February 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[J10]

Apologies if already answered but scoring thread here.

[hillbilly]

Yes, March 2006 was impressive snowise for Scotland and the Midlands northwards. Infact, had it not been for a very mild final week, it would have been a notably cold month. As for later this month, I do indeed hope that it will be the coldest for some time and that would round off Winter 2012/13 nicely! Just out of interest, what was the CET for the second half of February 1996? It must have been pretty cold I would have thought although not as cold as the second half of February 2005 as that was the coldest since February 1986?

according to met office bradford[my nearest] the extended winter october to april had almost as many air frosts in 05/06 as 09/10!!!!!05/06 ..54air frost 09/10...57....the most being 1916/17 ...94!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[summer blizzard]

according to met office bradford[my nearest] the extended winter october to april had almost as many air frosts in 05/06 as 09/10!!!!!05/06 ..54air frost 09/10...57....the most being 1916/17 ...94!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yup, constant dry frosty nothingness.

[hillbilly]

Yup, constant dry frosty nothingness.

nevertheless i 06 was a later spring than 10 i remember picking my mate up from airport off australia flight on aptril 4th to temp of -4 and all the fields were yellow with lack of warmth unlike 10 being green fields

[March Blizzard]

February is a bit of an unusual month in the 1961-1990 mean, as it has a very pronounced unusually cold period in the middle of the month:

The first half of the month has a mean of 4.0C and the second half 3.5C. So technically its a 'cooling month', however in reality its pretty stable temperature-wise.

Would never have guessed that. I'd be interested to find out where i could find graphs like that for the other months...hint

[Don]

Yup, constant dry frosty nothingness.

Winter 2005/6 was just plain boring in my opinion. Even the very mild following Winter contained more interest!

[J10]

Winter 2005/6 was just plain boring in my opinion. Even the very mild following Winter contained more interest!

A very good winter here, with 2 heavy snow event from NW winds, one late November, the other early March, so technically you could say they weren't winter.

There were caused by an old fashioned winter weather pattern called a Greenland High, sadly lacking of late.

[damianslaw]

February is a bit of an unusual month in the 1961-1990 mean, as it has a very pronounced unusually cold period in the middle of the month:

The first half of the month has a mean of 4.0C and the second half 3.5C. So technically its a 'cooling month', however in reality its pretty stable temperature-wise.

For my own mean here in Hedon, temperatures plateau until about 5th March when they take off rapidly.

The atlantic traditionally goes into low gear during February and often the second half of the month is much drier than the first half with northerly and easterly airstreams having equal chances of dominating as westerly airstreams, so I'm not surprised that the rolling CET value for the month is preety much static. Another reason why it isn't a warming month as perhaps would be expected with increasing warmth from the sun is because this factor is cancelled out by SST's being at their coldest in late Feb.

Looking at the forecast, mmm a few days ago I was saying low 3's would be the lowest the CET is likely to end up, now I'm not so sure, there is a good chance we could end up in the high 2's which I think would be on a par with 2010.

Winter 2012/13 looks like ending up slightly colder than average, masking a winter of topsy turvy turns with the cold of the first half of Dec, mid-late Jan and more generally Feb cancelled out by the very mild 4 week period of mid Dec- mid Jan, had we not seen such mild weather then it would have been quite a cold winter overall and similiar in feel to winter 08/09.

Not sure how winter 12/13 is ranking in CET terms against the likes of 00/01, 05/06 and 08/09.

[Weather-history]

Not sure how winter 12/13 is ranking in CET terms against the likes of 00/01, 05/06 and 08/09.

It is likely going to be cooler than 2000-01 and possibly 2005-06.

I think it will end up between 2008-09 (3.5) and 2005-06 (4.1)

[Don]

There were caused by an old fashioned winter weather pattern called a Greenland High, sadly lacking of late.

Apart from during the Summer! Perhaps the modern Summer pattern?

[J10]

Apart from during the Summer! Perhaps the modern Summer pattern?

That's why I said "old fashioned winter weather pattern called a Greenland High"

They do seem to be prevalent in Summer lately as you say.

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 16th

[Don]

That's why I said "old fashioned winter weather pattern called a Greenland High"

They do seem to be prevalent in Summer lately as you say.

You did, sorry. Anyway, lets hope that the Greenland High soon realises the error of its ways and returns for the correct season, i.e. Winter and not waste our time during the Summer months!

[Stu_London]

mid to high 2s looks favourite landing point to me.

Mid if the cold stays until month end

High if it warms up a bit in the last couple of days.

[damianslaw]

It is likely going to be cooler than 2000-01 and possibly 2005-06.

I think it will end up between 2008-09 (3.5) and 2005-06 (4.1)

Thanks for these stats. As I thought the winter will end up quite close to winters 08/09 and 05/06.

After a long run of well above average winters during the period 87/88 - 07/08, with only 4 winters below average i.e. 90/91, 95/96, 96/97 and 05/06, to record 4 below average winters in a run of 5 is preety good going, there has definately been a sea change in terms of below average seasons since 2007, as evidenced both in our winters and more notably perhaps our summers, though this trend hasn't been the case with our springs and autumns.

[J10]

You did, sorry. Anyway, lets hope that the Greenland High soon realises the error of its ways and returns for the correct season, i.e. Winter and not waste our time during the Summer months!

We can agree on that.

[Roger J Smith]

I'm going to post my usual CET stats and trivia to start off March later tonight. Some people have been asking where's the table of entries? That's now over in the scoring thread. We don't update that very often so it tends to sink down the page but obviously it has been updated since 1 Feb (probably the last post over there was in the first week of the month). I will include a link to that thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-201213-cet-competition-the-scores/

^^ Jan scores and Feb entries ^^

GO THERE NOW AND WIN A VALUABLE NON-CASH PRIZE THAT YOU CAN REDEEM AT ANY LOCAL COBRA LOCATION

[Summer Sun]

3.9c to the 17th

[hillbilly]

maybe we can get nearer to 3.0 than4.0 looking at the week ahead

[Summer Sun]

3.9c to the 18th

[Stu_London]

maybe we can get nearer to 3.0 than4.0 looking at the week ahead

Still think we have an excellent chance of going sub 3C to be honest

[North-Easterly Blast]

Thanks for these stats. As I thought the winter will end up quite close to winters 08/09 and 05/06.

After a long run of well above average winters during the period 87/88 - 07/08, with only 4 winters below average i.e. 90/91, 95/96, 96/97 and 05/06, to record 4 below average winters in a run of 5 is preety good going, there has definately been a sea change in terms of below average seasons since 2007, as evidenced both in our winters and more notably perhaps our summers, though this trend hasn't been the case with our springs and autumns.

Winter 2005-06 was fairly close to, or even a shade above average by 1961-90 standards. Winter 1996-97 was around the 1961-90 average, although it had a very mild February.

I am emphasizing my point that a winter that is only very slightly below the long term average is hardly a cold winter. A winter like 2005-06 for example was basically a close to average winter, as it was close to the average for the whole of the 1900s. For a truly cold winter in the UK, then I would say that the winter CET should be around 3.0*C or less. Winter 2009-10 was definitely in the truly cold category. Winter 1995-96 probably just about makes the cold category, whereas winter 2008-09 was really in the "slightly below average category" rather than a particularly cold winter. Winter 2012-13 looks set to end up as "close to, or slightly below average", but hardly a cold winter, as it has still definitely not been a 2009-10, or not even a 1995-96. Winter 2011-12 was in the mild category at 5.1*C overall, although not excessively so.

Winter 2012-13, although it has not been a big freeze by any means, it will still be seen as a respectable winter by the standards of the last 25 years, and a significant improvement on most winters since 1988.

As for the summers, summers 2009 and 2010 were above average, both by 1961-90 and 1971-2000 standards, although hardly warm. Summer 2008 was close to average, whereas summers 2007 and 2012, and also 1998, were just slightly below average, but hardly cool summers. Only summer 2011 stands out as a truly cool summer in recent years. For a summer in the cool category, I would say that a summer CET less than 15*C fits the cool category. On the other hand, if the summer CET is above 16*C, then I would say that a UK summer is considered warm.

[Optimus Prime]

But your whole theory doesn't take into account over the space of 3 months warm and cold often cancel each other out and only in exceptional circumstances does one rule fastly over the other

It might be argued 0.3 below normal should be looked upon as same in significance as a single month being 0.9c below normal. Of course that would mean winter 1962/1963 which averaged 4.6c below normal should be looked in significance as a single month being 13.8c below normal in winter. That might perhaps reiterate how unbelievable that winter was.

[Optimus Prime]

So no I think what you've been saying hold little or no ground when taken into account a 3 month season (but course does when looking at months individually)

[North-Easterly Blast]

But your whole theory doesn't take into account over the space of 3 months warm and cold often cancel each other out and only in exceptional circumstances does one rule fastly over the other

It might be argued 0.3 below normal should be looked upon as same in significance as a single month being 0.9c below normal. Of course that would mean winter 1962/1963 which averaged 4.6c below normal should be looked in significance as a single month being 13.8c below normal in winter. That might perhaps reiterate how unbelievable that winter was.

Winter 1962-63 was the third coldest winter on record in the CET series from 1659. Winter 1739-40 was just fractionally colder than 1962-63 but the only significantly colder winter that we are recorded to have had was in 1683-1684.

I know that it would be virtually impossible to get a winter made up of the likes of December 1890, January 1963 and February 1947, which would give an overall value of around -1.6, but I can certainly say that winter 1683-84 came pretty close to a whole winter made up of Dec 1890, Jan 1963 and Feb 1947, with an overall average of around -1.2.. In fact in the 1600s all the month's CETs are to the nearest 0.5*C, and we can not be entirely sure how each month was to the nearest 0.1*C, so there is even a slight possibility that winter 1683-84 was in fact very slightly colder than the CET figures state.

The CET series began around the middle of the Little Ice Age which began during the 1400s, so we can obviously see no records that state what UK temperatures were like during the 1400s, 1500s and early part of the 1600s, but I certainly think that there is a strong chance that the UK experienced one or maybe two severe winters at least comparable to 1962-63 in the 200 years prior to 1659 that we don't know about, or even another winter like 1683-84 at some point, so we cannot definitely say that this is the coldest winter the UK has ever experienced in a millennium or longer.