February 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum for today is 0.3C, while maxima we near 6C, so a drop to 4.2 or 4.3C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET around

4.0C to the 8th (2.1)

3.7C to the 9th (1.7)

3.7C to the 10th (3.0)

3.4C to the 11th (1.0)

3.1C to the 12th (0.0)

2.7C to the 13th (-1.9)

2.7C to the 14th (1.6)

[Fozfoster]

+1.5 will be doing well

It was tongue in cheek ;-)

[Derecho]

I wonder if we can beat February 2010's figure of 2.8C to make it the coldest February since 1996?. A very fair chance of this happening IMO, maybe 1991 even. The signal for a Greenland high building later in the month is very strong. We are also long overdue a cold March (2006 and 2001 were cold but not especially so) again 1996 was the last one, might 2013 be the year?

The dominance of very mild February's/ March's will IMO cause a lot of people to underestimate how cold late Feb/early March can be if this does turn out to be the case.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Stu_London]

4.2C to the 7th

Yesterday was 2.6C

Last night 0.9C, so another drop tomorrow - probably to 4.1C

Reckon we will be pushed to go sub 3. The longer days in the second half of the month mean that if the sun is out a spike of 2-3C can occur for maximum temp even if they just last 1 hour (usually 3pm at this time of the year). Mid Feb signals the period where we once again get more warmth from the sun (as opposed to the atlantic (which is our electric blanket from Mid Nov)

[IanR]

. We are also long overdue a cold March (2006 and 2001 were cold but not especially so) again 1996 was the last one, might 2013 be the year?

The dominance of very mild February's/ March's will IMO cause a lot of people to underestimate how cold late Feb/early March can be if this does turn out to be the case.

But you could say we are overdue an above average month, will not happen for Febuary, but when will we see the next comfortably above average month? How long can the sustained belows carry on in these so called warming times. I think we should have a competiton to see when the next above average month will be, I say May !

My 4.1 for Feb is looking a bit high now

[Bobd29]

4.2C to the 7th

Yesterday was 2.6C

Last night 0.9C, so another drop tomorrow - probably to 4.1C

Reckon we will be pushed to go sub 3. The longer days in the second half of the month mean that if the sun is out a spike of 2-3C can occur for maximum temp even if they just last 1 hour (usually 3pm at this time of the year). Mid Feb signals the period where we once again get more warmth from the sun (as opposed to the atlantic (which is our electric blanket from Mid Nov)

True but averages can still be destryed throughout Feb?march if we get severe nighttime frosts in clear periods over snowfields....aaah, if only!

[Summer Sun]

4.1 to the 8th

[Stu_London]

4.0 to the 9th

[hillbilly]

some milder weather coming i think below 4 will be doing well unfortunately

[IanR]

I still think sub 4 is on the cards, this is my first guess at this game, so I would be delighted if it was just above 4

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 2.1C, with maxima around 5C, so remaining on 4.0C tomorrow.

The 12z GFS then has the CET at

3.7C to the 11th (0.9)

3.4C to the 12th (0.3)

3.0C to the 13th (-2.2)

3.0C to the 14th (3.3)

3.1C to the 15th (4.0)

3.2C to the 16th (4.9)

3.4C to the 17th (6.3)

[Summer Sun]

3.9c to the 10th

[Stu_London]

What's suprising is how minimas are holding up considering we have been in a relative cool spell since the beginning of the month.

Lowest being the 3rd at -1.4C, with all others above freezing.

[TonyH]

Where is the usual table of our entries this month please?

[TonyH]

-- 1 . 0

near-record cold at times

Nice try Roger but it ain't going to happen it would seem!

Posted a table of entries in the "contest scoring" thread just now ... 87 entries ... median 3.7 C.

Good luck (and dress warmly).

Where is the 'contest scoring' thread?

[geoffw]

rogers cet punt is a complete joke - we may get a cold spell but nothing serious!

[Summer Sun]

What's suprising is how minimas are holding up considering we have been in a relative cool spell since the beginning of the month.

Lowest being the 3rd at -1.4C, with all others above freezing.

It seems that we are getting a lot more cloud than expected during the night which is helping the temperature to hold up

The lowest temperature here in darlo this month has been -0.3c on the 2nd

Edited February 11, 2013 by Gavin.

[TonyH]

Indeed the minima give the impression of quite a mild month, even though it has been rather cold so far.

[Summer Sun]

Indeed the minima give the impression of quite a mild month, even though it has been rather cold so far.

We've had some fairly mild days on face value here but its the wind which has made it feel colder than it actually have been the average day time temperature here up-to the 10th is 6.9c

[Summer Sun]

3.7 to the 11th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 0.6C and maxima just under 2C, should see a drop to about 3.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET near

3.2C to the 13th (-1.0)

3.3C to the 14th (5.1)

3.4C to the 15th (5.0)

3.6C to the 16th (6.9)

4.0C to the 17th (9.8]

4.3C to the 18th (8.8]

4.5C to the 19th (8.5)

[damianslaw]

Nearing the half way juncture and its very hard to say likely finishing CET figure. The next few days will bring much milder maxima but this could be cancelled out by some chilly minima, but I suspect by the 20th we will in the mid 4's, thereafter strong chance of a marked downturn, but I think anything below 3 degrees is now unlikely unless we see a significant cold last week.

So at this stage a finish somewhere between 3 and 5 degrees - very uncertain.

[IanR]

4.1c it is then beginners luck

[Summer Sun]

3.5c to the 12th

They'll be another drop on tomorrow's update after which we'll see a rise again

Edited February 13, 2013 by Gavin.

[Stu_London]

Minimum today of 0.6C and maxima just under 2C, should see a drop to about 3.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET near

3.2C to the 13th (-1.0)

3.3C to the 14th (5.1)

3.4C to the 15th (5.0)

3.6C to the 16th (6.9)

4.0C to the 17th (9.8]

4.3C to the 18th (8.8]

4.5C to the 19th (8.5)

I think this prediction was victim of a rogue GFS run (so its not a criticism of the prediction) - now there is only one mild night predicted in the forseeable future (17th) and even that has been downgraded a little. I doubt we will now climb even as high as 4.0C by the 19th and it you believe the ECM something more like 3.5C might be more likely in that timeframe.