February 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[Weather-history]

If February comes in sub 4C, it will be only the 3rd time in the last 25 years that both January and February have both come in sub 4C, the other occasions were 1991 and 2010

The last occasion there were 2 consecutive sub 4C Februarys was 1986, 1987

[Stu_London]

I'd put big money on sub 4C happening Mr D.

[Summer Sun]

3.9c to the 19th

[damianslaw]

Winter 2005-06 was fairly close to, or even a shade above average by 1961-90 standards. Winter 1996-97 was around the 1961-90 average, although it had a very mild February.

I am emphasizing my point that a winter that is only very slightly below the long term average is hardly a cold winter. A winter like 2005-06 for example was basically a close to average winter, as it was close to the average for the whole of the 1900s. For a truly cold winter in the UK, then I would say that the winter CET should be around 3.0*C or less. Winter 2009-10 was definitely in the truly cold category. Winter 1995-96 probably just about makes the cold category, whereas winter 2008-09 was really in the "slightly below average category" rather than a particularly cold winter. Winter 2012-13 looks set to end up as "close to, or slightly below average", but hardly a cold winter, as it has still definitely not been a 2009-10, or not even a 1995-96. Winter 2011-12 was in the mild category at 5.1*C overall, although not excessively so.

Winter 2012-13, although it has not been a big freeze by any means, it will still be seen as a respectable winter by the standards of the last 25 years, and a significant improvement on most winters since 1988.

As for the summers, summers 2009 and 2010 were above average, both by 1961-90 and 1971-2000 standards, although hardly warm. Summer 2008 was close to average, whereas summers 2007 and 2012, and also 1998, were just slightly below average, but hardly cool summers. Only summer 2011 stands out as a truly cool summer in recent years. For a summer in the cool category, I would say that a summer CET less than 15*C fits the cool category. On the other hand, if the summer CET is above 16*C, then I would say that a UK summer is considered warm.

[damianslaw]

Yes winter 05 - 06 was preety average, so i shouldnt have classed it as cold. I guess only winter 09-10 can truly rank as a cold winter but 95 - 96 was preety decent with mild weather only in early- mid jan. As for this winter it has reminded me a bit of winter 00-01, which has a few shortlived cold spells nothing severe interspersed with mild atlantic weather most notably first half of dec and early jan. Feb

01 certainly quote similiar to this feb in feel. Preety much odds on we will end up with a sub 4 finish this feb, can we go sub 3 even....

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 20th

[Bobd29]

Yes winter 05 - 06 was preety average, so i shouldnt have classed it as cold. I guess only winter 09-10 can truly rank as a cold winter but 95 - 96 was preety decent with mild weather only in early- mid jan. As for this winter it has reminded me a bit of winter 00-01, which has a few shortlived cold spells nothing severe interspersed with mild atlantic weather most notably first half of dec and early jan. Feb

01 certainly quote similiar to this feb in feel. Preety much odds on we will end up with a sub 4 finish this feb, can we go sub 3 even....

Sub 3C depends almost entirely on how clear night skies are for the last week; potential for very cold minima if they do clear for any length of time and there are plenty of days left to skew the CET average;.

[March Blizzard]

Sub 3C depends almost entirely on how clear night skies are for the last week; potential for very cold minima if they do clear for any length of time and there are plenty of days left to skew the CET average;.

I've heard something similar before this winter, mid-late Jan i think it was when we were expecting very low minima only to see cloud and temperatures hovering just on either side of freezing. The cloud has not played ball whatsoever to allow low minima bar a few nights here and there, the story of this winter, unfortunately. To look on the positive side this winter has, by and large, been good for the poor few who have to sleep rough.

[Weather-history]

Could it be the coldest 2nd half to winter since?

16th January-20th February 2013: 3.0C

[Guest pjl20101]

Apparently according to Global Warming on TWO he sees 3.23 as the final figure. So I may win on this month as I went for 3.2.

[Weather-history]

Could it be the coldest 2nd half to winter since?

16th January-20th February 2013: 3.0C

16th January-28th February 2010: 3.1C

16th January-29th February 1996: 2.3C

Could be the coldest 2nd half to winter for 17 years.

[Fozfoster]

16th January-28th February 2010: 3.1C

16th January-29th February 1996: 2.3C

Could be the coldest 2nd half to winter for 17 years.

yeah but thought it could be colder !! Thats why i guessed -1.5c!!!!!! I wish

[Stu_London]

16th January-28th February 2010: 3.1C

16th January-29th February 1996: 2.3C

Could be the coldest 2nd half to winter for 17 years.

If we averaged 0C between now and the end of the month and got a slight downward adjustment for February - we would beat 1996. Not impossible but need that cloud to clear at night

[North-Easterly Blast]

If we averaged 0C between now and the end of the month and got a slight downward adjustment for February - we would beat 1996. Not impossible but need that cloud to clear at night

I very much doubt we will fall below 2.5*C and beat 1996, as there looks to be a good deal of cloud around for most areas and the final three days do not look that cold and could see temperatures returning closer to average as the upper air temps warm up; even beating 2010 looks shaky based on both these factors expected. I really think that the CET will finish close to 3.0*C, possibly a shade above, or even possibly a fraction lower. One thing that is certain now, is that this February will end up at least the second coldest for 17 years, which is still quite some achievement as February has rarely been below the long term average in the last 25 years, and only Feb 2010 stands out as a colder than average February in the last 17 years.

Despite a relatively cold February, there has been little in the way of significant snowfall this month. One of the few instances I can think when we had a similarly cold February as this year but little snowfall was in Feb 1984. That month was cold in the middle to latter half but was dominated by high pressure and saw little snowfall. I do not think Feb 1987 brought much in the way of widespread snowfall even though that was quite cold in the middle to latter half. Feb 1981 had a similar CET to what this month is likely to see, and that wasn't especially snowy, but a number of areas in the west and through the Midlands saw a decent snowfall around the 22nd / 23rd.

February 2013, despite its general coldness, will turn out poor for snowfall for most parts of the country.

[Summer Sun]

3.6 to the 21st

[hillbilly]

If we averaged 0C between now and the end of the month and got a slight downward adjustment for February - we would beat 1996. Not impossible but need that cloud to clear at night

we dont have to have clear skies at night to give low cet both 1986 and 1947 gave sub zero cet due to very low maxima and not minima

[March Blizzard]

we dont have to have clear skies at night to give low cet both 1986 and 1947 gave sub zero cet due to very low maxima and not minima

Not strictly true in the case of 1947, hillbilly. The end of February 47 had some extremely low minima, with -20C and below in many places across the country.

The point you make is still valid, continuous low maxima alone can obviously result in a low overall CET value.

[Richard Lake]

I take it Mr-Data is now Weather-history? Why the name change... I probably wasn't the only one who got used to it.

[Summer Sun]

3.5c to the 22nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is -0.9C (seems a bit high?), while maxima are forecast to be around 3C, so 3.4C is likely on tomorrows updates.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

3.3C to the 24th (-0.1)

3.2C to the 25th (1.0)

3.2C to the 26th (2.8]

3.2C to the 27th (3.8]

3.3C to the 28th (4.5)

After corrections, I reckon 35% chance of 3.1C,

20% for 3.2C and 3.0C,

10% for 3.3C,

10% for 2.9C.

5% split between 2.8C and 3.4C

[Weather-history]

After corrections, I reckon 35% chance of 3.1C,

20% for 3.2C and 3.0C,

10% for 3.3C,

10% for 2.9C.

5% split between 2.8C and 3.4C

Taking those values, the final winter CET be from 3.7C to 3.9C

And the second half of winter having a CET from 2.5C to 2.9C

[reef]

Taking those values, the final winter CET be from 3.7C to 3.9C

And the second half of winter having a CET from 2.5C to 2.9C

Indeed, its actually looking like it will have been a respectably below average winter.

Its pretty amazing to get four in five below average winters and even more so when you consider just two of the last fifteen winter months have been above average. Back in the early 2000s that would have seemed unbelieveable!

[Weather-history]

Since and including April 2012 and up to January 2013, 6 of those months were below the 1961-90 average. Remember the debates that raged of that we will struggle trying to get below average months? Getting excited over months that were only 0.1 or 0.2 C below the 1971-2000 average because it seemed such a struggle to achieve? And here we are now and we have returned 6 within a 12 month period that were below the 1961-90 average let alone 1971-2000 and 1981-2010. Could February 2013 be the 7th such month?

I reckon since and including January 2010, we have returned 17 below 1961-90 average months, that's out of 37.

To reach the 17th below 1961-90 average month in the previous 10 years ie January 2000 to December 2009, it took to the 79th month of that decadal period.

Something has definitely happened in the last 6 years, a shift away from constantly returning above average months dotted with the odd below average month, to an increase in frequency of below average months.

[summer blizzard]

Since and including April 2012 and up to January 2013, 6 of those months were below the 1961-90 average. Remember the debates that raged of that we will struggle trying to get below average months? Getting excited over months that were only 0.1 or 0.2 C below the 1971-2000 average because it seemed such a struggle to achieve? And here we are now and we have returned 6 within a 12 month period that were below the 1961-90 average let alone 1971-2000 and 1981-2010. Could February 2013 be the 7th such month?

I reckon since and including January 2010, we have returned 17 below 1961-90 average months, that's out of 37.

To reach the 17th below 1961-90 average month in the previous 10 years ie January 2000 to December 2009, it took to the 79th month of that decadal period.

Something has definitely happened in the last 6 years, a shift away from constantly returning above average months dotted with the odd below average month, to an increase in frequency of below average months.

Also, no month has been more than 0.2C above the 1981-2010 average since last March.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Indeed, its actually looking like it will have been a respectably below average winter.

Its pretty amazing to get four in five below average winters and even more so when you consider just two of the last fifteen winter months have been above average. Back in the early 2000s that would have seemed unbelieveable!

The reason for the much warmer 1971-2000 winter average is that the 1990s were exceptionally warm, and also there were some mild winters in the early to mid 1970s too.

A winter with a CET of 3.8*C is hardly a cold winter. It is basically just a close to average to slightly below winter. The 1961-90 winter average is 4.1*C. In my books, to say that a winter is truly cold then it needs a CET of around 3.0 or below. 2009-10 was definitely a cold winter, 2008-09 was slightly below average though not a particularly cold winter. With a CET of 5.1*C, then 2011-12 was a mild winter overall.

Winter 2012-13 will go down clearly as a colder winter than most winters in the last 25 years although it wasn't particularly cold and temperatures overall were not far from average. In most periods of pre 1988 standards historically, winter 2012-13 wouldn't be seen as anything other than a typical average winter, it is just that by the standards of the last 25 years it is seen as cold.