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
Posted

Current forecast - Front wont reach North West, following convective snow showers on easterly flow wont reach the North West!

So no change there then !!

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