North West England Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 06z onwards

[MrSunshine]

Still snowing here, can't see a brief end to be honest.

[wysiwyg]

It is disappointing that we can't get low enough temperatures to avoid a thaw in January!

True. But without that warmer air around there would have been no snow at all!

[Cheshire Freeze]

It is disappointing that we can't get low enough temperatures to avoid a thaw in January!

As I said yesterday there has been no really deep cold pool. Thicknesses have been relatively high and without clear skies we've struggled to get temps low enough overnight

[swainclubber]

well that's the lot for my area. was nice whilst it lasted.

[MrYoung]

After the brief thaw this afternoon, temps have started to drop (now 1.1^oC) and the snow has picked up, hopefully it will add to the 5cm from this morning.

[Cheshire Freeze]

True. But without that warmer air around there would have been no snow at all!

Best scenario for this region is a la Jan 2010. Deep cold pool and a flow west of north to generate precipitation off the Irish Sea

[wysiwyg]

As I said yesterday there has been no really deep cold pool. Thicknesses have been relatively high and without clear skies we've struggled to get temps low enough overnight

Always the problem with a Scandinavian high. The NW will always be hovering in the milder side of the cold. We need a good solid Omega block centred over Greenland to really have a chance of snow followed by freezing daytime temps for west of the Pennines. Even then it's reliant on convection so very difficult to forecast in the medium timeframe.

EDIT: You beat me to it CC

Edited January 21, 2013 by wysiwyg

[ItIsGee]

PPn is starting to rotate around i the Irish sea...bringing snow in a northerly direction towards Manchester.

can anyone else see this or is it just my eyes wishing?

Gee

[greybing]

Well,I' m guessing some did rather well from the last batch of snow.As for here in tropical Eccles there was about an inch this morning but now there is about 20 % of that left!Currently the temp is 2.1c and the snow has been near constant all day.

Edited January 21, 2013 by greybing

[trickydicky]

Just wondering how others in the Lake District are doing?

Had light now all day, no accumulations and if anything the little snowcover that was in fields etc has started to thaw.

It seems that once again we have missed out. Even snowless areas like Blackpool and Lancaster have had some snow.

Why is this happening again?

Where do you live?

[wysiwyg]

PPn is starting to rotate around i the Irish sea...bringing snow in a northerly direction towards Manchester.

can anyone else see this or is it just my eyes wishing?

Gee

I think a lot may depend on how much moisture is left in that.

[Walkinglad2013]

Headline:

Cold and cloudy. Some heavy snowfall in the northeast.

Today:

Cold and cloudy for most, with some snow in Northern Ireland, and significant snowfall likely for northeastern Britain away from the coast, drifting here in the bitter wind. Southern counties of England may also see some sleet and snow.

Tonight:

Snow will continue in some eastern and especially northeastern areas. A band of rain, sleet and snow may also move into southwestern UK, giving snow and ice inland.

Tuesday:

Snow and piercing winds continuing over the northeast, before easing later. Drier but rather cloudy and cold elsewhere, although parts of southern Britain will probably see further sleet and snow.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cold but generally more settled than earlier this week. Still a few snow flurries Wednesday, but dry and brighter for many Thursday. Turning wet and windy in the northwest Friday.

Issued at: 0400 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

[Snow free zone]

Been snowing here for around 45 mins. Just got a bit heavier and it is sticking readily to all surfaces - surprising really as it was quite wet. It does feel cold though.

S.Cumbria BTW.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Snow free zone

[Walkinglad2013]

^{The northern half of the country will see the snowiest conditions through Monday and Tuesday.}

^{Northern England, Northern Ireland & Scotland will have snow throughout Monday, widely seeing 2-5cm and 10cm on hills. The heaviest snowfall will be in the northeast with up to 10-20cm of snow and gales causing blizzard conditions and drifting snow, needles to say conditions will be treacherous and the wind chill will be -9C! Elsewhere cloudy and cold with light snow flurries.}

^{Tuesday southwest England and Wales are at risk of another covering. The snow for the northern half of the UK will ease and move away to the north with only northeast Scotland having more snowfall on Tuesday.}

^{How long will this snowy and cold weather last?}

^{There is an end in sight! The snowy weather eases first. Through Wednesday and Thursday high pressure builds in from the north and brings lighter winds and keeps the weather fronts at bay. So drier with some clear spells but also becoming VERY cold at night -10 to -13 C possible over snow covered fields. Temperatures this low mean ICE will continue to be an issue.}

^{Through Friday, and on into the weekend the high pressure sinks south, this allows milder Atlantic air to finally begin it’s battle back from the west. It’s a slow process and there will be some sleet and snow, especially in the west but not significant amounts.}

^{Through the weekend temperatures by day will finally rise above freezing with the sunshine showing it’s face, this will start the slow thawing process of the lying snow. Overnight frosts will continue so the risk of ice remains.}

^{Will the cold weather return?}

^{Hints are that next week will become windy with gales and some rain in the north with snow confined to hills in the north. Plus frosts and again ice by night. Temperatures will be pretty much back to average. Though with a month of winter left, there is still time for the cold to bite back.}

^{If you can wrap up to get out to enjoy the snow, have fun but take care.}

[Rainy]

Where do you live?

There's surely plenty at Longridge -- only 5 miles or so from here, though lower.. Still snowing though not so heavy. Viz very poor, can't see the fells.

[dodge]

Left Oldham this morning with 3-4 inches. brushed off car, negotiated a few tricky streets, but still got into work in Manchester probably about 20 extra minutes due to busy roads.

So why have nearly all the schools in Oldham been closed then? Health and Safety much more of an issue than it was during the 80's when I walked in deep snow to my local primary school? Didn't know it was such a risky thing to do back then, but obviously going by today's standards, it appears I'm lucky to still be alive!

Edited January 21, 2013 by dodgeredee

[Walkinglad2013]

The northern half of the country will see the snowiest conditions through Monday and Tuesday.

Northern England, Northern Ireland & Scotland will have snow throughout Monday, widely seeing 2-5cm and 10cm on hills. The heaviest snowfall will be in the northeast with up to 10-20cm of snow and gales causing blizzard conditions and drifting snow, needles to say conditions will be treacherous and the wind chill will be -9C! Elsewhere cloudy and cold with light snow flurries.

Tuesday southwest England and Wales are at risk of another covering. The snow for the northern half of the UK will ease and move away to the north with only northeast Scotland having more snowfall on Tuesday.

How long will this snowy and cold weather last?

There is an end in sight! The snowy weather eases first. Through Wednesday and Thursday high pressure builds in from the north and brings lighter winds and keeps the weather fronts at bay. So drier with some clear spells but also becoming VERY cold at night -10 to -13 C possible over snow covered fields. Temperatures this low mean ICE will continue to be an issue.

Through Friday, and on into the weekend the high pressure sinks south, this allows milder Atlantic air to finally begin it’s battle back from the west. It’s a slow process and there will be some sleet and snow, especially in the west but not significant amounts.

Through the weekend temperatures by day will finally rise above freezing with the sunshine showing it’s face, this will start the slow thawing process of the lying snow. Overnight frosts will continue so the risk of ice remains.

Will the cold weather return?

Hints are that next week will become windy with gales and some rain in the north with snow confined to hills in the north. Plus frosts and again ice by night. Temperatures will be pretty much back to average. Though with a month of winter left, there is still time for the cold to bite back.

If you can wrap up to get out to enjoy the snow, have fun but take care.

[weatherobsuk]

How things stand here in the Peaks

[greybing]

How things stand here in the Peaks

Lovely part of the world. Edited January 21, 2013 by greybing

[Lake District Blizzard]

Just wondering how others in the Lake District are doing?

Had light now all day, no accumulations and if anything the little snowcover that was in fields etc has started to thaw.

It seems that once again we have missed out. Even snowless areas like Blackpool and Lancaster have had some snow.

Why is this happening again?

Over 4 inches here in the northern Lakes, where are you?

[Maz]

Best scenario for this region is a la Jan 2010. Deep cold pool and a flow west of north to generate precipitation off the Irish Sea

...flow just north of west for North Manchester thanks, west of north and I just see the anvils in the sunlight as they run over Merseyside, Cheshire and into the Peak!

Surprised at the amount of ppn that made it over the Pennines, seemed like about 10cm fell last night in Summerseat. Driving the work, similar cover until about Blackburn and then snowless from North Preston up to Lancaster. Been trying to snow in Lancaster all day, but not settling.

[itsnowjoke]

Stopped now

[Snowmad79]

Precip has cleared this area entirely now SE of the region and it looks set to remain dry for the next few days. That was probably the last of the Snow for this cold blast. If anything, we may see a bit of Sleet in the early hours of Friday morning before it quickly turns to rain as the breakdown occurs. The breakdown is progged a day and half sooner that previously modeled. Saturday evening was the starting point, but now it looks like Thursday night Friday morning.

So a cool to cold and very wet outlook from Friday morning onwards.

Personally, I'll be hoping that 72hr+ is modeled wrong as was the case leading up to this spell with regards to LP moving NE south of Iceland. Probably turn out to be right though

[snowdrifter]

There is definitely a small feature developing in the Irish Sea. May be seeing things but I'm sure its growing.

[Snowmad79]

And what happens after I declare the last snow for me ? it starts snowing again