South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[TwisterGirl81]

well not if a tree lands on his van or he gets stuck in floods. He has no choice but to be out there in it as he is contracted to make the delivery.

I could be hit by a bus tomorrow, I just make precautions to make sure I don't....

Maybe you could give him a pre warning that Friday could be extremely dangerous and to make sure he keeps to major roads and tries to avoid shortcuts....

We can wish it stays safe though

[Coast]

Slight dropping of top gusts and more confined to the middle of The Channel on the 12z GFS run just out:

It quietens off a tad then:

Edited January 29, 2013 by Coast

[gottolovethisweather]

MOVING ON NOW PLEASE.

I see AWD is posting, I'll be awaiting with bated breathe as to his latest thoughts.

Perhaps I should go have a look at the latest GFS offerings myself.

Edited January 29, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Briefly, the GFS continues to show a troublesome storm developing over our part of the world on Friday with heavy rain;

And strong winds (not as strong as the 06z though);

The UKMO does develop something now on its 12z run, but not quite as deep as other models yet. The UKMO sends the worse of the winds into France;

But still giving us a massive soaking;

Edited January 29, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Slight dropping of top gusts and more confined to the middle of The Channel on the 12z GFS run just out:

It quietens off a tad then:

Well if that came off, I would most probably simply experience a typically slightly blowy day. All from a IMBY perspective but the weather can NEVER please one and all at the same time. However, mother nature does appear to be throwing a few tantrums of late.

[Coast]

Briefly, the GFS continues to show a troublesome storm developing over our part of the world on Friday with heavy rain;

And strong winds (not as strong as the 06z though);

The UKMO does develop something now on its 12z run, but not quite as deep as other models yet. The UKMO sends the worse of the winds into France;

If the trend continues then France could cop the lot, but this still has a way to go yet and we all know about models even at this range. When the hi-res stuff. 48 hours+ is out around Thursday we will have a bit more knowledge

[TwisterGirl81]

If the trend continues then France could cop the lot, but this still has a way to go yet and we all know about models even at this range. When the hi-res stuff. 48 hours+ is out around Thursday we will have a bit more knowledge

I hope not! Bloody french! lol

[ARTDEMOLE]

13ºC. SSW Breeze 33km/h. Cloudy with rain at times...

[AWD]

You can see here how the GFS does develop the low. We have high Theta altitude air clashing with colder air coming down from the north, fuelling the depression;

This creates a unstable atmosphere, and with a strong Jet Streak over the UK, its only going one way;

The thermal gradient differential creates a depression that is allowed to develop quickly. You will see above a slight gap in the Jet Stream, this is where the depression forms as the two air masses clash. Where it tracks will ultimately depend on the kink in the Jet to the west of the UK.

Edited January 29, 2013 by AWD

[Coast]

Sustained winds are still very high, just a bit further South in this latest run (and will change I'm sure):

Than later that evening the direction changes and it bangs into the coastal areas:

[AWD]

Not really the rainfall accumulations we want to see over the next 96 hours;

[Andy Bown]

Are you moving away from the Southwest?

No staying in Warminster. Not looking forward to the lack of internet for a week or so, it's amazing in this day and age of

technology that a simple switch cannot happen overnight!

[sherrie]

If the trend continues then France could cop the lot, but this still has a way to go yet and we all know about models even at this range. When the hi-res stuff. 48 hours+ is out around Thursday we will have a bit more knowledge

Lol I feel guilty now because thats what I said I hoped would happen!

[AWD]

Some GEFS Perbs regarding Friday;

Equally, there are others that show nothing at all so questions rather than answers still I think. Lets see if the ECM can shed some light.

[Coast]

Lol I feel guilty now because thats what I said I hoped would happen!

No worries! I think a lot of people want the storm, but without any damage or disruption.

UKMO just coming into the start of Friday and showing nothing significant at that time. I'll keep an eye on these through tomorrow:

Edited January 29, 2013 by Coast

[gottolovethisweather]

Lol I feel guilty now because thats what I said I hoped would happen!

Ah, but doesn't mean it will though. I would still stay tuned to this thread and the media forecasts for the time being.

If your husband can avoid the prone areas then he should at least try to. Same goes for anybody else for that matter, at least us weather bods will already be warning others of the possibilities of a potentially dangerous development. One part of me is looking forward to the event whilst hoping everybody stays safe of course and yet another part of me has my eyes firmly set on the potential on the week thereafter, which is even more uncertain tbf.

Edited January 29, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Sainsbo]

Looks like it will be very windy on Friday if this comes off.

[sherrie]

I will definitley be around on here, it is strange how you can get really excited about these severe weather events and at the same time feel slightly worried, I guess thats why we are here on this forum, weather when it wants to be is the biggest thrill ever

[Blizzardof82]

Current temp 13.2c wind WNW humidity 91%

[dec10snow]

I will definitley be around on here, it is strange how you can get really excited about these severe weather events and at the same time feel slightly worried, I guess thats why we are here on this forum, weather when it wants to be is the biggest thrill ever

I agree. I love a good storm, with heavy rain and strong winds... But we really don't need the rain... At all!

And thanks for all the analysis throughout today from those who have, very much appreciated

Edited January 29, 2013 by dec10snow

[cerneman]

Yucky day,,,If temps been slightly higher, would been like typical 2012 summer's day here

[cornish snow]

Hot news,iv'e spotted a trend in the weather,ian ferguson presenting on spotlight!

Question is, will the trend continue??

[mbrothers]

Hot news,iv'e spotted a trend in the weather,ian ferguson presenting on spotlight!

Question is, will the trend continue??

yes he goes into much more detail than alan partridge/david braine.

[AWD]

Like the GFS, the ECM 12z Det shows a developing depression on Friday, bringing very windy;

And more notably, some very wet weather;

Although not quite as severe as this mornings runs, with the modelled rainfall totals, the winds shown above would still cause problems as the ground is sodden wet and with further rainfall, the uprooting of trees and weak structures will still be possible if the EC verifies.

Again, after the depression slides SE, colder air is introduced bringing the possibility of a brief bit of wintriness in any showers on Saturday;

Edited January 29, 2013 by AWD

[Sainsbo]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=382725538489262&set=vb.102814153147070&type=2&theater <- Ians forecast.

Still 12.8C here, no rain as of yet.