Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[patrickshere]

Yet again some excellent output again. The ECM might not be as impressive as last nights especially towards the end of the run but at this stage im not worrying about +240.

Looking at the UKMO/ECM mean and another big snow event is going to occur during Monday and Tues. How far N the snow will push is uncertain as in the snow/rain line but as it stands N Wales, Midlands, N parts of E Anglia would see an all snow event before pushing S. Those to the S of these areas would see snow turning to rain.

As for tomorrow and an upgrade on the latest NAE run for those in the E.

http://expert-images...011818_1706.gif

Looks like Wales and parts of the SW (Bristol etc) are going to get nailed tomorrow. Very pleased for the members who live in these locations.

I'd wait until this event is done before predicting where will get snow and rain in the event on monday! Things can still change today, and if there's lying snow bringing temps down it can make a fair difference to how long the precipitation stays as snow / if it turns to rain at all.

[Methuselah]

My very first post but been watchng for a couple of years. Wales is defo in the firing line for fridays event as the models slowly backing the trough further west. Been watching this low in the atlantic for a few days thinking its to far east against the block. Ukmo has been very crediable during this cold. Gfs is a classic default long term as its a happy go mild

Welcome to net-weather, BW...Please can you pop your location into your profile?

I'd wait until this event is done before predicting where will get snow and rain in the event on monday! Things can still change today, and if there's lying snow bringing temps down it can make a fair difference to how long the precipitation stays as snow / if it turns to rain at all.

But, if we all waited till after the event, what would we discuss?

[Thunder Snow]

The caveat being I guess; depending on your location??????

Totally agree, but honestly i should have know this would happen living in carlisle

[Frosty.]

The caveat being I guess; depending on your location??????

Exactly, looking at the bigger picture, no cold fan should be even remotely disappointed by the current models, if you don't get much snow at least it will be very cold with frosts galore, Let's just think back to how miserable the output was during christmas and new year, this is a mega improvement with lots of snow opportunities in the next 7-10 days.

[TEITS]

I'd wait until this event is done before predicting where will get snow and rain in the event on monday! Things can still change today, and if there's lying snow bringing temps down it can make a fair difference to how long the precipitation stays as snow / if it turns to rain at all.

As this is the model output discussion thread I just stated what the models are showing. I realise this could well change and in actual fact I am convinced it will. This is why I said in my post "As it stands".

Difference between the GFS & the rest at +144 is laughable.

[Great Plum]

Totally agree, but honestly i should have know this would happen living in carlisle

Must. Resist. Asking. Question...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

Next Wednesday still has -5 air over the bulk of the BI!

[Methuselah]

Any bets against the standard 06Z block-sinker? http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20130117;time=06;ext=153;file=h850t850eu;sess=60c1581f43b789ad6cab2efda64ca7f2;

Edited January 17, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[swfc]

Any bets against the standard 06Z block-sinker? http://nwstatic.co.u...ab2efda64ca7f2;

id say at 162 hours pressure looks to be building to the north imo

[Mr Sleet]

Must. Resist. Asking. Question...

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png

Next Wednesday still has -5 air over the bulk of the BI!

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

You can see this low pressure forming on the occlusion over Ireland and putting it back onto a more NW/SE orientation, which is what is was progged to do a couple of days ago until the met office switched to more of a N/S (meridional) orientation yesterday.

Will it snow in the NW?I should think so, especially Carlisle.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Mr Sleet

[SomeLikeItHot]

Again it looks as if the 06Z GFS pushes the block breaking later. Its been consistent showing the block breaking down 5-7 days later than the run

[phil nw.]

One thing of note whether we look east or west for our weather it looks cold.

Here at T96hrs.

A notable amount of cold polar air is spilling south into mid-latitudes all across the Atlantic and into Europe.

[Thunder Snow]

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

You can see this low pressure forming on the occlusion over Ireland and putting it back onto a more NW/SE orientation, which is what is was progged to do a couple of days ago until the met office switched to more of a N/S (meridional) orientation yesterday.

Will it snow in the NW?I should think so, especially Carlisle.

LOOL do you really think so, i think it is a downgrade. The charts were showing 12-24 hours of snow yesterday, i still think i will see snow but not as good as they were showing. maybe 1-2cm lol

[Troubleatmill]

The 06z is showing the atlantic taking a different approach to getting rid of this block it cant beat, rather than firing low after low at us after next tuesday it gives up completely and says 'ok block you stay there without my help' needles to say, the block has nothing to prop it up and shows signs of sinking, as soon as it does, the atlantic says haha! suprise!! here i come and im gonna ride you like cowboy!

Devious devil that atlantic, wouldnt trust it as far as i could throw it!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Nick JB

[johnholmes]

the latest 500mb anomaly charts give a flavour of what to expect the upper pattern to be out to 15 days if not longer

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

That is unclear. You can see ECMWF is fairly different from GFS.

The only thing one would say is that it is unlikely to get much if any milder!

ECMWF favours cold and unsettled with GFS going for cold and more anticyclonic.

take your pick. I would imagine these two and the NOAA will have UK Met favouring cold not mild but uncertainty about the type of weather, unless their own versions and analysis of other products leads to a more definite feel for one thing or the other.

[Methuselah]

Again it looks as if the 06Z GFS pushes the block breaking later. Its been consistent showing the block breaking down 5-7 days later than the run

It does indeed. But, when you consider that each-and-every breakdown is so completely different to the one that preceded it, GFS-FI is certainly living-up to its name...It's almost as baffled as I am!

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's Thursday, so that means that the GFS is showing the breakdown just starting very late next Wednesday...

The only consistency it seems to have had lately is an inability to latch onto any trends past six days and to overdo the Atlantic somewhat.

Edited January 17, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Wayneywoo]

Just thought I'd throw this in to the ring, CMA T+216

Winds sourced from Siberia and beyond!

[Yarmy]

Some run against run 5 day stats:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html4x/acz5.html

In summary, ECM 12z > ECM 00z > GFS 12z > GFS 00z > GFS 06z > GFS 18z which probably confirms some suspicions although the differences are not that great.

It's a shame they don't run out to 7 or 8 days as that seems to be where GFS falls off a cliff at the moment.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS 06Z operational run bears out what John suggested for the middle part of next week, pretty cold, dry and quiet with the blocking high becoming established close to the country, but ECMWF/UKMO are united in keeping a cold unsettled and probably snowy type of outlook- indeed I think the ECMWF ensemble mean is more convincing for this than the operational run. It seems that the GFS is rather out on its own here but on rare occasions it can be proved right in these situations, so cannot be discarded.

[Snow phall]

Can someone just clear something up for me,is the GFS a public funded model and is it performing badly at the minute because of poor programming?

Why is the ECM doing better,is it luck or experience?

I have chronic memory problems,so forgive me if it has been explained elsewhere.

[bluearmy]

Can someone just clear something up for me,is the GFS a public funded model and is it performing badly at the minute because of poor programming?

Why is the ECM doing better,is it luck or experience?

I have chronic memory problems,so forgive me if it has been explained elsewhere.

GFS is under NOAA, a us government organisation.

ecm model runs at a higher resolution and that is probably why it performs better overall.

[snowmadchrisuk]

is it just me , because I am starting to get the feeling that this cold spell is going to keep getting put back and back until we see a massive wall of pressure build towards Greenland and then Cold spell part 2 will include a prolonged Northerly . Easterly with the Atlantic totally blocked ... If this happens we could be looking towards the end of Feb before we see any return to Mild SW'lys.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06Z operational run bears out what John suggested for the middle part of next week, pretty cold, dry and quiet with the blocking high becoming established close to the country, but ECMWF/UKMO are united in keeping a cold unsettled and probably snowy type of outlook- indeed I think the ECMWF ensemble mean is more convincing for this than the operational run. It seems that the GFS is rather out on its own here but on rare occasions it can be proved right in these situations, so cannot be discarded.

I agree, the Gfs still looks pretty clueless beyond the middle of next week, it's as if it's desperately trying every possible combination to return to a less cold pattern although actually, there is little or no mild on the entire gfs 06z, temps in general remain below average beyond the freeze. I think the freeze will last much longer than the gfs is showing.

[Wayneywoo]

Does anyone think the SST's are bearing any effect on what we are currently getting? I remember in winters' past where we would be harpering on about the SST's and LP's constantly heading through the GIN corridor. The reason I ask is because isn't February supposed to be the most likely time when the Jet slows due to the temperature difference being at it's lowest and so HP has to surely form to our North what with the help of the SSW?

The SSW has, rightfully, taken centre stage this winter, I just wonder what other variables have played a part and aren't being questioned...

edit: Just thought I'd throw this in the thread while there is a lul between the 06z, ensembles released and the 12z...

Edited January 17, 2013 by Wayneywoo

[bluearmy]

the ecn ens again go mild for the last few days of jan (80/20 split). in line with exeter's 15 dayer issued yesterday so i suspect MOGREPS-15 in agreement. i wonder if this will be a less cold blip before more cold spreads back or whether the signal will become muted as the days tick by ?