February 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[Stu_London]

Based on todays 12z

13th - 3.3C

14th - 3.3C

15th - 3.4C

16th - 3.5C

17th - 3.6C

18th - 3.6C

19th - 3.6C

What a difference a day makes - probably even colder if you go with ECM

[Stu_London]

A rather suprising rise to 3.5C to the 13th.

Yesterdays maxes have come in at 7C, which must be very late readings. Small timing differences can make all the difference. Had the surface cold been able to hang on for a further 3-4 hours, we would probably be at 3.3C still

Last nights minima was a rather chilly 1.1C, which I find a little curious.

[Summer Sun]

A rather suprising rise to 3.5C to the 13th.

Yesterdays maxes have come in at 7C, which must be very late readings. Small timing differences can make all the difference. Had the surface cold been able to hang on for a further 3-4 hours, we would probably be at 3.3C still

Last nights minima was a rather chilly 1.1C, which I find a little curious.

The CET was 3.5 to the 12th so no rise its remained as it was

[reef]

A rather suprising rise to 3.5C to the 13th.

Yesterdays maxes have come in at 7C, which must be very late readings. Small timing differences can make all the difference. Had the surface cold been able to hang on for a further 3-4 hours, we would probably be at 3.3C still

Last nights minima was a rather chilly 1.1C, which I find a little curious.

Its one of the bizarre things about the 0900-0900 system. I may be mistaken, but as far as Im aware you take the maximum in the previous 24 hours and assign it to the day before and the minima and assign it to the next day. That leaves the odd situation where the temperature was warmest on second day but in the statistics its the other way around.

[Summer Sun]

3.6c to the 14th

[Weather-history]

It has got me thinking looking at the models, could the second half of February be the coolest 2nd half to February since.....?

Edited February 15, 2013 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It has got me thinking looking at the models, could the second half of February be the coolest 2nd half to February since.....?

2005, i would have thought

[Stu_London]

2.4C for the 2nd half of Feb 2005 - I think the 3rd week of this Feb will be around 4C - so the last week would need to be below 0.8 - not impossible if a sustained easterly occurs - the slacker and clearer the better - a SE flow works

[Stu_London]

1986 would be the next one back - at minus 1.4C, unlikely to be beaten this year or anytime soon.

[summer blizzard]

Was 2010 not pretty cold in its latter half? Additionally the latter half of 2006 was probably colder than 2005.

[Stu_London]

Was 2010 not pretty cold in its latter half? Additionally the latter half of 2006 was probably colder than 2005.

Both warmer - 2006 considerably so.

15/2/2010-28/2/2010 - 2.9C

15/2/2006-28/2/2006 - 4.0C

[Don]

Both warmer - 2006 considerably so.

15/2/2010-28/2/2010 - 2.9C

15/2/2006-28/2/2006 - 4.0C

Winter 2005/6 was certainly disappointing overall and the late February cold spell was tamer than February 2005.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Winter 2005/6 was certainly disappointing overall and the late February cold spell was tamer than February 2005.

March was impressive for Scotland though, a foot of snow for Aberdeen at the start of the month and 6-12 inches for the central belt on the 12th, average temperature of 3.1C here. Anyway, more to the point, late February 2013 could well be the coldest for a good few years for the CET zone, either with the ECM or the GFS.

[Don]

March was impressive for Scotland though, a foot of snow for Aberdeen at the start of the month and 6-12 inches for the central belt on the 12th, average temperature of 3.1C here. Anyway, more to the point, late February 2013 could well be the coldest for a good few years for the CET zone, either with the ECM or the GFS.

Yes, March 2006 was impressive snowise for Scotland and the Midlands northwards. Infact, had it not been for a very mild final week, it would have been a notably cold month. As for later this month, I do indeed hope that it will be the coldest for some time and that would round off Winter 2012/13 nicely! Just out of interest, what was the CET for the second half of February 1996? It must have been pretty cold I would have thought although not as cold as the second half of February 2005 as that was the coldest since February 1986?

Edited February 16, 2013 by Don

[summer blizzard]

Both warmer - 2006 considerably so.

15/2/2010-28/2/2010 - 2.9C

15/2/2006-28/2/2006 - 4.0C

I had not realized how cool the first half of Feb 10 must have been then, i just remember snow in the second half.

Winter 2005/6 was certainly disappointing overall and the late February cold spell was tamer than February 2005.

Strange winter, fantastic cold spells in late November and early March but in Winter a kind of numb coolness. I recall it being most interesting because of a complete lack of mild spells and 'easterly topplers'.

[Weather-history]

The 2nd half of February 2004 is somewhat forgotten, that was chilly. The CET for that month tumbled from those extraordinary heights.

It's interesting that for three years on the trot, 2004 to 2006, the mid February to mid March periods were chilly and wintry at times with northerly and easterly flows.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Weather-history

[coram]

Looks like we will be on about 4C by the 19th and then the possibility of a big fall over the last 10 days of the month. There appears to be good cross model agreement for an easterly setting up and for that easterly to last, in some form or another, for a week or so. If that does happen we are likely to end up with a sub 3C month. My prediction is for a 2.7C finishing point.

[Gustywind]

Looking at expected temps from today can't see the Cet getting to 4 if it's only around 3.6 currently. I'd expect little if any changes over next few days before a fall from Tuesday onwards, hopefully to a sub 3c finish.

[The PIT]

2.9C here in Sunny Sheffield. A rise for the next few days with probably get it around 3.4C then downwards after that. GFS indicates spring like weather for the end of Feb at the moment but thats so far out who can say.

[Summer Sun]

Another rise yesterday up to 3.8c to the 15th

Edited February 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Stu_London]

According to the GFS in high resolution we would be 3.1C by the 24th. If the cold can hang about until month end, then sub 3C has an excellent chance.

The high point for this month is likely to be the 17th, although it could easily stay at 3.8C for the next 3-4 days as there is not a great deal of movement either way.

Another area of interest will be the rolling annual CET - This looks set to fall again and if March starts cold, we could get somewhere near the very low 9s during the month.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Stu_London

[Harve]

The 61-90 average for February is 3.7c and yet the same average up to the 15th is 3.9c. This implies that the second half of February is, on average, slightly cooler than the first half? That doesn't quite seem right to me.

[Stu_London]

Could well be - seas are still getting colder in the 2nd half and atlantic more likely to be weaker.

1986 was certainly colder second half

[reef]

February is a bit of an unusual month in the 1961-1990 mean, as it has a very pronounced unusually cold period in the middle of the month:

The first half of the month has a mean of 4.0C and the second half 3.5C. So technically its a 'cooling month', however in reality its pretty stable temperature-wise.

For my own mean here in Hedon, temperatures plateau until about 5th March when they take off rapidly.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is -0.2C while maxima are around 9C, so remaining on 3.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

3.9C to the 17th (4.5)

3.9C to the 18th (3.6)

3.8C to the 19th (3.7)

3.8C to the 20th (2.2)

3.6C to the 21st (0.4)

3.5C to the 22nd (0.3)

3.3C to the 23rd (0.2)