Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[luvsnow]

This may seem like a silly question but there seem to be disagreements about who is going to see tomorrow's snow and how much. The met office still have my area under an amber warning. Is my area definately going to see snow or should we prepare for the disappointment?

[Paul33]

This may seem like a silly question but there seem to be disagreements about who is going to see tomorrow's snow and how much. The met office still have my area under an amber warning. Is my area definately going to see snow or should we prepare for the disappointment?

I think the concensus is that model based forecasting of snow within the next 24 hours is largely pointless and that we are now in the radar and lampost watching zone ...... whatever will be will be and every chance it will not exactly match model forecasts !!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Paul33

[shedhead]

This may seem like a silly question but there seem to be disagreements about who is going to see tomorrow's snow and how much. The met office still have my area under an amber warning. Is my area definately going to see snow or should we prepare for the disappointment?

In this kind of situ you really are posing the $64000 question. I think you have to go with what is being called for now, but personally I feel getting sig frontal snow as far north as you tomorrow is a tough ask. That said I'm sure you will end up with something, as should most of us in one form or another.

[Frosty.]

hhmmm I'll think we'll see a less cold period next week as the next depression tends to swings up from the west rather than undercut although northern parts will probably remain cold after that back to nationwide cold again, but saying that I'm going largely on what I've seen on the ECM/UKMO 12z's.

well I think the models have never looked better from a cold and snow perspective and there is tons of potential going forward throughout next week and perhaps beyond, this cold block is not leaving us for the foreseeable future, yes, it may crumble a bit towards the southwest as the atlantic keeps bashing into the brickwall of cold but for many it's staying v cold with an ongoing risk of snow.

[Paul]

Latest forecast from Michael Fish, includes the snow risk during the next 48 hours and a look ahead to next week - staying cold...

[Tim Bland]

well I think the models have never looked better from a cold and snow perspective and there is tons of potential going forward throughout next week and perhaps beyond, this cold block is not leaving us for the foreseeable future, yes, it may crumble a bit towards the southwest as the atlantic keeps bashing into the brickwall of cold but for many it's staying v cold with an ongoing risk of snow.

I can see a north south devide starting next week. If you take GFS nto account then it looks like the start of the end for the south after midweek. Hopefully the snowline will be pushed further south and west as time goes on from the models and more importantly we want the GFS to start following the Euros.

[Bartlett Low]

Looks like Mr. Fish did the forecast yesterday.

[Froze were the Days]

That run that Michael Fish has just presented looks like what the GFS predicts the back end of next week...eventually to a milder Atlantic I should think. Interesting times between then and now though.

[Paul33]

If you take GFS nto account then it looks like the start of the end for the south after midweek.

If you took GFS seriously last week then we'd already be seeing milder conditions NOW !!!

[Tim Bland]

whilst it quiet in here... We were all slating the NAE over the last couple of days for showing snow today spreading from wales across to the Midlands.... look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk I think it was all the other models that failed to spot it! reports of a covering in East wales all the way accross to Newark / Grantham in East Mids!

[Frosty.]

If you took GFS seriously last week then we'd already be seeing milder conditions NOW !!!

well the meto appear to have dismissed the gfs 6z as an option as next week and beyond still looks very cold with further snow risk and sharp frosts, the gfs has been very poor in handling this cold spell both in the build up to it and now.

[surrey slush]

whilst it quiet in here... We were all slating the NAE over the last couple of days for showing snow today spreading from wales across to the Midlands.... look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk I think it was all the other models that failed to spot it! reports of a covering in East wales all the way accross to Newark / Grantham in East Mids!

You could even look @ the radar on NW... but TBH, i think the NAE slagging off was because everyone thought it was pulling the 'friday' event into today weakening it and stalling it, whereas it was picking up a signal for what we now see. Well that and IF posted that the 'chief' at the MetO had binned/modified it.

[Moomin71]

whilst it quiet in here... We were all slating the NAE over the last couple of days for showing snow today spreading from wales across to the Midlands.... look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk I think it was all the other models that failed to spot it! reports of a covering in East wales all the way accross to Newark / Grantham in East Mids!

I can confirm t has been snowing all day on Welsh borders, slight covering of snow, there was a heavy dusting first thing this morning which has melted back but not gone.

Just to pick up on Paul 33's point, I commented a few days ago that the models seemed to be starting to do what they did in Dec 2010 when they were constantly predicting milder breakdown but that kepy getting pushed back. To my mind the same thing is happening again, its just that the blocking isn't as strong and we're not getting the same deep cold at the moment. I would not be suprised to see that milder breakdown during next week get pushed back further agian.

M

[nick sussex]

I think the background signals still favour a lengthy cold spell. It's become evident that the models have been too quick to end the cold, this especially aimed at the GFS.

Looking at the ECM zonal wind at 60N thats still in reversal even at day 10 so thats a nice factor to have going on in the background.

The ECM postage stamps at day 7 have some really nice options and I hope the operational run picks up one of those this evening.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

Although theres a variety of options theres still a decent cluster of very good solutions.

Edited January 17, 2013 by nick sussex

[SnowObsessor90]

hhmmm I'll think we'll see a less cold period next week as the next depression tends to swings up from the west rather than undercut although northern parts will probably remain cold after that back to nationwide cold again, but saying that I'm going largely on what I've seen on the ECM/UKMO 12z's.

Well the likes of Chio and GP have touched on the idea of a moderation of the cold at times followed by a reloads not too long after so if do see a breakdown of sorts then fingers crossed they have this correct.

[sparky1972]

whilst it quiet in here... We were all slating the NAE over the last couple of days for showing snow today spreading from wales across to the Midlands.... look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk I think it was all the other models that failed to spot it! reports of a covering in East wales all the way accross to Newark / Grantham in East Mids!

nothing here in spalding but it looks like we might get something later, would be unexpect if it happened, all in all some great model watching comming up and lampost watching

[Harsh Climate]

How can we fully trust precipitation charts when the GFS can't even get it right at 06h lol.

The precipitation is already further east than expected and actually intensifying over the east midlands! Hope this continues tommorow and everything is further east ; )

Edited January 17, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Paul]

Looks like Mr. Fish did the forecast yesterday.

No, it was produced this morning.

[Nick F]

I think the background signals still favour a lengthy cold spell. It's become evident that the models have been too quick to end the cold, this especially aimed at the GFS.

Yes, agree with you there, trough disruption just the west and southwest of the UK seems mostly likely to continue through all of next week with the cold block holding firm.

Interestingly the 00z ECM operational looked like a mild outlier for London between the 21st and 24th, when that low is progged to move in near the west, bringing less cold air in across southern Britain on Tuesday.

http://www.weatherca...e-forecast.html

Which suggests the ops of both 00z ECM and UKMO maybe a little to far north with the lows and less cold air early next week. Ice days perhaps more likely.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Nick F

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

whilst it quiet in here... We were all slating the NAE over the last couple of days for showing snow today spreading from wales across to the Midlands.... look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk I think it was all the other models that failed to spot it! reports of a covering in East wales all the way accross to Newark / Grantham in East Mids!

Nice surprise - snowing in Nottingham now, although pretty lightly

[bluearmy]

Yes, agree with you there, trough disruption just the west and southwest of the UK seems mostly likely to continue through all of next week with the cold block holding firm.

Interestingly the 00z ECM operational looked like a mild outlier for London between the 21st and 24th, when that low is progged to move in near the west, bringing less cold air in across southern Britain on Tuesday.

http://www.weatherca...e-forecast.html

Which suggests the ops of both 00z ECM and UKMO maybe a little to far north with the lows and less cold air early next week.

GEM is the same. all three ops wrong ??

[Summer Sun]

Nice surprise - snowing in Nottingham now, although pretty lightly

I've just bought the radar and its showing snow over Nottingham thought it was playing tricks on me!

NAE for tomorrow

Edited January 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[patrickshere]

Accumulation of snow from the latest NAE. Slightly more favourable away from the SW than the 6Z was in terms of precipitation amounts.

Bit of something for everyone minus the far SW + coastal areas far NW and parts of Scotland/Ireland. 5cm+ widely, with some lucky areas (likely be a matter of radar watching for heaviest precip in most cases) getting 10cm+, and 20-40cm looks possible in south wales + the mountains in north wales.

Edited January 17, 2013 by mituozo

[Nick F]

GEM is the same. all three ops wrong ??

Could well be too far north, at least half the 51 ECM EPS members going for a low much further south or SW on Tuesday, with a cold easterly flow, quite a few maybe only just a little further south but still with a v. cold flow from the SE.

Be interesting to see if 12z GFS continues to follow the 06z with a more southward correction.

[phil nw.]

The 12`s are out shortly so let`s keep the talk based around what the models show please folks.

Any general chat about the cold and snow should go into the other model thread or your regionals.

OK thanks.