Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[Frosty.]

As this is the model output discussion thread I just stated what the models are showing. I realise this could well change and in actual fact I am convinced it will. This is why I said in my post "As it stands".

Difference between the GFS & the rest at +144 is laughable.

I agree TEITS, I think the euros have a better handle on the mid range and keep us in the freezer out to T+240+

As for tomorrow, a high impact event about to hit with n.ireland in for blizzards even, and the southwest and wales. maybe 25cm+ with severe drifting in gale force SSEly winds, the snow then slowly spreading further north and east, then the areas which miss the frontal snow in parts of the north and east can expect snow showers to become widespread by fri night and throughout the weekend, then more frontal snow spreading northeast on mon/tues with more snow showers to n and e coastal areas, bitterly cold continental air backing from SSEly through to Ely, then SEly again by early next week.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

CMA Keeps us in the colder mix short term and then starts again to show us this (I wish!)......... ...Keeping with the upbeat mood and potential continuation of cold theme

CMA T120

CMA T144

CMA T168

That looks about right

BFTP

[Frosty.]

That looks about right

BFTP

lol yes if those charts verify, there won't be enough snowploughs to dig us out of the deep drifts

All parts of the uk would be in the heavy snow zone with easterly gales.

[MR EXTREMES]

Any bets against the standard 06Z block-sinker? http://nwstatic.co.u...ab2efda64ca7f2;

id for once bet against it purely because of the number of lowheights moving southeast proping it up.

to be honest it would not suprise me if soon it will be in such a position that we get a ne flow.

That looks about right

BFTP

bit far fetched these charts id think gem ecm and ukmo would be the best charts and they dont look to bad either.

[shedhead]

Looks to me as if any sig ppt is really going to struggle to move NE based on the latest 06 fax out of Exeter...which note is a correction.

Edited January 17, 2013 by shedhead

[Froze were the Days]

Have to say a little disappointed (in terms of recent output) with the 0z's from the Euro's although some time away the next LP towards Monday looks like positioning itself to the west/South west of the UK rather then sliding ESE as progged by some models a day ago. It looks like a snow to rain event in the south but more interesting for central areas and to the north before the LP slowly moves SSE.

Can't help feeling that some SE/Eastern parts will not see much in the way of snow in the next week other than a snow to rain affair. ECM trending towards milder conditions in about a weeks+ time but as we know that's along way off considering how the models have been handling just 72/96 hour periods. Any chance of convection off the North Sea when the wind veers more easterly as the depressions fragment/dicipate?

[Summer Sun]

Could be some heavy snow for a time next week the east is likely to get hit on Saturday

Further snow showers likely Sunday before an area of heavy snow develops in the south east and slowly moves up the eastern side

[Paul T]

Met office have extended warnings in many areas, with a RED warning in southern Wales. Very rare.

It would appear that this front has some clout in terms of PPN levels, and appears to be upgrading.

[Frosty.]

Looks to me as though NW Scotland will be the driest part of the uk in the next 3-5 days but most other areas being blanketed in snow from either showers or frontal zone.

[UV-RAY]

Looks to me as though NW Scotland will be the driest part of the uk in the next 3-5 days but most other areas being blanketed in snow from either showers or frontal zone.

Add large parts of NW England to that list Frosty, already tomorrows non event has been downgraded to zilch.

[Frosty.]

Add large parts of NW England to that list Frosty, already tomorrows non event has been downgraded to zilch.

It's still evolving SI, don't give up hope yet.

[UV-RAY]

It's still evolving SI, don't give up hope yet.

From past experiences I know exactly what it's evolving too Frosty, unfortunately the swear filter doesn't allow me to continue.

[Frosty.]

From past experiences I know exactly what it's evolving too Frosty, unfortunately the swear filter doesn't allow me to continue.

LOL well I just heard the snow area is going to spread out further north and east going deeper into tomorrow, even london has an amber warning now, the main core of the blizzards will be across the sw, wales and n.ireland tonight and tomorrow morning, but then the snow will spread out more to a wider area, for some areas, tomorrow will bring the worst blizzards for over 20 years, nearly a foot of snow and deep drifts by tomorrow night.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Add large parts of NW England to that list Frosty, already tomorrows non event has been downgraded to zilch.

That is total rubbish ... NW England looks like doing brilliant out of this ..

[shedhead]

Looking at the 06 fax from Exeter that I posted earlier any sig frontal snow is gonna stuggle to get northeast of a line from Brighton-Brum-Belfast imo. Without question somewhere is going to get absolutely pasted tomorrow and S Wales, especially the Brecon Beacons looks the most likely spot. I think come the back end of tomorrow many may have actually regretted what they wished for, but those in central and eastern areas could end up very much more disappointed that looked the case only 24hrs ago. I base this purely on the fax charts however, but I do feel once we got into this kind of range they are the best and most reliable tool available.

[Tim Bland]

GFS had the breakdown yesterday for next Tues, now it is Weds / thurs. If the GFS was to be believed a week ago it would be all over by now... Notice a theme... At this rate we will still be under snow in August

Re above post about the fronts progression tommorw. Remember this fax is only for 6am. NAE and UKMV has it progreesing east throughout the day. Although it will weaken as it goes. The metoffice wouldnt have just extended the amber zone further East if they were not confirdent. I think all areas will have a decent covering by end of play tommorow. If it fizzles out by the time it reaches the far NE then that area is forecast for up to 10cm of snow from showers if you read the text warning for Sat / Sun.... Its Win Win!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Troubleatmill]

That is total rubbish ... NW England looks like doing brilliant out of this ..

Its more of a local thing TBH Chris, it has downgraded for Lancs, but more for regional thread than on here, sure we are all doing it on our own regional threads right now lol

Looking at the 06z postage stamps out at 240+ the ensmble lines are a little misleading as there is still quite a lot of blocking going on:

[Frosty.]

GFS had the breakdown yesterday for next Tues, now it is Weds / thurs. If the GFS was to be believed a week ago it would be all over by

And the GFS 00z op run showed the freeze lasting the whole of next week, so it's hopefully trending more and more towards the ukmo/ecm solution, having said that, i'm hoping the ecm 00z is wrong in the later output as it brings an anticyclone down across the uk from icelend and eventually sinking the cold block, hoping the freeze will go on and on and intensify from the northeast.

[UV-RAY]

That is total rubbish ... NW England looks like doing brilliant out of this ..

On those charts that never verify we would, but going off the MetO the front barely makes it out of N Wales tomorrow before sinking South and East. Off course if you think the MetO have this wrong then fair enough.

[shedhead]

GFS had the breakdown yesterday for next Tues, now it is Weds / thurs. If the GFS was to be believed a week ago it would be all over by now... Notice a theme... At this rate we will still be under snow in August

Re above post about the fronts progression tommorow. Remember this fax is only for 6am. NAE and UKMV has it progreesing east throughout the day. Although it will weaken as it goes. The metoffice wouldnt have just extended the amber zone further East if they were not confirdent. I think all areas will have a decent covering by end of play tommorow. If it fizzles out by the time it reaches the far NE then that area is forecast for up to 10cm of snow from showers if you read the text warning for Sat / Sun.... Its Win Win!

What is driving the front NE though Tim?

Compare the latest 06 to the 00 chart for noon tomorrow. The diving LP is already much father SE in the St Georges Channel

and would likely be in the English Channel by 9am, probably stalling the front over the W Country. Clearly snow will break out

quite well ahead of the main frontal band, but the area of heaviest, most disruptive snow looks like being relatively narrow to me.

[bluearmy]

THE 06Z fax has moved the low on the front further south so i i magine the latest ultra high res models have adjusted the way the earlier faxes showed the little low holding the front back. i expect the 12z faxes will look a bit different to the 00z. meanwhile, are the latest runs right ???

[Snowman31]

THE 06Z fax has moved the low on the front further south so i i magine the latest ultra high res models have adjusted the way the earlier faxes showed the little low holding the front back. i expect the 12z faxes will look a bit different to the 00z. meanwhile, are the latest runs right ???

How does this affect the areas affected by snow then? too many changes, its driving me mad

[bradymk]

Tomorrow aside, ECM and GEFS ensembles quite similar with very cold for the next week with a cluster for less cold weather into and after next weekend. This fits in with the MetO outlook of less cold end of the month.

[Frosty.]

Well it's another very wintry update from the metoffice, almost a carbon copy of yesterday actually and it reads very similar to the Ecm 00z op run from this weekend and throughout next week with tomorrows snow followed by more snow on saturday and then more snow early next week and indeed throughout next week with the n and e most affected, lots of frost and ice and only the far southwest of the uk having temps rising closer to average at times but for many, we are staying in the freezer with lots more snow opportunities during the next 7-10 days+

[Froze were the Days]

Well it's another very wintry update from the metoffice, almost a carbon copy of yesterday actually and it reads very similar to the Ecm 00z op run from this weekend and throughout next week with tomorrows snow followed by more snow on saturday and then more snow early next week and indeed throughout next week with the n and e most affected, lots of frost and ice and only the far southwest of the uk having temps rising closer to average at times but for many, we are staying in the freezer with lots more snow opportunities during the next 7-10 days+

hhmmm I'll think we'll see a less cold period next week as the next depression tends to swings up from the west rather than undercut although northern parts will probably remain cold after that back to nationwide cold again, but saying that I'm going largely on what I've seen on the ECM/UKMO 12z's.