Spring Weather Chat

[Summer Sun]

Geronimo.........

Warmer than average March? Odds may be increasing!

Could you please explain to me how that chart indicates a possible warmer than average March? I'm still learning some of these charts

[summer blizzard]

Could you please explain to me how that chart indicates a possible warmer than average March? I'm still learning some of these charts

Essentially it indicates stratospheric cooling in the upper atmosphere which may prompt a tropospheric response. The warm April's of 2009 and 2011 along with March 2012 both saw similar stratospheric conditions beforehand.

It's no guarantee but if the rest of the stratosphere follows suit then it's likely that a warmer pattern could prevail.

Of course we could go for gold and end up with a high on top of us.

[Summer Sun]

Essentially it indicates stratospheric cooling in the upper atmosphere which may prompt a tropospheric response. The warm April's of 2009 and 2011 along with March 2012 both saw similar stratospheric conditions beforehand.

It's no guarantee but if the rest of the stratosphere follows suit then it's likely that a warmer pattern could prevail.

Of course we could go for gold and end up with a high on top of us.

Thanks for the reply

[Milhouse]

I still dont subscribe to the warm dry Spring=dismal summer theory so i would welcome a dry warm March with open arms.

[Summer Sun]

I still dont subscribe to the warm dry Spring=dismal summer theory so i would welcome a dry warm March with open arms.

To be honest I think most of the country would welcome it after a wet summer and autumn we need a dry warm spell now to get the ground dried out

[shotski]

Essentially it indicates stratospheric cooling in the upper atmosphere which may prompt a tropospheric response. The warm April's of 2009 and 2011 along with March 2012 both saw similar stratospheric conditions beforehand.

It's no guarantee but if the rest of the stratosphere follows suit then it's likely that a warmer pattern could prevail.

Of course we could go for gold and end up with a high on top of us.

Erm thats slightly missleading summer blizzard, the stratosphere was always going to cool after a record warming event, what else

could it do ?

[shotski]

Just went through CFS daily all the way to 1074 hours and I couldn't find any high pressure over the uk,

the best I could find was a greenie high on the 17th march.

[Bottesford]

I'm hoping for a cold March and April dominated by drying dry arctic northerly/northwesterly winds followed by a HP dominated May but not too warm for walking in the countryside, cold weather doesn't feel that cold with sunshine by April anyway, polar maritime WNW'lys can feel very pleasant indeed like today with lots of nice sunshine.

Ah yes spring - the chance to finally get some time to walk in the countryside again without the need for an overnight stay. In winter by the time you reach a decent walking spot (1-2 hrs from here) you've only got a few hours until nightfall - well unless you want to get up & set off during the night for the sixth day in a row (not likely after a long week at work).

No such thing as 'too warm' for me when walking but yes in May - assuming you have access to the main part of the day - if its sunny it doesn't need to be especially warm to feel good. Evenings sat outside the pub are less tolerable though however!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Generally speaking if we get a very dry spell in the spring it will be followed by a wet spell at some point, but that doesn't necessarily mean a grey wet summer- the rain could set in during June and then fizzle out for July/August (as happened in 1990) or it could hold off until autumn (as happened in 1976). The contrasting Aprils of 2007 and 2012, and the comparative lack of contrast in the subsequent summers, is worth noting.

Indeed, many of the famous hot summers of the past were preceded by one or more unusual warm/hot spells during April and/or May- 1976, 1990, 1995 and 2003 for instance.

Whether I would welcome a warm dry March really depends on sunshine amounts and temperature variability/diurnal range- I would certainly happily take a spell like late-March 2012 again but am not sure I'd be fussed on a warm dry March with temperature homogeneity and variable rather than plentiful sunshine (March 2000 for instance).

Edited January 31, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[summer blizzard]

Erm thats slightly missleading summer blizzard, the stratosphere was always going to cool after a record warming event, what else

could it do ?

Several years in the past have seen slow declines to near average, this looks similar to recent warm springs where the stratosphere does a nose dive.

[Milhouse]

Generally speaking if we get a very dry spell in the spring it will be followed by a wet spell at some point, but that doesn't necessarily mean a grey wet summer- the rain could set in during June and then fizzle out for July/August (as happened in 1990) or it could hold off until autumn (as happened in 1976). The contrasting Aprils of 2007 and 2012, and the comparative lack of contrast in the subsequent summers, is worth noting.

Indeed, many of the famous hot summers of the past were preceded by one or more unusual warm/hot spells during April and/or May- 1976, 1990, 1995 and 2003 for instance.

Whether I would welcome a warm dry March really depends on sunshine amounts and temperature variability/diurnal range- I would certainly happily take a spell like late-March 2012 again but am not sure I'd be fussed on a warm dry March with temperature homogeneity and variable rather than plentiful sunshine (March 2000 for instance).

2003 ranks up there as a very warm and quite dry Spring despite May being slightly above average rainfall wise. It of course led to an amazing summer. 5 out of the 6 months from march - August were around 1c or more above average.

[syed2878]

i would gladly take a dry and warm spring and a dry avrage to hot summer, but i've no dout come spring and summer the ghp with nb will be back and vanish come next winter kind of takes the left trouser leg really.

[Summer Sun]

CFS long range for the first part of March

Temperature

Edited February 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Milhouse]

I guess that shows that high pressure over or just to the west of the UK is likely, very much like last March.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Funny thing is if you look at the CFS anomaly charts on Meteociel they show no such thing and haven't done each time I've checked. (updates twice a day I think) If anything, March has been consistently shown as cold and wintry.

[Guest pjl20101]

I find that very misleading to be honest Crewe cold. You need to actually go to the CFS via NOAA to get a more accurate picture and something that is more likely to happen.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I find that very misleading to be honest Crewe cold. You need to actually go to the CFS via NOAA to get a more accurate picture and something that is more likely to happen.

We'll see what happens, if it's cold it's cold and if it's warm it's warm. Those anomaly charts on Meteociel picked up the wet summer back at the end of Feb last year and showed it consistently. So I wouldn't be so certain I'm being misleading!

P.s I hope this summer is wet, cool and cloudy again. Can't stand the heat!

Edited February 3, 2013 by CreweCold

[reef]

CFS panel maps for March:

Temperatures generally cold everywhere.

Dry in the Scotland, Northern Ireland and North-west England, wet everywhere else.

Northern blocking likely with low pressure over southern areas.

April and May look pretty average temperature-wise. Rainfall looks rather below average in April but May is very wet. So perhaps a cool/average spring with above average rainfall is possible, it would certainly fit in with the last few months.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Those CFS anomaly maps remind me a lot of the pattern that we had in March 2001, a month which was dull and wet in the south, dry and sunny in the north-west, and snowy in the north-east. The projected temperature anomalies are also similar.

It's bound to change on subsequent updates of course- but goes to illustrate that not all signals are pointing towards yet another March of the warm anticyclonic variety.

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS panel maps for March:

Temperatures generally cold everywhere.

Dry in the Scotland, Northern Ireland and North-west England, wet everywhere else.

Northern blocking likely with low pressure over southern areas.

April and May look pretty average temperature-wise. Rainfall looks rather below average in April but May is very wet. So perhaps a cool/average spring with above average rainfall is possible, it would certainly fit in with the last few months.

Exactly, don't know where that projection of a warm March came from

[Summer Sun]

As ever some of the longer range models are going cold and wet whilst others are going warm and dry so take you pick

Beijing Climate Center

Please note this only updates every 3 months the next update will later this month

UK Met Office probability maps

40% chance of below normal temps during spring

40% chance of near average rainfall for the bulk of England and wales

Februaries update will be released anytime this week

IRI is going for above normal temperatures

WSI are going for above normal temperatures for the UK except Ireland this forecast will be updated on February 25th

[Summer Sun]

Now a quick look at March and when high pressure is over the UK

Low pressure then takes over before the high builds again

Just after mid month we get a cold flow developing March 2013 could turn out to be a month with a bit of everything some dry settled weather, with wetter periods followed by some colder air moving in at times giving some spring snow for some

[Guest pjl20101]

According to Gavin p on twitter he has hinted of an inconclusive picture for the spring which I clearly support. If anything his seasonal videos ought to be in these threads as they are very helpful and concise. Think we should look at the sunspot activity too because that will determine things even more....well in my books anyway.

We need BFTP on here to see his angle on it as well.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the video by Gavin P for Spring which was issued on 27.1.13

[Guest pjl20101]

Cheers Gavin for the link, another thing to watch out for this spring is the cold pdo waning and for a more neutral pdo to develop probably by may. This I believe will determine our summer weather and if it stays cold then we can say more or less another summer written off. However we need to look at it with an open mind and see what happens.