South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[George]

A very cold night, had to defrost the car at 10 to pop out!

[Blizzardof82]

Current temp -0.5c humidity 94%

[katemart]

Feeling bitter here today: -0.2C, DP -5.4C, 1024.0 mb, flat calm.

[divadee]

Good morning all. Haven't been around as started a new job and too much to learn!

What have I missed? I haven't read back at all. Are we in for some more of the white stuff??

[Blizzardof82]

Good morning all. Haven't been around as started a new job and too much to learn!

What have I missed? I haven't read back at all. Are we in for some more of the white stuff??

We could be that depends on who you want to believe, this week will be cold with strong Northerly winds and as my Dad used to say......

'When the north wind blows we shall have snows'

All to play for IMO, today probally being the warmest for the week

[divadee]

We could be that depends on who you want to believe, this week will be cold with strong Northerly winds and as my Dad used to say......

'When the north wind blows we shall have snows'

Bless our dads. My pops used to say the exact same thing. Maybe I will have to start saying it now he's no longer here! I had forgotten all about it till you said it!

Here's hoping for some favourable forecasts for us on the coast!

[Mark Parsons]

We could be that depends on who you want to believe, this week will be cold with strong Northerly winds and as my Dad used to say......

'When the north wind blows we shall have snows'

All to play for IMO, today probally being the warmest for the week

Depends where you live, in these modern winters that bit of folklore does'nt work much these days, heres hoping for some good unstable air with lots of embbeded troughs!!!

[BARRY]

From the saying

When the north wind doth blow, we shall have snow and what will cock robin do then,he will hide in the barn and keep himself warm and hide his head under his wing poor thing.

[Coast]

GFS says here it comes (for a short while) with it's latest run:

Then an ickle bit:

[Mark Parsons]

Well the emphasis on colder conditions is "snowballing" for a longish outbreak which we all know can change, but the trend is holding and improving by the run so fingers crossed! However I would like all this nonsense to be over with by the 22nd as I am away again to Iceland of all places, last month I went to Paris and almost had trouble getting to and from the airport because of a wintery outbreak, my trip to Iceland could well be threatened also, and I don't want to freeze when I am there, so I am hoping for some SW winds when we are there!!! We should'nt of chose a trip to Iceland in winter if one does not want be cold I suppose!!

[Coast]

Well the emphasis on colder conditions is "snowballing" for a longish outbreak which we all know can change, but the trend is holding and improving by the run so fingers crossed!

Current outlook is light snow, not widespread and very sporadic through next week if it gets as far as this region.

[Mark Parsons]

Current outlook is light snow, not widespread and very sporadic through next week if it gets as far as this region.

Yes, we have to rely on some troughs though don't we as ever in these set ups and as it stands ppn is not great, no troughs = little ppn for our region, we will have to see how unstable the flow is nearer the time before any of us can say for sure how much is going to fall from the sky.

[caz100]

From the saying

When the north wind doth blow, we shall have snow and what will cock robin do then,he will hide in the barn and keep himself warm and hide his head under his wing poor thing.

thanks for that old saying, brought back memories, forgot it have just wrote it down

[Coast]

Yes, we have to rely on some troughs though don't we as ever in these set ups and as it stands ppn is not great, no troughs = little ppn for our region, we will have to see how unstable the flow is nearer the time before any of us can say for sure how much is going to fall from the sky.

NMM on NW Extra only out to +48 hours so not sure if the projected snow form the North will get to us, but one to watch if you have a subscription:

[Nights King]

Tuesday morning still looks pretty interesting with heavy snow showers possible in morning although more maginal after mid day would be my guess...

Thought I would show you my 500 watt spotlight...no snow flake goes unseen with that!

[AWD]

Will definitely be interesting to see future NAE runs now this model is starting to enter the timeframe;

[A.J]

overcast, cold & a bit damp this morning....

[Nights King]

Will definitely be interesting to see future NAE runs now this model is starting to enter the timeframe;

I do find that a little strange how there is rain over land in places and snow all over the sea!?

Edited February 3, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

I do find that a little strange how there is rain over land in places and snow all over the sea!?

Probably because all the above chart shows is the type of PPN forecast to fall from the sky. Actually looking at the PPN chart for the same timeframe;

Shows nothing more than a bit of drizzle over our area. As and if, the showers over sea come inland, the intensity should help with potential snowfall.

[J10]

i have done an analysis of the situation for Wales and have now changed the detail for SW England.

and while some of the detail for SW England is not quite the same, it gives at least a decent estimate, and it is a good summary of the last NAE.

The first NAE chart covering Tuesday morning is now out.

At this stage, there is a WNW flow, with an unusually cold wedge of air associated with it.

Thickness Levels [850/1000HPa], around 1290m-1300m for most.

http://www.weatheron...=1&PERIOD=&WMO=

Thickness Levels [500/1000HPa], around 518-524HPa ( S Wales)

http://www.weatheron...=1&PERIOD=&WMO=

Dewpoints ranging from around 0c South Coast to -2c North Coast.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

850Hpa, Temps -6c to -7c generally

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

Rain/Snowfall chart, certainly the chance of some snow.

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

Precipitation amounts are always variable in such situations.

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

2m Temps ranging from 3c to 6c.

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

In this situation at least early on Tuesday we are in a very cold wedge of air, and this makes snowfall/wintriness more likely than would normally be in the case in a WNW airflow and with air temps above freezing.

Late on Tuesday, a wedge of less cold air will push in from the north, before a NNW flow sets in early on Wednesday, with cold uppers and thicknesses, however these are not likely to be as cold as suggested for early Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see if there are warnings issued from the Met Office as always that will give an indication as their thoughts with access to more detailed models than we have.

Monday:
Mostly dry with most places seeing some sunshine. Chance of a few showers in the far west at times. Becoming increasingly windy, [/size]
[size=3]especially around western coasts and across the moors. Maximum Temperature 9 °C.[/size]

[size=3]Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday
Strong winds and widespread wintry showers continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday, although Thursday may be a quieter, brighter day. [/size]
[size=3]Feeling bitterly cold, especially as winds turn northwesterly then northerly.[/size]

While the snowfall potential does not appear as great for SW England, certainly the chance wintry/snow showers quite widespread.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Jackone

[Nights King]

While largely tying in with my comments above, it does suggest they are not unduly concerned with settling snow amounts at this stage.

i have done an analysis of the situation for Wales and while some of the detail for SW England is not quite the same, it gives at least a decent estimate, and it is a good summary of the last NAE.

The first NAE chart covering Tuesday morning is now out.

At this stage, there is a WNW flow, with an unusually cold wedge of air associated with it.

Thickness Levels [850/1000HPa], around 1290m-1300m for most.

http://www.weatheron...=1&PERIOD=&WMO=

Thickness Levels [500/1000HPa], around 518-524HPa ( S Wales)

http://www.weatheron...=1&PERIOD=&WMO=

Dewpoints ranging from around 0c South Coast to -2c North Coast.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

850Hpa, Temps -6c to -7c generally

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

Rain/Snowfall chart, certainly the chance of some snow.

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

Precipitation amounts are always variable in such situations.

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

2m Temps ranging from 3c to 6c.

http://expert-images...0506_2_0306.gif

In this situation at least early on Tuesday we are in a very cold wedge of air, and this makes snowfall more likely than would normally be in the case in a WNW airflow and with air temps above freezing.

Late on Tuesday, a wedge of less cold air will push in from the north, before a NNW flow sets in early on Wednesday, with cold uppers and thicknesses, however these are not likely to be as cold as suggested for early Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see if there are warnings issued from the Met Office as always that will give an indication as their thoughts with access to more detailed models than we have.

Monday:
Mostly dry with most places seeing some sunshine. Chance of a few showers in the far west at times. Becoming increasingly windy, especially around western coasts and across the moors. Maximum Temperature 9 °C.
[b]	Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:[/b]

Strong winds and widespread wintry showers continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday, although Thursday may be a quieter, brighter day. Feeling bitterly cold, especially as winds turn northwesterly then northerly.

While largely tying in with my comments above, it does suggest they are not unduly concerned with settling snow amounts at this stage.

I doubt any warning would be given for showers in the daytime period as they are just that... Showers and sunny intervals so you have thaw conditions between the showers etc with sun heating ground so unless a more organised trough comes into view settling snow would be limited to heaviest showers?

[J10]

While largely tying in with my comments above, it does suggest they are not unduly concerned with settling snow amounts at this stage.

I doubt any warning would be given for showers in the daytime period as they are just that... Showers and sunny intervals so you have thaw conditions between the showers etc with sun heating ground so unless a more organised trough comes into view settling snow would be limited to heaviest showers?

What I tend to find in these situations is that (for fairly obvious) reasons, settling snowfall from showers tends to happen overnight, and more especially from 6am to 9am, I was going through my comments form the Wales thread and have systematically changed all the detail for the South West. To me the risk for the South West is generally lower than for Wales, although hillier areas such as yourself are likely to get something from this. Also NAE has been known to underdo precipitation amounts in showery weather like this.

By the way I hope people don't mind me butting in, its just that as I have done some preparation work for Wales, SW England does have similar weather, well at times.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Jackone

[snowmadchrisuk]

Mon NIght / Tuesday I am currently seeing Showers heaviest around Bristol Channel coasts , Most precipitation Charts indicate this will be rain / sleet as they are only forecasting light precipitation , but it is unusual to see due point's below freezing in the Bristol Channel , Latest nae has our area between -1 and -2 , this means Snow is possible even with temps slightly above freezing ,. I just hope we don't get a system like this morning , where the band of rain broke up without effecting most of our area, As we are now in range the NAE is probably the best model to follow, although It did very badly with Friday's system , so don't take it as gospel.

[gottolovethisweather]

NMM on NW Extra only out to +48 hours so not sure if the projected snow form the North will get to us, but one to watch if you have a subscription:

Obviously you can't at the moment, but you want to move that forward by some 6 to 18 hours and I think it will GAME ON for a lot of us.

Will definitely be interesting to see future NAE runs now this model is starting to enter the timeframe;

The NAE must try harder, come on, don't let us down.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Obviously you can't at the moment, but you want to move that forward by some 6 to 18 hours and I think it will GAME ON for a lot of us.

The NAE must try harder, come on, don't let us down.

The Weather gods must try harder ...