Spring Weather Chat

[Cheshire Freeze]

Think now there may be some truth in Crewe colds posts for march according to this current output by the CFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html.

Which basically indicates northern blocking and a meridional type of jet stream. Also I checked the solar ham website and solar activity is very low at the moment so not as encouraging as a week ago.

Encouraging for the cold lovers like me. Seen snow fall, and settle, here from a Cheshire gap streamer in March. You don't want it warm too early anyway.....leave that til later in spring

[Bottesford]

The link doesn't work

Fixed - works now

[Ben_Cambs]

I thought last August, especially around the Olympics, was pretty decent here. A look back at the Cam uni weather site shows that 28 out of 31 days from last August had a temperature of at least 20C+. There were plenty of days in the low-mid twenties, a couple of 30C+ days and a couple of decent thunderstorms thrown in for good measure, so overall it was a very good month IMO.

As for this spring, hopefully for some decent Arctic northerly outbreaks in the first half, and a gradual warm-up in the second half.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Ben_Cambs

[Milhouse]

I thought last August, especially around the Olympics, was pretty decent here. A look back at the Cam uni weather site shows that 28 out of 31 days from last August had a temperature of at least 20C+. There were plenty of days in the low-mid twenties, a couple of 30C+ days and a couple of decent thunderstorms thrown in for good measure, so overall it was a very good month IMO.

As for this spring, hopefully for some decent Arctic northerly outbreaks in the first half, and a gradual warm-up in the second half.

Some parts of the country did have a summer last year as you point out, it was just concentrated towards the latter half of the season and into the first part of September.

What i dont want to see this spring is any cloudy raw easterlies. If it has to be cold then let it come from brief clear northerly like the 8th April 2005, then back to mild and dry please.

[Summer Sun]

I think we will see a cold start to March with it warming up as we get to mid month and beyond with possibly above average temperatures at times

[Guest pjl20101]

You have to go down the long route in that case on the main NOAA site. It may work from other software components and I think I've posted something already from their onto here from exactly the same web page.

Crewe Cold I think the peturbation cyle really has kicked in and it will be very difficult to stop.

Edited February 5, 2013 by pjl20101

[Summer Sun]

Here's some dream summer charts guys

One of these summers we will see charts like that over us

[Bottesford]

ooo - please please can I have dream summer charts on 22nd June this year that's all I ask! 1400 feet asl in Buxton my wedding is taking place that day and I know just how dire it can get up there... A massive hp right over the UK would be just perfect!

[lesta_snow]

I didn't really know where to post this question so I've decided to ask here! Why doesn't the UK get large snow falls like the US?

[Bottesford]

Because we're surrounded in temperature moderating ocean which keeps temperatures up in winter and down in summer. That's a the short version of it...

[Terminal Moraine]

I didn't really know where to post this question so I've decided to ask here! Why doesn't the UK get large snow falls like the US?

In addition to Bottesford's post above.

The USA has the benefit of unmodified arctic air meeting unmodified, or very little modified, tropical air; the perfect recipe for snow on the northern flank of any depressions crossing the country.

The equivalent in this country would be a persistent E/NE flow from Russia, or the far east of northern Europe, meeting a succession of depressions moving east along the English Channel or across southern England.

Rather like February and early March 1947 in fact.

[Interitus]

ooo - please please can I have dream summer charts on 22nd June this year that's all I ask! 1400 feet asl in Buxton my wedding is taking place that day and I know just how dire it can get up there... A massive hp right over the UK would be just perfect!

Congratulations (I think that's right) Buxton would be a picturesque place for a wedding, but a bit of gamble weatherwise at any time of the year!

With the approach of Spring now it's been nice in recent days to start to feel the warmth of the sun again here in north Cheshire, with the catkins, spring bulbs, and early buds breaking on the hedgerow dog roses and hawthorns.

[Milhouse]

The Tulips are just starting to break the surface here and the snowdrops have been fully out for about a week or so. Looking foward to seeing the fresh growth on the hedgerows and the grass verges all lush and green again.

[summer blizzard]

With the stratosphere still cooling and now below average at 10hpa i remain confident of a warmer than average March...

[Frozen Britain]

With the stratosphere still cooling and now below average at 10hpa i remain confident of a warmer than average March...

Are there any further warmings forecast to take place in the coming weeks?

[dec10snow]

All I ask for of Spring is some dry weather. You know it's bad when your potted plants have given up taking in more water (had to tip excess water out a couple of weeks ago). Dry... It's all I ask for....

And maybe a cold and snowy march, as long as its not the half hearted cold we've had so far this winter, as this ends up producing nothing here in the SW. If its not going to be properly cold, then along with April and May, some sun would be nice with the dry. And a nice lot of warmth. Maybe some thunderstorms thrown in for good measure!

I'm not asking for much am I?

[March Blizzard]

I'd really like to see a genuinely cold march, a bit of everything in April and a warm, dry May. How Spring should be.

[summer blizzard]

Are there any further warmings forecast to take place in the coming weeks?

Not from the top to my knowledge.

I don't expect the effect to feed through until late Feb anyway.

[reef]

With the stratosphere still cooling and now below average at 10hpa i remain confident of a warmer than average March...

I think thats taking the stratosphere too literally SB. As Chio would say in the other thread, a warm or cold stratosphere at 10hPa at the North Pole doesnt guarantee anything here in the UK. Blocking after all has to be in the right place. April 2011 for example had the polar vortex trapped over Greenland and the pole all month, yet blocking prevailed in the mid-latitudes in the correct place to give persistent warm weather.

[summer blizzard]

I think thats taking the stratosphere too literally SB. As Chio would say in the other thread, a warm or cold stratosphere at 10hPa at the North Pole doesnt guarantee anything here in the UK. Blocking after all has to be in the right place. April 2011 for example had the polar vortex trapped over Greenland and the pole all month, yet blocking prevailed in the mid-latitudes in the correct place to give persistent warm weather.

Yes, 2011 was a result of a +AO but zonal winds remaining weak like March 2012. This is essentially what i foresee repeating (not solely based on the stratosphere, this just confirms my initial thoughts in the past few months).

Essentially i expect a dominant high pressure south and west of the UK (probably very close) from late Feb, being pushed further east through March (the result either being much warmer and drier than average or a more typical westerly N/S split).

[hillbilly]

The Tulips are just starting to break the surface here and the snowdrops have been fully out for about a week or so. Looking foward to seeing the fresh growth on the hedgerows and the grass verges all lush and green again.

was it last year i saw snowdrops early new year they are a bit later saw a few crocus trying to pake out other day think they will shrink back tomorrow

[hillbilly]

march used to be a winter month most of the 80s

[Chris K]

Out of interest, are there any 'long range' forecasts out yet for Spring, similar to the way they are made for winter? I realise not to take them literally as details always change - was just wondering if there were certain trends showing currently and what forecasters made of them.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Chris K

[Summer Sun]

Out of interest, are there any 'long range' forecasts out yet for Spring, similar to the way they are made for winter? I realise not to take them literally as details always change - was just wondering if there were certain trends showing currently and what forecasters made of them.

Netweather and TWO will be releasing theirs towards the end of this month

I'm not aware of any yet

[Chris K]

Netweather and TWO will be releasing theirs towards the end of this month

I'm not aware of any yet

OK thanks I'll keep an eye out