Spring Weather Chat

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't see evidence of a particularly warm April on that forecast- the first two-thirds are forecast to be anticyclonic with close to average temperatures and when it does warm up it turns wetter.

If that forecast turned out accurate, March would probably be one of the sunniest and driest on record, and May over central and southern Britain would probably be one of the dullest and wettest- that pattern is scarily reminiscent of the early to middle part of last year's summer. I wouldn't place much confidence on that forecast though- the models are currently showing a lot of uncertainty for early March and if the overall atmospheric signals pan out differently to expected during early to mid-March there's a chance of it de-railing the rest of the forecast.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

Spring is without question the season that can produce extremes in a short space of time. Spring 1999 is the 6th warmest spring on record for the CET and yet it still managed to conjure up notable April snowfalls

[Guest pjl20101]

Think the output is pretty subject to change and the analogues like summer blizzard said about are a better indicator of how roughly things pan out. I can see this march performing like 2004 to be honest as that was a very changeable month with warm and cold more or less alternating. That would do me just fine.

[hillbilly]

march has got to be the most changeable month of the year with coldest day of year achieved great snowfall ,temps below -20 possible yet also capable of glorious weather as last year and capable of +25deg and in some parts the hottest day of the year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[March Blizzard]

march has got to be the most changeable month of the year with coldest day of year achieved great snowfall ,temps below -20 possible yet also capable of glorious weather as last year and capable of +25deg and in some parts the hottest day of the year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It often has the largest diurnal ranges of the year, temperatures can rise fairly high in the sunshine but drop like a stone after sunset.

It also has the largest temperature range of any calender month of the year. A record low of -22.8C and record high of 25.6C gives a range of 48.4C.

Large diurnal ranges are why I like February and March, and to a lesser extent April and May.

[summer blizzard]

March-April 2011 was exceptional dry, only 33.9mm both months combined. Also mid March to early May 2007 was about 20mm for that period.

I meant for Feb only.

[SnowObsessor90]

Much like Autumn Spring is a season where I don't really have any strong weather preferences although a good few days of sunshine and warmth would be nice, I just hope that whatever we get end up getting doesn't end having too much of a knock on the following season ala last year where we had quite a fair bit of the mild/warm settled type weather early on followed by an April which pretty much set tone for the months to come bar a few blips here and there.

Edited February 25, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Frank Trough]

hmm doesn't really look great that so hope the bit about May is wrong. March is too early to bother me too much - it really is April onwards it starts to matter.

Anyway we shall see and if it fixes itself for June I'd be happy with that!

i really hope they haven't got may anywhere near correct. Another potentially nice, outdoor month written off by viscious southerly tracking lows with cold, wet awfulness and its associated flooding issues. Surely we took enough blows like that last summer, didn't we?!

I'm probably completely wrong, but i don't remember reading any spring/summer forecasts for last year that mentioned the summer would be basically, a write off? most i read seemed quite promising.

[Summer Sun]

Does anyone know if the spring forecast from netweather will be released this week?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So when does the model forecast thread start looking for warm and sunny weather in FI rather than cold and snow?

[Mark Neal.]

So when does the model forecast thread start looking for warm and sunny weather in FI rather than cold and snow?

For me its now

Just 3 days away from the start of the ballooning season, can't wait to get started again, looking like a few flyable slots over the weekend, with some sunshine, temperatures recovering and light winds, very spring-like!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I agree. From early November I have been on the hunt for snow. But now, having enjoyed the snowiest winter in Coventry since 1991, I need some warmth. March cannot come quick enough. There must be a lot of people on here feeling the same way?

[Frank Trough]

For me its now

Just 3 days away from the start of the ballooning season, can't wait to get started again, looking like a few flyable slots over the weekend, with some sunshine, temperatures recovering and light winds, very spring-like!

me too. Bring on spring now - it takes something special even in the depths of winter for anything meaningful on the south coast so once spring comes have had enough. Cold rain doesn't do it for me.

This is the weirdest time on the model thread i think - the desperate search for cold is incredible. CFS charts being trawled out now...mind you, if you read it last night and not looked at any charts you would have confidently assumed there was absolutely no chance of anything other than a cold march. That may still be the case in the long run but it's undeniable now that at least for the south things are trending milder as we enter the start of spring. It wasn't that long ago that our high was supposed to drift northwest into greenland opening the artctic floodgates to welcome spring....now that high is slipping southeast into Europe.

As has been pointed out it is a bit of a double edged sword because if that milder pattern establishes it will get wetter with time which isn't really that great.

I would happily take a "typical" march - a few cold shots and some spring like days would do me. Last year it was better for outdoor stuff than most of April, May, June and a lot of July.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the meantime, the current weather over much of England (dry, cloudy and cold) is satisfying very few of us- no warmth, no sunshine, no snow, nothing dramatic, no good for outdoor activities. It does look probable that the sunny skies over Scotland will extend south over the next couple of days though.

[Weather-history]

Look how warm it can get in the Med and SE Europe if the wind is in the right direction during March

32C at Palermo, 28C at Belgrade, 27C at Sofia on the 26th March 2001

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Let's not forget, we had the warmest ever March days recorded last year in parts of Scotland on 3 successive days! (Would love to see the FI showing that soon)

But then 2 weeks later I headed for a wedding in Inverness and had to get my car dug out of a foot of snow to get off my hillside accommodation!

Edited February 26, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Aaron]

So when does the model forecast thread start looking for warm and sunny weather in FI rather than cold and snow?

When the chance of any snow and cold, realistically, goes out of the window? It depends on where you live - people in Eastbourne can say goodbye to winter because any snowfall into March and April is unlikely, but up here I can say with confidence that getting snow in March and April is certainly not unusual and is part of any typical spring, just as much as warm weather - probably more so actually.

By late April, any talk of snow is a tad silly but considering significant snow has fallen as late as June, who knows?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

When the chance of any snow and cold, realistically, goes out of the window? It depends on where you live - people in Eastbourne can say goodbye to winter because any snowfall into March and April is unlikely, but up here I can say with confidence that getting snow in March and April is certainly not unusual and is part of any typical spring, just as much as warm weather - probably more so actually.

By late April, any talk of snow is a tad silly but considering significant snow has fallen as late as June, who knows?

So there must be a crossover period when warmies start taking over the thread, I guess sometime in the next 3 weeks? And some are looking for Spring and others for an extension of winter? Edited February 26, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Aaron]

I don't think there are ever 'warmies', but convection lovers. Outside of winter, convection lovers definitely take over and everyone is buzzing off thunderstorms. There are people who crave high pressure and constant dryness, as well as never-ending warmth, but I think snow and thunderstorms definitely rule the roost on this forum at different times of the year, and just like you get people who solely post in winter for snow, you get the same in summer where people only post because they prefer thunderstorms.

I also think 'coldie' is an inappropriate term - most people are searching for snow, and as a direct consequence, cold weather.

Edited February 26, 2013 by Aaron

[IanR]

So there must be a crossover period when warmies start taking over the thread, I guess sometime in the next 3 weeks? And some are looking for Spring and others for an extension of winter?

And thunderstormies

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks for that Aaron. I remember at the back end of September last year a few members said they would be 'retiring' until the spring! Final question, what do winter weather model followers do in the summer when the hunt for snow ends? Incidentally the year I was born it snowed on June 2 in the UK (1975).

Do we have records of the best years for thunderstorms in the UK the same way we have epic years for snow and cold? I guess having a warm summer helps which hasn't been evident in recent years!

Edited February 26, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Bottesford]

Many folks are seasonal on here with a large number only around from late autumn to the end of winter. I'm around all year (although admittedly showing much much less interest in winter) but nothing like some hot weather charts to spark my interest!

I'm sure the current weather is bringing everyone down and igniting the interest in spring with its sunshine & improvement in these bloomin' awful low temperatures and raw wind. Sadly this time of year is the most common time of year for easterlies and their cloud - lets hope the month of it we've had so far this year will use up the quota!

[Summer Sun]

WSI have issued there spring forecast

WSI: Coldest Air to Retreat to Northeastern Europe and Northwestern Russia in March

Below-Normal Temperatures More Likely Across Western/Southern Europe in April and May

Andover, Mass. (February 26, 2013) — Weather Services International (WSI) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (March-May) to average slightly higher than normal in most regions, although expect significant intra-seasonal variability is expected.

“The winter of 2012-13 has been quite cold across northern Europe, while the southern regions have been milder and quite wet, which is fairly typical with the numerous atmospheric blocking episodes that have occurred. Going forward, all of the objective evidence suggests that the coldest March weather, relative to normal, will occur in northeastern Europe and western Russia, with milder southwesterly flow becoming established across much of Western Europe,†said WSI chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “For April and May, the objective guidance suggests that the blocking will finally relax, with milder temperatures developing across northern Europe and any below-normal temperatures confined to western and southern sections.â€

In March, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region* – Colder than normal Finland, warmer than normal elsewhere

UK* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In April, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In May, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal

http://www.wsi.com/7f0a796d-e699-48d6-b4a9-d82e238a1730/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[summer blizzard]

I don't think there are ever 'warmies', but convection lovers. Outside of winter, convection lovers definitely take over and everyone is buzzing off thunderstorms. There are people who crave high pressure and constant dryness, as well as never-ending warmth, but I think snow and thunderstorms definitely rule the roost on this forum at different times of the year, and just like you get people who solely post in winter for snow, you get the same in summer where people only post because they prefer thunderstorms.

I also think 'coldie' is an inappropriate term - most people are searching for snow, and as a direct consequence, cold weather.

I'd agree with that.

From November-February i'm basically a 63 repeat person.

The rest of yearly i basically want a high sat over the UK.

[Bottesford]

I'd agree with that.

From November-February i'm basically a 63 repeat person.

The rest of yearly i basically want a high sat over the UK.

I'm like the inverse - May-September I want a 1976/1995 repeat and the rest of the year can do whatever*.

*Strictly not true but - ample sunshine helps loads! Oh and a bit of snow... obviously.