Spring Weather Chat

[Bottesford]

Today really feels like spring - a cold, clear night leading into a perfect sunny day. Feels just wonderful and shows just how nice Feb can be at times (no wonder its my fav winter month!). Sadly it looks like vile low cloud rubbish is on its way this week. Still hopefully we can 'use up' this kind of rubbish weather now and have something better for spring proper. Of course it doesn't work like that but one can dream...

[summer blizzard]

Today really feels like spring - a cold, clear night leading into a perfect sunny day. Feels just wonderful and shows just how nice Feb can be at times (no wonder its my fav winter month!). Sadly it looks like vile low cloud rubbish is on its way this week. Still hopefully we can 'use up' this kind of rubbish weather now and have something better for spring proper. Of course it doesn't work like that but one can dream...

I agree, its bringing back memories of last March which is getting me all happy.

Looks sunny to me does the forecast though not as warm.

As the high resolution output goes i'll be at 12 days with no precipitation which is a feat.

Edited February 17, 2013 by summer blizzard

[Weather-history]

In terms of the raw number 1990 and 2004 are both close to the December-January values observed now and both saw a neutral-positive/weak El Nino and neutral-positive PDO develop. They were rejected from the PDO analogue list because 2004 was already positive and 1990 was trending negative rather than trending positive like now.

The problem I have with these analogues is that January 1990 and January 2013 were nothing like each other in terms of weather. The question is how can you extrapolate from this, future months if similar conditions produced dissimilar months at the start?

Edited February 17, 2013 by Weather-history

[summer blizzard]

The problem I have with these analogues is that January 1990 and January 2013 were nothing like each other in terms of weather. The question is how can you extrapolate from this, future months if similar conditions produced dissimilar months at the start?

In all honesty there's no guarantee, this year could follow one of the analogues or a mixture and they will change over time.

One area of success i have had is using them for a percentage based forecast and also for the hurricane season.

[Terminal Moraine]

The problem I have with these analogues is that January 1990 and January 2013 were nothing like each other in terms of weather. The question is how can you extrapolate from this, future months if similar conditions produced dissimilar months at the start?

I agree. I tried analogue forecasting over a number of years in the 60s and 70s but soon came to the conclusion that the routes to the particular type of weather in any one month are too diverse to place any faith in any one starting point; there are just too many variables which can upset the forecast from the outset.

I abandoned my efforts shortly before the Met Office abandoned their publicly available monthly forecasts for the same reason.

If the starting point of a forecast indicates a range of outcomes spanning almost the entire meteorological spectrum this climate can produce you might as well make put on a blindfold, make a list and stick a pin in it.

[Weather-history]

By the way, it is 6 weeks to Easter.

[Aaron]

I agree, its bringing back memories of last March which is getting me all happy.

Looks sunny to me does the forecast though not as warm.

As the high resolution output goes i'll be at 12 days with no precipitation which is a feat.

The Met forecast for Leeds have those dreaded low cloud symbols.

[March Blizzard]

By the way, it is 6 weeks to Easter.

Which, statistically, is more likely to see snow than Christmas day. I can understand people wanting dry, warm and sunny weather but they have to remember that Spring is still the second coldest season. March is colder than November, April colder than October and May cooler than September.

Warm spring weather is certainly possible but it isnt as common as many on NW like to think it is.

[Milhouse]

Are there any stats to back up the more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas. Before 2008 when was the last widespread Easter snowfall. Considering Easter mostly falls in April i wouldnt have thought snow is that likely.

[Summer Sun]

Are there any stats to back up the more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas. Before 2008 when was the last widespread Easter snowfall. Considering Easter mostly falls in April i wouldn't have thought snow is that likely.

Direct from the met office website

Snowy Easter

Easter 1-3 April 1983 - this was the snowiest Easter with Scotland, the Midlands and Kent getting up to 10 cm of snow. Over the past 45+ years, snow has fallen quite regularly, even in lowland areas. Snow fell in 1958, 1965, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1977 and 1978.

Warmest Easter

Easter Sunday, 22 April 1984 - temperatures climbed above 20 °C, with some stations breaking all-time records.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think historically snow has often been more common at Easter than at Christmas over many parts of the country, but it certainly hasn't been the case over the last couple of decades. There have been numerous Christmas Days with widespread snowfall since 1993, and snow cover was widespread in 1995, 2009 and 2010 (especially 2010) and to a lesser extent in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2004. During this period, the Easters of 1998 and 2008 were generally snowy and snow showers fell quite widely on Easter Monday 1994, but most recent Easters have been snow-free.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

Are there any stats to back up the more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas. Before 2008 when was the last widespread Easter snowfall. Considering Easter mostly falls in April i wouldnt have thought snow is that likely.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metinfo/NFL/easter.htm

[Aaron]

Perhaps it's snow falling, not settling.

[damianslaw]

The last two springs have delivered v contrasting fayre. The super mild march of last year giving way to a shocking April and topsy turvy may. In 2011 we saw record breaking warm April but again an indifferent may. I hope may 13 is this years march 12 or April 11.

The last two springs have delivered v contrasting fayre. The super mild march of last year giving way to a shocking April and topsy turvy may. In 2011 we saw record breaking warm April but again an indifferent may. I hope may 13 is this years march 12 or April 11.

[Guest pjl20101]

Terminal moraine, the analogues for last summer were really accurate as it was a mixture of all. But then again the AO was pivotal to last years summer washout. The skurge of last summer was the very powerful easterly QBO with the negative PDO acting very much as a shield for the pattern to remain.

[Guest pjl20101]

Latest solar update which the SSN has gone up a bit although still low, but trending well towards the spring and may have some detriment on the jetstream this spring: http://solarham.net/

[chris78]

possibly off topic so may be moved but......now FI is March could we stop assuming everyone likes cold.....like most on here I like cold in winter....but my ideal March day would be warm and sunny (im not alone in that at all)...so when I see post that says FI is an improvement...what does that mean....lovely sunny warm days...great......oh no the 'improvement' is a cold grey day with the outside chance of a sleet!

The cold assumption is acceptable Nov-Feb as pretty miuch everyone here wants cold then.....but in March and April....there maybe some die hards....but surely most want a bit of warmth by then.......

[Guest pjl20101]

Looked at the latest CFS output and have to say I'm not impressed with, whether the SOIs have increased or not does seem to be the case: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's inevitable that the model output thread will see cold bias replaced with warm bias over the next few months, as many people's thoughts move towards the idea of having the first BBQ, chances to sit out in the sun etc. Hopefully the more technical threads will keep going and will continue to provide an escape-ism for those who are put off by the bias in the main model output thread.

The one misconception that I will flag up, though, is the idea that those who maintain an interest in snow during the spring months are the ones who are interested only in snow (this generates rather heated arguments sometimes when northerlies show up in April). There are plenty of "weather lovers" who are interested in a variety of different weather types that can include spring warmth and/or spring snowfalls (in my case it includes both). If this is widely recognised, though, then I can see this spring running quite smoothly on the forum.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Guest pjl20101]

Cheers Ian its just that I think it's good to post links to show a bit of transparency of what is going on ATM. Wonder how the ECM output for the spring is going on? As that is a model you know where you stand with. Really we need Gavin p on this thread as he always gives honest viewpoints and maybe matt Hugo too.

[summer blizzard]

I'm a little surprised how little mention of the lack of precipitation there has been on this thread, both models indicate at least here that we will be odds on for 3 weeks with less than 10mm of precipitation (only one front from the north to come in about a week before pressure builds again), that's pretty exceptional. At a guess we probably have to go back to Feb 06 for such a dry spell.

[Weather-history]

I'm a little surprised how little mention of the lack of precipitation there has been on this thread, both models indicate at least here that we will be odds on for 3 weeks with less than 10mm of precipitation (only one front from the north to come in about a week before pressure builds again), that's pretty exceptional. At a guess we probably have to go back to Feb 06 for such a dry spell.

March-April 2011 was exceptional dry, only 33.9mm both months combined. Also mid March to early May 2007 was about 20mm for that period.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's March, April and May outlooks

Issued: Saturday 23rd February 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Cold weather continuing, and the risk of some snow

After the wet weather of the winter it is good news to find that high pressure is expected t dominate through March. This brings plenty of dry weather over all part of the country. It is likely to be cold at first with the winds from the east, and the likelihood is that the middle of the month may become colder, before we see a rise of temperature towards the end of March.

1/3 to 7/3*

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal for the time of year during this period across the UK. Most places are dry, although he far south of England could become more unsettled with some outbreak of rain later.

*8/3 to 15/3*

Hints that during this period temperatures may fall. This could lead to a short lived snap of cold weather and there chance of some late season snowfall, although this no lasting long. Generally though it will be dry with sunny spells, although sharp frosts overnight.

16/3 to 23/3*

A cold start t the week, but then temperatures are expected to rise as high pressure becomes established again. Most parts of the country remain in dry conditions with good spells of sunshine. It could become warm towards the end of the week.

*24/3 to 31/3*

The end of March is expected to remain on the mild side. High pressure is the dominant feature again across the whole of the UK and Ireland with dry weather for most Temperatures are likely to be above normal, although there is a risk of some overnight frosts.

Simon & Capn Bob

Dry start to April

Not great for May

Issued: Saturday 23rd February 2013

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*APRIL*

High pressure is expected to be in control of the weather for the first two thirds of the month. This brings with it the probability that the weather will be dominated by dry conditions.

Temperatures are likely to be close to normal for the time of year. By around the 20th there are indications that conditions may start to change. Temperatures are expected to rise as we enter a transition period. This transition period is expected to be characterised by a few days of rain, although this is probably not going to be to persistent. However, the transition does signal the start of a breakdown of spring conditions.

*MAY*

If you want sunshine, now might be the time to stop reading! Hopes are not high that May will be a fine one. The start of the month may be dry with sunny spells and the remnants of the last few weeks of high pressure close by. However, a change is expected to take place early in the month. Winds may well turn to the southwest as the jet stream becomes established over or just to the south. This would bring low pressure systems very close by with bands of cloud and rain sweeping through the UK and Ireland with temperatures slightly below normal. It will be windy at times too. The only hope of fair weather is for Scotland where, if the jet stream is sufficiently far south, may stay drier, although with some significant overnight frosts. Note though that confidence in Scotland being dry is not high.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

http://www.weatheron...ea&DAY=20130224

[Milhouse]

Well that would be an improvement on last year still. Warmth in March, whilst still welcome, doesnt have the same appeal as warmth in April.

[Bottesford]

hmm doesn't really look great that so hope the bit about May is wrong. March is too early to bother me too much - it really is April onwards it starts to matter.

Anyway we shall see and if it fixes itself for June I'd be happy with that!