Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

ECM full ensemble not many members trending cold most go for milder weather

What period does the ECM ensemble cover is it to t240?

Edited January 23, 2013 by Gavin.

[bradymk]

ECM full ensemble not many members trending cold most go for milder weather

What period does the ECM ensemble cover is it to t240?

i am sure the longer range ECM ensembles go out to day 15 whereas the op only goes to day 10.

[bluearmy]

whatever gavin - seems pretty average to me with an onshore flow likely for holland. noaa cpc 8/14 dayer is digging a pretty deep east coast trough. now that should make for something more interesting to our west.

[snowhope]

I think looking for trends in the models over coming days is now the way to go, we are not quite out of the current cold spell which has provided something for most. Still time to feel the effects of what winter can offer. Most indications of cold have been picked up in the relative short term by most models. Lets see what unfolds day to day without trying to predict an entire months weather a week before we even reach it. Chin up chaps, it could be worse. You could be a Swansea Ball boy!

[legritter]

Evening all ,going by modells plenty of interest coming up ,i do find it comforting seeing ECM eventually bringing low pressure in atlantic further south .as you are all aware by now we have a break down over this weekend .looking at faxes and data it could be an interesting breakdown especially if our front on friday just comes in with a touch more n/west s/east tilt .met office covering themselves and i would,nt be surprised if warnings will be updated tomorrow .an awfull amount of snow as fallen in my area but at my altitude 90 mtrs almost continuouse melt is removing it fast .just a quick look at all modells covering northern latitudes in northern hemisphere and i would say at this time absolutely any synoptic situation is likely in 10 days time .and i feel some very news worthy events in many countrys .modells certainly not boring and mother nature full of action at the moment . off to inspect my big flakes now falling and stand by your beds you lot in the s/east ,iv just had a peak on satellite . lets see what GFS is up too .cheers

[bobbydog]

Weather warning- issued 21.12 23/01/13

a vague warning of snow which probably won't happen, has been issued to netweather members. a period of heavy snow, covering the whole of the south east region is expected between never and not at all, for at least the next two weeks. it is expected (by netweather members) that between 10 and 20cm of snow could fall from the tiny blip seen briefly on the radar. there will be some light to moderate flurries throughout the night, just to wind us up and give the more gullible some hope that severe disruption is possible. several centimetres of lying snow will have disappeared by morning. a severe depression is expected to sweep through the netweather forums by the end of the week

the public should be aware that family members may be weather fanatics and will be at risk from eye strain from radar watching.

this warning may be updated to amber if prozac levels run low

[Methuselah]

A red warning for Hazzardous diving conditions?

As far as the models are concerned, I guess it's matter of wait-and-see?

[SMU]

Well slightly off topic-

Yes very average- in the overall means but higher peaks & troughs allowing for milder spells & cold spells, its interesting I wonder if everyone given a crystal ball for this winter would have taken dec & feb as it has been or hoped for something better-

the last 2 weeks have tempered an awful winter & pegged it back to something respectable- remember we should expect cold spells & some boats of snow, however this cold spell could go down as the 'top end' of average will as highlighted icedays & many snow events-

What I have noticed become a distinct feature in the last 5 years is shortwaves in the flow delivering lots & lots of snow- obviously occasionally they seem to scupper our cold from coming, however when its here youve got to be thankful for these things as these macro scale features in the big picture are responsible for the 20/30cm local falls that have cropped up since 2009....

S

[UV-RAY]

I've seen enough model output to be confident that the outlook is dire for cold In the next two weeks plus. All the hopecasting in the world won't change what is being shown, the fat lady is clearing her throat and I expect her to burst into song very soon.

[Panayiotis]

That shortwave to the south is bound to change things compared to the 12z which didnt have this feature. Changes at 60hrs!

[shotski]

I've seen enough model output to be confident that the outlook is dire for cold In the next two weeks plus. All the hopecasting in the world won't change what is being shown, the fat lady is clearing her throat and I expect her to burst into song very soon.

Please post some charts and explain. I am a bit sceptical

[UV-RAY]

Please post some charts and explain. I am a bit sceptical

No need to as the entire GFS, ECM, GEFS, UKMO and every minor model agrees, off course feel free to post any output that disagrees. Winters over, of course not, is there any cold on the horizon, even more unlikely.

[Jaffusmaximus]

No need to as the entire GFS, ECM, GEFS, UKMO and every minor model agrees, off course feel free to post any output that disagrees. Winters over, of course not, is there any cold on the horizon, even more unlikely.

The ECM would not agree, shows tentative signs of height rises in the North Atlantic

[Liam J]

That low over the Atlantic is insane with sustained wind speeds around 90mph, can you imagine the chaos should it decide to pay us a visit! Plenty of weather action coming up with strong signals for intense cyclogenisis close to the UK, we could be talking disruptive developments happening within relatively short time scales.

[NL]

Dont see how anyone can take the current modelling seriously with charts like that Liam..!!

[mountain shadow]

I've seen enough model output to be confident that the outlook is dire for cold In the next two weeks plus. All the hopecasting in the world won't change what is being shown, the fat lady is clearing her throat and I expect her to burst into song very soon.

What say you to the updated MJO forecast of Phase 8 at a moderate amplitude? Reading the NOAA mjo analysis they seem confident of the MJO to get to this amplitude in phase 8.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

Phase 8 can assist teleconnectally with height rises towards Greenland.

[nick sussex]

GFS 18hrs run so far is following tonights ECM run with that deep low in the USA engaging the PV over northern Canada helping to pull it nw.

Edited January 23, 2013 by nick sussex

[Chris W]

That low over the Atlantic is insane with sustained wind speeds around 90mph, can you imagine the chaos should it decide to pay us a visit! Plenty of weather action coming up with strong signals for intense cyclogenisis close to the UK, we could be talking disruptive developments happening within relatively short time scales.

The Met Office fax chart has that low at about 940mb close to Scotland by Sunday:

http://www.metoffice...oductId/4639085

As for Monday through to Wednesday it looks like there are some severe winds possible, for example:

http://cdn.nwstatic..../129/ukwind.png

Edited January 23, 2013 by Chris W

[Cheshire Freeze]

I honestly think people need to take a step back, assess what we've just had weatherwise and take stock of what the more seasoned posters have hinted at RE February's potential synoptics. I'm not being funny but it wasn't long ago the ECM, GFS, ECM ens, GEFS were all showing mild out to the edge of beyond, yet look what happened. Anyone posting a zonal chart at 2/300 + hours and expecting it to come off like that is living in la la land I'm afraid; especially as we've got 4 or 5 big players tropospherically and stratospherically gunning for cold. I went over these factors yesterday and the day before......I've just got in from work and quite frankly I CBA going over it again for it to fall on deaf ears.

In a nutshell 3-7th Feb I believe is a key period and one to keep an eye on. We're looking around day 12-14 for pattern change.

[TEITS]

What is really odd, is that you are looking at the most unreliable model at day 10 - well into FI, that is showing a zonal chart for the 2nd of Feb, and trying to suggest that this FI chart (from that unreliable model) is somehow representative to the whole blocking pattern for the next 26 days of that month (never mind that it is probably totally incorrect for the 2nd Feb)?

Hmmm.

Exactly and how depressing is it that we are searching yet again in deep F.I. That has been the theme this winter. We have constantly sat awaiting some mega blocking to arrive based on GPs forecast and may I say some of your posts in the Stratosphere thread. For example when the SSW occured on the 6th Jan many members including yourself said the end of Jan is when we could see some epic HLB. Now look at the chart below at +168.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

That is a shockingly poor chart from a coldies perspective and completely opposite to what some predicted earlier this month.

Lets not confuse our recent cold spell with what was predicted by some. For starters our current cold spell started on the 12th Jan only 6 days after the SSW. Our current cold spell did not consist of blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia. We were frankly lucky that the wedge of HP positioned itself where it did and that a SW did track S instead of NE. If this SW had of tracked NE then our current cold spell wouldn't of occured. Now was the SSW responsible for the SW tracking S? My answer is no it wasn't.

My negative attitude is nothing to do with our current cold spell coming to an end. This winter has been so frustrating because much was promised and yet very little has delivered from a N blocking point of view. The Greenland HP has been elusive and the NAO has rarely even dropped below -1 on the index scale. So forgive me if my patience is running thin and why I have little faith in future predictions of blocking occuring in Feb!

This is why im recent days i've been saying to members that promising signs from the Stratosphere or the MJO or whatever else mean absolutely nothing if this isn't being shown on the actual NWP.

[weatherguy]

Just about sums up a lot of the posts in here...

A short zonal spell is necessary if we are to get cold again as that canadian segment moves east. a potential reload is outside of the reliable timeframe anyway, so there's no point complaining if it doesn't magically show up as imminent in the model output.

We've just had a decent cold spell that hasn't even finished yet - We don't live in Canada, and we're not going to experience 2010 every year I'm afraid.

Edited January 23, 2013 by weatherguy

[nick sussex]

Overall the GFS 18hrs run in the higher resolution and the ECM agree on the upstream pattern, the UKMO also backs both with the important low at 144hrs.

The PV is expected to set up north of Hudson Bay and not be ejected into the Atlantic so the lower resolution GFS is unlikely to verify.

With an eastern USA trough expected then if we see more amplification the mild coming in over the weekend is likely to be shortlived.

We'll see over the next few days but with the MJO going into phase 8 and eastern USA troughing that hardly shouts turn the heating off!

So some hope this evening that things may turnaround in terms of colder potential. But we must have that deep low verify upstream to help pull those low heights away from Greenland as it engages the PV lobe in northern Canada.

Edited January 23, 2013 by nick sussex

[damianslaw]

As always best to stick to the reliable timeframe - which is normally the 144hr mark.

What a pity christmas day couldn't have arrived a month later - for the north it would have been a snowfest... I'm expecting some very high totals of snow over high ground on Friday, you have to wonder why no amber warnings are being shown for Friday in parts of Scotland - is it because it is the north I wonder.. the snow totals predicted are similiar to those predicted last friday yet then we have amber warnings.. I'm expecting the BBC to suddenly have to show amber warnings tomorrow, or indeed when the event starts, I don't think they have a clue how much snow could hit northern parts - atlantic fronts always have a significant oomph when they hit the northern high ground.

All models agree on a major low pressure system moving across the country on Sunday - we haven't seen such a low all winter yet, expect severe gales in places. Early next week looks decidely windy and wet for NW parts - preety standard late January fayre.

I'm hoping for a decent spell of calm weather during Feb preferably of the cold frosty variety, Feb is much more likely to deliver such conditions than December or January, and it is during the second half of Feb when we are most likely to see such weather as the atlantic traditionally goes into low gear. Its been ages since we have seen a dry sunny spell of any length.. indeed can't remember the last time high pressue settled over the country for more than a couple of days. Since April its been a low pressure dominated picture.

[chionomaniac]

Exactly and how depressing is it that we are searching yet again in deep F.I. That has been the theme this winter. We have constantly sat awaiting some mega blocking to arrive based on GPs forecast and may I say some of your posts in the Stratosphere thread. For example when the SSW occured on the 6th Jan many members including yourself said the end of Jan is when we could see some epic HLB. Now look at the chart below at +168.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

That is a shockingly poor chart from a coldies perspective and completely opposite to what some predicted earlier this month.

Lets not confuse our recent cold spell with what was predicted by some. For starters our current cold spell started on the 12th Jan only 6 days after the SSW. Our current cold spell did not consist of blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia. We were frankly lucky that the wedge of HP positioned itself where it did and that a SW did track S instead of NE. If this SW had of tracked NE then our current cold spell wouldn't of occured. Now was the SSW responsible for the SW tracking S? My answer is no it wasn't.

My negative attitude is nothing to do with our current cold spell coming to an end. This winter has been so frustrating because much was promised and yet very little has delivered from a N blocking point of view. The Greenland HP has been elusive and the NAO has rarely even dropped below -1 on the index scale. So forgive me if my patience is running thin and why I have little faith in future predictions of blocking occuring in Feb!

This is why im recent days i've been saying to members that promising signs from the Stratosphere or the MJO or whatever else mean absolutely nothing if this isn't being shown on the actual NWP.

I am sorry but at this point I will bow out gracefully to your better analysis and opinion, as it is now becoming quite clear to me that the stratosphere has not contributed to the tropospheric pattern at all over these last few weeks as you suggest, and it is quite obvious that we will not get any high latitude blocking throughout the rest of winter.

I should know better than to spend a lot of time reading research to the contrary and I will contact the metoffice and BBC immediately to inform them that they have been misleading the public in saying as much that the SSW may have contributed to the cold spell.

Thanks for clearing that up.

[TEITS]

Just about sums up a lot of the posts in here...

A short zonal spell is necessary if we are to get cold again as that canadian segment moves east. a potential reload is outside of the reliable timeframe anyway, so there's no point complaining if it doesn't magically show up as imminent in the model output.

What makes you think the zonal spell will be short? The 18Z certainly doesn't suggest this with a zonal pattern right till the end of the run. As for a potential reload and sorry but that isn't be shown on the model output at the moment.

Sorry but this thread is the model discussion thread and im merely posting what the models are showing. My posts might be unpopular right now but I don't post for popularity. I post on this thread to give my honest opinion of what the models are showing whether this is mild or cold. Currently there is no sign of any cold spell within at least +240 on any of the model output including the ensembles.

This denial of the mild model runs and hope of a sudden cold spell is ruining the integrity of this thread. My preference has always been to seek cold model runs but I always give an honest assesment of the model output even if I don't like what im typing!