South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Nights King]

That's because we are not the SE or London!

We wurzels don't matter!

They have a tough job when it comes to warnings and of course they can sometimes get them wrong but they have to look at the general impact it will have to infrustructure and people and lets face it a few floods in non populated areas of farmland is going to have far less impact unless your a duck. Same again goes for snow....If it is only hills forecast to get 2/3 inches of snow then it gets mentioned but hardly ever gets a warning however if bristol is forecast 1-2 inches of snow it gets an amber because it has greater impact.

[Kiwi]

Blowing a filly out there right now.

Is this some strange west country turn of phrase?

[AWD]

Is this some strange west country turn of phrase?

Probably best google it rather than I say on here as it would probably develop into a rather long off topic discussion. :p

GFS is consistent in developing a channel low at the end of the week. Not a true channel low in that it won't be cold enough for snowfall for the most part, but it could provide a very stormy period for us down here.

Think twice as worse as what we currently have re wind & rain.

Edited January 28, 2013 by AWD

[AWD]

Imagine if the air was colder, the uppers were lower etc;

The elusive "channel low"!

[AWD]

Latest on the current flood warnings around the South West;

http://t.co/I4sC4w8D

[A.J]

Imagine if the air was colder, the uppers were lower etc;

The elusive "channel low"!

I'll be keeping my eye on that...uppers and thicknesses don't look too bad....dewpoints/wet bulb temps are the main issue for this scenario IMO .....certainly one to watch as the models evolve this week

[AWD]

I'll be keeping my eye on that...uppers and thicknesses don't look too bad....dewpoints/wet bulb temps are the main issue for this scenario IMO .....certainly one to watch as the models evolve this week

Won't be worth looking into detail until much nearer the time. UKMO for example barely has a feature.

If we has air temperatures like last week however, we could be looking at something rather mouth watering. As it stands at the moment, its just something to watch out for, more especially for flood prone areas of the SW.

Interesting though nevertheless. Similar to October if I remember correctly, where back edge snowfall aided by evaporative cooling occurred for some areas.

[Polar Bear]

It does seem like there's been quite a change on the charts in the last 18 hours. The winds across the Southern part of Ireland are quite vicious at the moment and that falls quite closely inline with the last theta-e chart.

The progging for around 18:00 looks horrendous later, especially if they're already getting 70mph gusts of wind now ..

Very interesting. Must admit I wasnt really expecting the gusts we are getting in Newbury. Now I know the coast was predicted to experience some gusty weather but being so far inland has surprised me a little. Most of the sea areas are all reporting imminent gales up to or continuing Force 9 ..Those to the west of Ireland (shannon, rockall) "Southwesterly storm force 10 continuing".. Now I know it is in the sea and not inland as many will remind me, but that is fair indicator of the strength of the low at mo IMO! Plus Cambernet which is in Chichester harbour and which I know well from sailing days when I was little is reporting gusts of F8. This harbour is quite sheltered and F8 gusts are something to note and heed....

[gottolovethisweather]

Very interesting. Must admit I wasnt really expecting the gusts we are getting in Newbury. Now I know the coast was predicted to experience some gusty weather but being so far inland has surprised me a little. Most of the sea areas are all reporting imminent gales up to or continuing Force 9 ..Those to the west of Ireland (shannon, rockall) "Southwesterly storm force 10 continuing".. Now I know it is in the sea and not inland as many will remind me, but that is fair indicator of the strength of the low at mo IMO! Plus Cambernet which is in Chichester harbour and which I know well from sailing days when I was little is reporting gusts of F8. This harbour is quite sheltered and F8 gusts are something to note and heed....

Yes PB, tis rather blustery in Newbury, so far the highest gust I've recorded being 29mph @ 16:35. I am particularly sheltered from the south where I am but you can safely add another ten mph to my top gusts to get an idea of what it is like out there. Currently AT 8.3c, DP 7.8c and a 999.9mb rapidly falling barometer. I bet it sure is windy up at them there hills.

Liking the GFS 12z trend from the last few days and I concur with one or two other thoughts in here that Friday may become a rather interesting event to say the least. Many a day after the next couple or so look like being progressively cooler as we head into February, which again is a consistent trend coming from the various computer models. Warm tomorrow, a few wetter and windy spells in between and then more of a Northerly flow and potentially a fair bit drier bar some wintry showers, as we enter into what is currently FI timeframe.

AWDs post from the MOD thread sums things up rather nicely.

http://forum.netweat...3/#entry2576941

Edited January 28, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Yikes.

Some peak gusts courtesy of Weather online.

Cairnwell (933 m) 100 mph Cairngorm Mtns (1245 m) 99 mph Aonach Mòr (1130 m) 91 mph Capel Curig (215 m) 85 mph Aberdaron (94 m) 78 mph Great Dun Fell (847 m) 74 mph Mumbles (32 m) 66 mph Valley (10 m) 65 mph Pembrey Burrows (6 m) 63 mph IoM / Ronaldsway AP (16 m) 62 mph Glenanne (160 m) 62 mph Loftus Samos (159 m) 61 mph Aberporth (134 m) 61 mph Glen Ogle (564 m) 61 mph Lake Vyrnwy (359 m) 61 mph Leeds Bradford Intl. Airport (207 m) 61 mph Scilly St Mary (30 m) 60 mph Tiree Island (12 m) 60 mph Raf Mona (62 m) 60 mph

Edited January 28, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

I'm not defending or supporting the Met O in this particular instance (and you know the local meteorology better than me, although I know the area well) but I have had similar levels of rain over that period without warnings too. I just wonder if it should be a flood warning that we are looking for first, then maybe a weather alert?

As for the wind and gusts later - it seems the area affected has changed a bit this morning and maybe they are being ultra-cautious?

Have to say I am leaning towards the personal belief that the MetOffice warnings seem to be a little insufficient.. The current winds particularly. A yellow for the southern coastal areas maybe appropriate? There is an awful lot of red arrows on the wind map!!

Edited January 28, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Andy Bown]

If there is anything positive about today it's that the rain/showers are moving through very quickly due to the rapid jet stream.

Tomorrow morning's Warm Front seems set to lift Northwards rapidly too leaving u in a broad warm sector fo most of the day, I

wonder whether it will be a drizzly/bright spells warm sector or one with heavy showers?

Looking extremely closely at Friday, we're moving house! Could seriously do with the LOW diving even further South so that this

area is in a cold showery set up raher than persistent heavy rain!!!

[chris55]

So windy here today, the Atlantic is back in full force that's for sure!!

Looking further ahead, and as AWD points out the feature for the end of the week could be a nasty little winter storm. Although the track and intensity is open to much doubt. Last night saw it winding up in the Channel, today's 12z has it further south and less intense,

Beyond this there are signals of a cool down, with a ridging Azores high attempting to move north, potentially bringing in a much colder flow from the north or east. Background signals are very positive but we shall just have to wait and see if we can get another shot of proper cold in the next few weeks.

Edited January 28, 2013 by chris55

[Polar Bear]

Yikes.

Some peak gusts courtesy of Weather online.

Cairnwell (933 m) 100 mph Cairngorm Mtns (1245 m) 99 mph Aonach Mòr (1130 m) 91 mph Capel Curig (215 m) 85 mph Aberdaron (94 m) 78 mph Great Dun Fell (847 m) 74 mph Mumbles (32 m) 66 mph Valley (10 m) 65 mph Pembrey Burrows (6 m) 63 mph IoM / Ronaldsway AP (16 m) 62 mph Glenanne (160 m) 62 mph Loftus Samos (159 m) 61 mph Aberporth (134 m) 61 mph Glen Ogle (564 m) 61 mph Lake Vyrnwy (359 m) 61 mph Leeds Bradford Intl. Airport (207 m) 61 mph Scilly St Mary (30 m) 60 mph Tiree Island (12 m) 60 mph Raf Mona (62 m) 60 mph

Snap ..we both were looking at the same time... hence my screen shot of the wind map..alot of red arrows there GTLTW..and it seems to be gusting more. Like you this flat tends to be sheltered and I did hear it whistling through. 44mph and 46 mph at Brize and Lineham ...ooh . Pleased I worked from home today now!

[Wilxy]

Hello All.

Cloudy and Windy, also feeling very mild. 10°C

[gottolovethisweather]

Check out the speed of these incoming systems on this satellite animation.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

Pay special attention to the latter frames in the animation, that NH Jetstream must be hurtling through over our heads.

Can't wait to the split flow occurs as expected, in a couple of days time, then this should lead to an entirely different pattern once again.

Hello All.

Cloudy and Windy, also feeling very mild. 10°C

Even milder tomorrow and just the same overnight. I saw expectations of 13c or even 14c forecast but we shall see.

Edited January 28, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Blizzardof82]

Weather station is frustrating me at present as it is not picking up wind speeds, I guess that is because of position i.e. too close to neighbours tree. Current temp 9.6c with humidity 99% dry and windy.

[Dorsetbred]

Imagine if the air was colder, the uppers were lower etc;

The elusive "channel low"!

Flippin' typically always arrives when things warm up, I guess that's the nature of the beast

[Bristawl Si]

Imagine if the air was colder, the uppers were lower etc;

The elusive "channel low"!

That would be typical if one turns up on 2nd February and it aint cold enough to produce snow!

Frustrating enough if it's only early November but 2nd February one would expect a snow event!

[Dorsetbred]

If there is anything positive about today it's that the rain/showers are moving through very quickly due to the rapid jet stream.

Tomorrow morning's Warm Front seems set to lift Northwards rapidly too leaving u in a broad warm sector fo most of the day, I

wonder whether it will be a drizzly/bright spells warm sector or one with heavy showers?

Looking extremely closely at Friday, we're moving house! Could seriously do with the LOW diving even further South so that this

area is in a cold showery set up raher than persistent heavy rain!!!

We moved the morning of the "Great Hurricane" that wasn't....... always an event to remember leaving the damage behind, to walk into more damage on the next place. Oh well

Snap ..we both were looking at the same time... hence my screen shot of the wind map..alot of red arrows there GTLTW..and it seems to be gusting more. Like you this flat tends to be sheltered and I did hear it whistling through. 44mph and 46 mph at Brize and Lineham ...ooh . Pleased I worked from home today now!

Currently down here in the harbour

Wind constant 35mph

Gust 55.2mph

Edited January 28, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[ARTDEMOLE]

Rain..9.2ºC. SSW Wind 10 mph.Gusting to 20 mph...

[Mapantz]

I'm still very surprised at no warnings for winds here in England, the strength of those winds over the mainland is quite impressive.

My retained fire-fighter mate has just been called out to a fallen tree incident, i'm sure there's likely to be many of those incidents over the next few hours.

[A.J]

yes, very gusty out there generally, although just seems to be dropping back a tad now.............

[AWD]

ECM also shows the "channel low" on Friday;

Perhaps a more potent track than the GFS so definetly one to watch develop over the next couple of days. Could bring a real winter mix of heavy rain, strong winds and perhaps back edge snowfall.

[AWD]

Also, after tomorrow's frontal rainfall, there is another possibility of a repeat of yesterday, with convective cells forming over Wales/Bristol Channel and these could again prove thundery;