South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Coast]

I was wandering what the bottom graph means?

It's for Storm Relaitive Helicity which is a measure of cyclonic updraft rotation in right moving supercells. It can be one of the things we need for thunderstorms and possibly a tornado

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/ConvectiveWeatherMaps.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrodynamical_helicity

[jtay]

I was wandering what the bottom graph means?

It means if you live near the Solent, hold on to your hat.

[Wilxy]

Well its Cloudy and dull with occasional rain, but its very mild, 13.0°C, if it was sunny that would feel like spring.

[Andy Bown]

Well its Cloudy and dull with occasional rain, but its very mild, 13.0°C, if it was sunny that would feel like spring.

If it was sunny in this warm sector 15c would be likely!

[Dorsetbred]

Friday looks to be a blast, literally. Sat up on top of the 'hill' in Bournemouth it was blowing like a hoolie yesterday, friday looks far more impressive, and could cause some damage, we have had windows lost in very high winds.

We shall see... aint nothing between us and the northern coast of France, from our vantage point.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, Friday into Saturday is looking very severe here in west Cornwall. Look forward to what it brings.

[kaz]

It looks and feels just like summer out there. temps are nearly the same as they were in August. Windy+Rain+ flooding yup a typical summers day here ...

Not looking great for Friday the MO have a warning out for rain but reading it they are hinting at the possibility for strong winds to develop. One to watch me thinks.

kaz x

[Dorsetbred]

Met Office fax charts currently don't show the friday channel chaser as anywhere near as deep as other forecasts

Edited January 29, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Wilxy]

If it was sunny in this warm sector 15c would be likely!

Yep if only, still dull cloudy and feeling damp here.

[Beast of Plympton]

Horrible, damp and mild here today. Although looking at Met Office and BBC we have snow forecast on saturday. Albeit only for a couple of hours but would still be nice to see.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Iceberg]

Been busy but have had an eye on Friday. It can't be stressed how important it is to watch out for Friday afternoon, evening.

Models don't have a good grasp on it, but with the pronounced dry slot and sting jet charecteristics all point towards the possibility, low ATM that something really dangerous might occur.

Top end of the spectrum allows for gusts over 100mph if winds come to the surface in the developmental low, with sustained winds of 60-70mph in exposed areas with very wet ground we could have problems.

Too early to say where will be worst effected but I would lean towards the south coast Weymouth iow etc rather than the Bristol Channel areas.

Keep an eye out and watch the meto high res.

winds and nasty low guaranteed but the question is how Nasty....

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

OMG the latest charts posted by AWD above show Friday's LOW further North than yesterday, so much for my hopes of it

diving South into France!

Moving house in torrential rain, gales and possible back edge wintryness, damn!

Are you moving away from the Southwest?

[TwisterGirl81]

Been busy but have had an eye on Friday. It can't be stressed how important it is to watch out for Friday afternoon, evening.

Models don't have a good grasp on it, but with the pronounced dry slot and sting jet charecteristics all point towards the possibility, low ATM that something really dangerous might occur.

Top end of the spectrum allows for gusts over 100mph if winds come to the surface in the developmental low, with sustained winds of 60-70mph in exposed areas with very wet ground we could have problems.

Too early to say where will be worst effected but I would lean towards the south coast Weymouth iow etc rather than the Bristol Channel areas.

Keep an eye out and watch the meto high res.

winds and nasty low guaranteed but the question is how Nasty....

That sounds brutal! Storm of the decade in the south for sure if your discription is accurate....I hope we see some interesting conditions in the part of Devon I live in?! If it misses us like all the settling major snow did on ALL occassions I will be the one throwing a hoolie.

[Sainsbo]

Could be an interesting one for sure, any with the saturation of the ground currently, trees will be more susceptible to uprooting in high winds, not to mention that rivers can't take much more. I'm not saying I wouldn't look forward to this if it payed off, I'm just hoping that everyone stays safe.

13.2C here currently. I'd almost forgotten what it feels like to go outside in nothing but a T-Shirt!

Edited January 29, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Jane Louise]

The Wind is terrible out there. I lost my greenhouse across the field last night It did calm down this morning but it's now started again .Certainly not looking forward to Friday to say the least.

[Coast]

Certainly not looking forward to Friday to say the least.

Yep, it is a double edged sword Jane. Like you, I love the storms but this could be up to 70 - 80 mph on the South coast if it pans out as currently modelled and that isn't good at any time, let alone with all the soil soaked as it is.

[A.J]

Just went out for a 'bracing' walk.....I started off in Wiltshire and got blown into Berkshire!

[TwisterGirl81]

Of course no one wants to see anyone get hurt and I hope they don't which is why early warnings need to be put out there....I've told a couple people already, I don't mind getting it wrong if it means there's a possibility it happens and people will have more time to prepare.

I am surprised the intensity of this is not being picked up really by any of the weather forecasting websites like BBC and MetOffice?! hmmmmmm

[Coast]

I am surprised the intensity of this is not being picked up really by any of the weather forecasting websites like BBC and MetOffice?! hmmmmmm

I guess they will be studying more intently than we are, but as a public service - potentially with lives at stake, this will go down to the wire so they can make as accurate a call as they can.

They have given an early warning this morning:

XC Weather currently going with:

Edited January 29, 2013 by Coast

[Iceberg]

Major difference between this low and the later Atlantic systems is that its devlopmental. The temp gradient and jet exit combine with a near perfect synchro on the gfs. Some sub 528 air with -4 or so 850 digging down into the nw quad with +5 850 and 550 in the se quad together with the jet exit provide true racy conditions with a 30-35 mb drop in the space of 24 hrs. I.e rather than an organised large front brings winds from the 950 later to the surface we get disorganised wind distribution but winds from 900 come down to the surface, hence surface winds of 50-60 kts are possible with higher gusts.

[gottolovethisweather]

The only downer I see for now is that there is a lack of confidence in the MetO further outlooks in the use of the word SNOW. When they start making more use of the frozen liquid wording, I will become more confident that something will be on its way. Indeed, there is an outside probability of them getting things wrong in the relative short-term as AWD and I have suggested, so watch this space!

And as if by magic, there is now some mention of the SNOW wording, okay it only refers to transient snow across the Northern hills but that is a trend I can see developing and moving South as time goes by.

[sherrie]

Friday sounds too scary for me, my brother has to drive for his job and if Friday night is as bad as some of you are saying it could be Im going to be very worried for him! so I for one hope it doesnt happen and it can go to France instead.

[TwisterGirl81]

Friday sounds too scary for me, my brother has to drive for his job and if Friday night is as bad as some of you are saying it could be Im going to be very worried for him! so I for one hope it doesnt happen and it can go to France instead.

Well the weather will do what it wants not the other way around and there's all sorts of dangers out there everyday. As long as he is a careful driver and takes notice of warnings then he will be fine.

I am hoping it doesn't rear its ugly head until Friday evening/night when most sensible people would be indoors in such extreme conditions.

[legritter]

Fridays low is still 3 days away but i must say there is the potential there for very severe conditions .it could just clip us and head south/east but at this stage it could track across wales central england and give us a very bloody nose .i think the MET OFFICE will be watching this one with caution but they should have it nailed by later tomorrow . still one awfull amount of rain to come overnight tonight and another dose before fridays fun and games so lets hope everyone is looking out for each other in flood prone places . as for cold, modells seem to be hinting but thats all it is at the moment ,but sat sun could give some surprises .iv pots in garden that have been waterlogged for last 4 months and iv seen ducks praying for the rain to stop .

[sherrie]

Well the weather will do what it wants not the other way around and there's all sorts of dangers out there everyday. As long as he is a careful driver and takes notice of warnings then he will be fine.

I am hoping it doesn't rear its ugly head until Friday evening/night when most sensible people would be indoors in such extreme conditions.

well not if a tree lands on his van or he gets stuck in floods. He has no choice but to be out there in it as he is contracted to make the delivery.

But then yes its 3 days away yet and it might just end up a bit blowy, silly to worry about something that might not happen.

Edited January 29, 2013 by sherrie