Spring Weather Chat

[Guest pjl20101]

A thing that's concerning me for the spring is the low solar flux ATM and I'm led to believe if you have a higher solar flux during the warmer months you stand a better chance of a northerly tilted tracking jet stream and currently it's very low so I'm not sure if it will bode well for average atmospheric pressure patterns.

The brewer Dobson circulation that GP mentioned seems very stubborn currently and you wonder when it will run out of steam.

[Alex]

Low solar activity = weak angular momentum, negative PDO and a weak GWO. This has helped create warmer than average springs in recent years i.e. mar/apr 07, may 08, spring 09, april 10, spring 2011! However these conditions are not ideal for summer however tbis winter we have seen signs that an el nino pattern is appearing with a more active GWO/MJO, stronger angular momentum and the PDO measure is looking like it may become more neutral. I just wonder whether we can this year have a warmer drier summer?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that when it comes to northerly tracking jet streams, how strong and how far north is important. Most of the famous hot dry sunny summer months (and this goes for mid to late spring as well) have had either a weak jet tracking a long way north (allowing the Azores High to ridge a long way north-east), or a SW-NE tilt to the jet bringing us troughing in the mid-Atlantic and lows deflected northwards at out end of the Atlantic allowing a build of pressure over western Europe.

A strong jet tracking to the north of Scotland will generally bring considerable regional variation. A common split is dry sunny weather for south-eastern Britain, dull damp weather for north-western Britain and a zone of mainly dry but fairly cloudy weather in between the two. This pattern is relatively uncommon during the spring, being more commonly associated with July and August when we get a stronger Azores High and stronger westerlies on its northern flank, but it can crop up from time to time. Mays 2002, 2003 and 2011 for instance were strongly "westerly" months.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[marky810]

I guess this time of year can be very frustrating. On one hand you have the extra daylight, the sun slightly higher in the midday sky together with the noticable warmth that you can feel. The odd milder, brighter day where you notice some daffodils starting to bud.

There is now a small pinhead of light at the end of the long winter tunnel.

Then, you get a day like today and you feel you're almost back to square one!

[Bottesford]

Ha know exactly what you mean! This time of year really can drag on. Very ready for the new season.

[fendermaestro]

Out of interest, are there any 'long range' forecasts out yet for Spring, similar to the way they are made for winter? I realise not to take them literally as details always change - was just wondering if there were certain trends showing currently and what forecasters made of them.

Hi Chris, I've just noticed that Vantage Weather have posted their Spring 2013 forecast. Now I know that this is Jonathan Powell's (formerly of Positive Weather Solutions) weather site and I know that a number of the fellahs on here don't like Mr Powell, his forecasting or his forecasting methods but don't shoot the messenger! He is however prepared to have a go at longer range forecasting and based on the previous 2/3 seasons, he's not going for anything spectacular.

You can check out his forecast on www.vantageweatherservices.co.uk

Cheers

[Methuselah]

If Powell's latest LRF is based on the past 3 seasons, I'm very worried indeed: he got them all wrong!

[UV-RAY]

Based on sods law I'm predicting a cold and unsettled spring, one where heights over Greenland finally establish themselves leaving members of Net Weather to curse their luck again.

[Alex]

Surely on the basis of nature balancing itself out - a drier than average season should be expected soon - hopefully this falls during summer this year! However I miss out traditional 90s summer heat/storms scenarios which have been missing from recent summers!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Daylight slowly creeping into Svalbard - been a 'blackout' for months !!

http://www.snsk.no/longyearbyen.145587.no.html

[SnowObsessor90]

Based on sods law I'm predicting a cold and unsettled spring, one where heights over Greenland finally establish themselves leaving members of Net Weather to curse their luck again.

True, 'Gavin' may be starting to perk up at any early signs of spring but come the end of the summer I can quite easily see him being quite disgruntled again, just like several people on here now are as this season draws to a close.

[Summer Sun]

True, 'Gavin' may be starting to perk up at any early signs of spring but come the end of the summer I can quite easily see him being quite disgruntled again, just like several people on here now are as this season draws to a close.

One of these years things will click into place

By law of averages a drier and warmer than average summer will arrive at one point

[Mountain Snow]

One of these years things will click into place

By law of averages a drier and warmer than average summer will arrive at one point

Really hope it happens this year. At least anything will be an improvement on last summer!

[Cheshire Freeze]

True, 'Gavin' may be starting to perk up at any early signs of spring but come the end of the summer I can quite easily see him being quite disgruntled again, just like several people on here now are as this season draws to a close.

A cool, wet summer will do me. Just a few dry and sunny days inbetween.

Anything hot and humid and I'll be the disgruntled one!

[SnowObsessor90]

Really hope it happens this year. At least anything will be an improvement on last summer!

Well as odd as this may sound last summer was actually an improvement for me compared to several others before, it actually happened to be hot and sunny when I went on holiday down south for a week last July which is obviously something that cannot be taken for granted here in the UK.

Edited February 11, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[reef]

Any chance we can stick to discussing spring rather than summer?

[Milhouse]

I guess this time of year can be very frustrating. On one hand you have the extra daylight, the sun slightly higher in the midday sky together with the noticable warmth that you can feel. The odd milder, brighter day where you notice some daffodils starting to bud.

There is now a small pinhead of light at the end of the long winter tunnel.

Then, you get a day like today and you feel you're almost back to square one!

Its perishing out there when walking into the wind. Just need some mild looking charts to appear and.....hey presto.....the GFS 6z.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

When does Netweather release its Spring 2013 forecast? I was hoping for a repeat of recent years, i.e a warm spring month. After all we had a record warm April in 2007 and 2011. Also a very warm May 2008 (and last year Scotland broke its March temperature records 3 days running during late March 2012. So warm springs are the form horse!

Edited February 11, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Aaron]

If we do get another warm, sunny spring, let's just hope that it isn't followed by the exceptionally wet, dull and often cool summers that followed the months you mentioned, eh?

Edited February 11, 2013 by Aaron

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Exactly Aaron! Last hot summer 2006. So will 2013 be memorable? I suspect a warm spring month but a disappointing summer. But i'd love to be dramatically proven wrong! Anything but a repeat of 2008 or 2012. I'd even settle for the boring and unmemorable dry 2011 summer (in the south) over either of those..

Edited February 11, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Ginkrots]

Its perishing out there when walking into the wind. Just need some mild looking charts to appear and.....hey presto.....the GFS 6z.

Very, very far from mild, the majority of the UK is 0-5 degrees. Doesn't look mild in the near future to me

Edited February 11, 2013 by ginkrots

[Summer Sun]

Very, very far from mild, the majority of the UK is 0-5 degrees. Doesn't look mild in the near future to me

The chart Milhouse posted from this morning was mild these charts update automatically 4 times a day

The current run is slightly cooler

From British weather services on Twitter

Worth sitting down for this one. Our early research suggests Summer 2013 will buck the recent cool, wet trend across the UK....Hallylujah!!!

Not sure we are looking at a 76 or 95, in fact not sure it will be much warmer than normal, just drier and hopefully sunnier.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Gavin.

[Milhouse]

Very, very far from mild, the majority of the UK is 0-5 degrees. Doesn't look mild in the near future to me

It was taken from the 6z which showed 11/12c over a wide area. Now its more like 6-8c during the day as shown on the 12z but still pleasant and more preferable than the current 3c and blowing a gale.

[Aaron]

Summer 2013 will buck the recent trend? Shades of '76 anyone? There's a reason why there is no summer thread at the moment.. people have been saying so for long that summers cannot continue how they are, and we must get a 'belter' eventually.. well.. that is obviously not the case!

Edited February 11, 2013 by Aaron

[Bottesford]

Absolutely counting down till that very first warm feeling sunny day with temps into the teens you can get anytime from late Feb onwards (but normally late March). The nights are still chilly but the sun is up for a decent number of hours a day and actually feels proper warm again. Not long now...

Nevermind hot or dry summers we must be long long long due a sunnier than average one with far too much cloud since our last decent one in 2006. Spring wise we're statistically not due a warm or sunny one (much as it'd be nice!) and for me I could easily take a dire March and indifferent April for a good May and more importantly a perfect June....