Spring Weather Chat

[Polar Maritime]

I'm hoping for a dry Spring, with nice warm, clear sunny day's and light wind's with frost's by night.

[hillbilly]

hoping for a cold spring as 2006 and a cold wet may...a barn full of hay.........crocuses trying to sneek out at mo

[Guest pjl20101]

The current CFSV2 output from the NOAA site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Indicating a warmer and drier than average spring.

[summer blizzard]

Warmest PDO value since May 2010.

Weakest -QBO value since November 2011.

[Mark Neal.]

I have to say i love this time of year, daylight lasting further into the evening and waking up and its already light outside. I can finally get on the bike again and also get some ballooning in. 1st March the offical start of the ballooning rides season so hopefully a nice big high pressure over us by then. Would be lovely to have a lovely warm, dry spring and then a Settled summer, too much to ask for though, surely?!

Edited February 12, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Alex]

Warmest PDO value since May 2010.

Weakest -QBO value since November 2011.

So looks like a similar scenairo to spring/early summer 2010 on this basis?

I would like another repeat of Apr-Jul 10 But with a hot August rather than the drab we had at the end of summer 2010!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The current weather pattern is reminding me a bit of March 1996 with the Scandinavian high feeding in stratocumulus off the North Sea. However, next week may be sunnier for the majority as high pressure will be centred to the east rather than north-east of Britain.

High pressure spells during the last six Marches have generally seen the high predominate in places that are favourable to bring warmth and sunshine to much of the British Isles. Early March 2010 was an exception in the sense that it was dry and sunny but fairly cold, but persistently-cloudy highs have been relatively rare in recent Marches. The aforementioned March of 1996 showed us the other side of the coin, with an extensive high pressure zone to the north feeding in dry cloudy weather from the SE and the odd bit of drizzle near the east coast:

http://www.wetterzen...00119960319.gif

I remember Mushymanrob making references to April 1974 in the past, which was another cold grey anticyclonic month in eastern and southern Britain (albeit sunny in the NW).

However, an easterly sourced from a fair way north is still fully capable of bringing sunshine and snow showers as we head through spring, such as this one for north-eastern Britain:

http://www.wetterzen...00120010318.gif

The March 2001 pattern has cropped up as a projection for March 2013 on a few long-range runs recently. I remember that in Tyneside on the 18th March 2001, the convection was pretty potent that day- as well as numerous snow showers there was one shower mid-afternoon which produced some quite large hailstones.

But we could of course continue the recent trend and have an anticyclonic March with HP mostly to the S and E of the British Isles. It's hard to say at this range.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers
Paragraph about march 2010 was in wrong place

[Summer Sun]

Warmest PDO value since May 2010.

Weakest -QBO value since November 2011.

So what does that mean weather wise for us?

[Summer Sun]

The met office probability maps for February have been updated this period covers March to May inclusive

850hpa temperature

Precipitation

[Don]

The met office probability maps for February have been updated this period covers March to May inclusive

850hpa temperature

Precipitation

Not much chance of a warm Spring going by those charts. However, obviously they need to be taken with a pinch of salt. I'm sure most would be happy with a coldish Spring it it meant a warm and dry Summer to follow though.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Don

[Guest pjl20101]

The met office seem to have turned from optimists to pessimists now. They used to be pro warming and now they seem anti warming now. I am so flummoxed with what we are most likely to get for spring and summer but I have to say the CFSV2 is the best service for forecasting ATM. Think the met office computer may have a virus with it.

[summer blizzard]

So looks like a similar scenairo to spring/early summer 2010 on this basis?

I would like another repeat of Apr-Jul 10 But with a hot August rather than the drab we had at the end of summer 2010!

So what does that mean weather wise for us?

They were both dry though Autumn 2011 and Spring 2010 weren't massively similar in temperature.

If you know the link to that site where you put the years in and produce monthly maps (GP and the like use it all the time, noaa or cpc or something) then i can plot it.

[Summer Sun]

The met office probability maps are highly experimental as far as I know. CFSV2 proving quite good atm here's what it shows for spring

March average temperatures after what could be a cold start

April warmer than average

May average for all but Scotland and Ireland (all of) who are above normal

The 3 monthly map shows an average spring temperature wise

Edited February 12, 2013 by reef
Quoted post removed

[Frozen Britain]

April 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 were all characterised by low angular momentum. April 2012 was dismal because angular momentum was very high. Hopefully, angular momentum will be low this year. To get a good summer, we need high angular momentum (El Nino base state). It would be a shame if spring was characterised by high angular momentum, as this would spoil both spring and summer, because, as we all know, it is very difficult to get good summer weather in this country.

[keithlucky]

Spring will be delayed the solar activity is so low in cycle 24 it"s about to drop off the cliff!!

Edited February 13, 2013 by keithlucky

[Alex]

Spring will be delayed the solar activity is so low in cycle 24 it"s about to drop off the cliff!!

Could you please post the link for this site, looks useful and does it have any forecasts?

[ZONE 51]

I would like to get my thoughts in early on spring before my LRF late Feb.

March-

I would like March to be cold crisp and with snow showers at times from the NE/E, March is a month when we see a higher chance of high pressure, depending on placement this could mean cold/warm, at this point i see not much evidence of an early warm spell, i am expecting a cold and wintry month with mild days at times, a quieter more settled month in terms of Atlantic activity, we can of course receive Atlantic storms, it is a month which has recorded some potent wind storms even in the the south. I'm starting to get signals of a cold northeasterly and easterly flow being frequent, but high pressure with calm frosty weather at times, i see this affecting the east/south mostly, with Atlantic weather affecting northwest mostly.

April-

This is as far as i go at this point and not more than early month, small signals of an early warm spell after a wintry start.

ESS

Edited February 15, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[summer blizzard]

QBO (Neutral-Negative)

2004

1997

1990

MEI (Neutral-Positive - no change)

2007

2005

2004

1994

1993

1991

1990

1979

1978

1977

1970

1969

1964

1959

1952

PDO (Neutral-Negative)

1999

1980

1967

1963

GLAMM (Neutral-Positive)

1986

1960

December-January

2004

1990

Not too bad.

[Alex]

QBO (Neutral-Negative)

2004

1997

1990

MEI (Neutral-Positive - no change)

2007

2005

2004

1994

1993

1991

1990

1979

1978

1977

1970

1969

1964

1959

1952

PDO (Neutral-Negative)

1999

1980

1967

1963

GLAMM (Neutral-Positive)

1986

1960

December-January

2004

1990

Not too bad.

Thanks and interesting SB, 1990 comes alot there and that had a very decent summer, do you know what the PDO level was in early 1990? So we could compare?

[summer blizzard]

Thanks and interesting SB, 1990 comes alot there and that had a very decent summer, do you know what the PDO level was in early 1990? So we could compare?

In terms of the raw number 1990 and 2004 are both close to the December-January values observed now and both saw a neutral-positive/weak El Nino and neutral-positive PDO develop. They were rejected from the PDO analogue list because 2004 was already positive and 1990 was trending negative rather than trending positive like now.

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec has updated for February

Precipitation is shown to be below normal for spring (March 1st to May 31st)

Temperatures are shown to be above normal

Early indications for summer suggest a drier than average one

With temperatures around about average give or take a bit

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The spring temperature map looks pretty close to normal over the UK as well, as far as I can see. Certainly drier than normal over both seasons though.

It will probably change a fair bit on the next few updates though.

[Costa Del Fal]

Crystal clear blue skies and sunny days like today have epitomised why I love Spring and Summer. Cant wait now!

[Summer Sun]

Crystal clear blue skies and sunny days like today have epitomised why I love Spring and Summer. Cant wait now!

Been the same up here in Darlington was a lovely afternoon was out in the garden and I had to take my jumper off

[Guest pjl20101]

I would take a 2004 or 1990 spring as that would be certainly very plausable indeed. The only thing now that is needed is the AO index and that would complete the jigsaw. Gonna try to be more relevant now gang and concentrate on the topic.