South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[AWD]

Very latest modified UKMO-GM for T+96, just issued, ref my post above.

Our Cornish residents might be interested in that!

[fergieweather]

I think it's one of the LRF key dates Ian.

Seems unlikely to verify.

Ah ok. Yup, I fail to see exactly why it's garnered such a level of excitement. However, I'm the first to accept anything could change. But I'm merely representing the views from Exeter, who have a full suite of products to offer judgements from.... and pointing out that they've offered no suggestion of a severe event based on what's being viewed as of the here and now. So I've no idea what other product is suggesting otherwise!?

[gottolovethisweather]

I fail to see the hyperventilating about Tuesday versus any genuine winter extreme in strict sense of the term. Yes, a decidedly v cold feel thanks primarily to windchill rather than very low ambient temperature. But crucially, at this juncture, ensemble analysis offers little extra useful insight towards Tuesday, certainly none to support notion of a 'severe event' under accepted definition (Daily Express excepted). For example, through Tuesday, latest MOGREPS has no signal anywhere in UK for more than 5cm of snow. It then has a signal for more than 1cm, transferring from western Scotland across to the North Sea by Wednesday, coupled to a signal also for NW Wales. Conversely, the 12z ECMWF EPS does have a strong signal for more than 5cm of snow for western Scotland on Tuesday (but nowhere else at that amount), which it steadily reduces to a low probability for the whole of Scotland by Wednesday. If these combined ensemble signals were much more compelling, a warning would have been flagged as likely already... but whilst gale/severe gales are progged as well as snow showers, nothing I've heard in UKMO briefings, nor read in their latest analysis (issued 40 mins ago) screams of a 'severe event' versus accepted use of the term in a historical sense.

Thanks for your view on this and with all your added model suite input availability, it is good to hear of the current thinking for next week.

With snowfall I imagine even at this timeframe, you would have very little confidence indeed in actual snowfall predictions, yet alone where and when.

I like most on netweather try to second guess what may or may not happen and we all have different expectations as to what to expect, short-term and longer-term. The climate of the British Isles provides a steep learning curve each and every day it seems (bar HP dominated weather, I guess) and in that we also have to include the top brass.

Good stuff and do keep your insights coming.

[fergieweather]

Our Cornish residents might be interested in that!

Yup albeit cautionary note re such nuances at this range! Our primary concern for snow next week is potential for troughs running S in flow, plus other features beyond current model synthesis, tending to offer threat of more widespread falls at times but we're not going heavy on that story for now and will await NAE, UK4 & UKV output from later Sunday.

[AWD]

Found a little snippet courtesy of Matt Hugo regarding the EC 32 Dayer;

"To re-cap the overnight EC32 model signals a colder, blocked pattern further into Feb we go with a general mean wind direction from the NE"

Sounds like there are similarities to that and where the later stages of the EC Det was heading.

Edited February 2, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

I think it's one of the LRF key dates Ian.

Seems unlikely to verify.

It was in mine, issued on the 30th January @ 22:59.

[fergieweather]

Found a little snippet courtesy of Matt Hugo regarding the EC 32 Dayer;

"To re-cap the overnight EC32 model signals a colder, blocked pattern further into Feb we go with a general mean wind direction from the NE"

Sounds like there similarities to that and where the later stages of the EC Det was heading.

Indeed. Exeter also recently briefed us that a 'prolonged cold spell' was not to be discounted in public forecasts, despite varied model flux yet again characterising much of the MR with a varied raft of oscillating outcomes.

[kumquat]

Thanks Fergie for injecting, as usual, a little unbiased science into the proceedings. Some of the posters here seem to be revered as weather Gods but the basis of their forecasts are actually nothing more than pseudo-science. I don't understand why said "forecasters" are not published in the scientific literature. Actually, I do.

[Blizzardof82]

As a novice this mornings ECM at t72 to t96 looks like quite a potent winter storm for Scotland and the North(am I reading it right?).

IMO winter is not over just yet all still to play for, lovely cool morning at Frenchay this morning looking forward to a cool sunny day with gin blue sky

[gottolovethisweather]

As a novice this mornings ECM at t72 to t96 looks like quite a potent winter storm for Scotland and the North(am I reading it right?).

IMO winter is not over just yet all still to play for, lovely cool morning at Frenchay this morning looking forward to a cool sunny day with gin blue sky

Certainly looks right but it shows quite a leap from t+72 to get to t+96, feasible or not? However after RJS's post yesterday evening, folks will be at risk of overanalysing that particular timeframe.

Looks another half decent ECM run for us coldies once again to be fair.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Yeay, we have clear skies at last!!!

Beautiful morning, crisp and clear. I love a sunny winters day, although I 'd prefer some snow of course.

[Coast]

Encouraging but:

1. Still along way off in model terms
   
2. Subject to change in area
   
3. Only one model (GFS)
   

[Dorsetbred]

Yeay, we have clear skies at last!!!

Beautiful morning, crisp and clear. I love a sunny winters day, although I 'd prefer some snow of course.

Same here, after an overnight low of 0.9C now clear and sunny

[cerneman]

Nice blue sky day,,,, Two good things today, All local folks who had some flooding issues got there doors and windows flung wide open to help drying process,,,,Chance to put mats outside,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,River still high with plenty of flooded fields, Muddy lane but standing water retreating,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,And not required today for seabird rescue, Change wind will help dispearse pollution away from mid channel, One problem, Seem to have touch of a cold coming on,,,,,Hope not turn into the dreaded Man flu, We all know how much worse flu affects men!!!!!!!!

Edited February 2, 2013 by cerneman

[Nights King]

Well the week ahead is full of promise...

Tuesday is still looking like main interest at moment and as I glanced at netweathers gfs based 7day it gives me 5cm of snow on tuesday... If only

[dec10snow]

I'm finding it very hard to see near record breaking cold in mid Feb, but I'm no way near close to the meteorological intelligence Roger holds.

Roger wouldn't post what he posted without evidence and data backing up his thoughts. He is obviously seeing something that a lot us aren't currently. However, like any forecaster, he can't always be right, it is just his forecast at the end of the day, but one that we should take seriously.

I've made it known what I think will happen this month, and tonight my confidence in this scenario remains. The latest ECM run showing a good broad trend of my thoughts.

I'm very interested in seeing what future model runs might show after Roger's post now. Cold yes, but severe cold? Mmmmmmm!

Well done then GTLTW

Thanks AWD yeah, I was questioning, because I'm aware he's a highly respected poster, but that forecast did seem rather sensationalist to me! Not that I don't want it to happen

Good to see Ian's input again, appreciated as always

Just to add, completely clear blue skies lovely

Edited February 2, 2013 by dec10snow

[cerneman]

Well the week ahead is full of promise...

Tuesday is still looking like main interest at moment and as I glanced at netweathers gfs based 7day it gives me 5cm of snow on tuesday... If only

Yes Tuesday could br interesting for your elevation,

[Gas Ed]

Well, what a beautiful day. Temp now a pleasant +4.2 after an overnight low of +0.4.

Think I might go out for a run, to make room for a few jars later

Also, is it worth washing the car, or is it just going to get covered in grit again next week?

Just been reading this thread from last night. Some very good stuff indeed Keep it coming...........

[AWD]

Off out today to make the most of this sunshine before it clouds over later.

Interesting week next week. Expect the unexpected.

Right.... Fry up here I come!

[legritter]

Just had my weekly treat of bacon butty ,as for the weather a brilliant day chilly out of the wind but dry .as for next week plenty of potential even for low lying areas .but as its 48/72 hrs away and current detail just basic its best to keep an eye on latest MET Office Faxes and certainly a radar watching time coming up .lets hope our friends in wales dont demolish our showers or more organised areas of wintry precipitation .so i think going by current charts etc tues /thurs very interesting beyond that many possibilities but we could get lucky .i put 4 bird feeders out back in december ,not much seed taken but they are all sprouting .not seen many small birds this winter ,perhaps mortality rates have gone up with wet conditions .anyhow heres hoping for some magical white stuff .

[ARTDEMOLE]

Fresh feel to it all today Sun is well out..So telescope will be out tonight..6ºC..NNW 9 km/h..A few clouds...

[Mark Parsons]

Yes nice to have some bright winter sunshine. Agreed next week does look interesting, with these set ups anything can happen at short notice. All in all apart from the copious amounts of rain the winter so far is proving to be an old fashioned type winter with slightly below average temps and marginal snow events, without backing it up with evidence I am happy to stick my neck out and say it won't get much better than that now, what we are getting is a trend of the winter and that's that, having said that we do not need to get or want deep cold, to cold and it won't snow because the deep cold often brings dry weather with exception to the usual coastal locations. We need to hedge our bets on the kind of set ups that we will get next week and be pleased with any suprises.

[gottolovethisweather]

I just thought this was worthy of inclusion in here, as copied from the MOD thread, courtesy of fergieweather.

To paraphrase our very latest from the duty Medium Range Forecaster: "....Recent ensembles have mostly NW types at first but with an increase of westerly types into the trend (10-15d) period... (and) more signs of a recovery of temperatures for most areas."

and also.

UKMO view remains consistent. They've just issued new 6-15d analysis based on 00z output.

Essentially cold / periodic snow / ultimate battleground set-up (latter developing Fri & with easterly push of uncertain scope continuing through to Monday). Into 10-15d period, Exeter continue story with MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER products showing strong NW/W influence with varying degrees of cyclonicity. Their conclusion is for the cold/wintry phase next week to be short-lived, through to about following Monday; the trend 10-15 d period then characterised by return to average or slightly below average temperatures. Thus, a consistent story from them over last 3 days in this regard, i.e. no real expectation of a *prolonged* cold spell of any note. Hope this helps.

[Bristawl Si]

I just thought this was worthy of inclusion in here, as copied from the MOD thread, courtesy of fergieweather.

To paraphrase our very latest from the duty Medium Range Forecaster: "....Recent ensembles have mostly NW types at first but with an increase of westerly types into the trend (10-15d) period... (and) more signs of a recovery of temperatures for most areas."

and also.

UKMO view remains consistent. They've just issued new 6-15d analysis based on 00z output.

Essentially cold / periodic snow / ultimate battleground set-up (latter developing Fri & with easterly push of uncertain scope continuing through to Monday). Into 10-15d period, Exeter continue story with MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER products showing strong NW/W influence with varying degrees of cyclonicity. Their conclusion is for the cold/wintry phase next week to be short-lived, through to about following Monday; the trend 10-15 d period then characterised by return to average or slightly below average temperatures. Thus, a consistent story from them over last 3 days in this regard, i.e. no real expectation of a *prolonged* cold spell of any note. Hope this helps.

Yes read it earlier.

A sobering post from Ian which was great to read, even if just helping to cut through some of the conflicting opinions in the Mad disc thread.

Ian's post likely to be more realistic i would think. Great to have him on here.

[Mark Parsons]

I just thought this was worthy of inclusion in here, as copied from the MOD thread, courtesy of fergieweather.

To paraphrase our very latest from the duty Medium Range Forecaster: "....Recent ensembles have mostly NW types at first but with an increase of westerly types into the trend (10-15d) period... (and) more signs of a recovery of temperatures for most areas."

and also.

UKMO view remains consistent. They've just issued new 6-15d analysis based on 00z output.

Essentially cold / periodic snow / ultimate battleground set-up (latter developing Fri & with easterly push of uncertain scope continuing through to Monday). Into 10-15d period, Exeter continue story with MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER products showing strong NW/W influence with varying degrees of cyclonicity. Their conclusion is for the cold/wintry phase next week to be short-lived, through to about following Monday; the trend 10-15 d period then characterised by return to average or slightly below average temperatures. Thus, a consistent story from them over last 3 days in this regard, i.e. no real expectation of a *prolonged* cold spell of any note. Hope this helps.

Yes all makes sense but could well be wrong,however I would rather have short lived cold spells rather than prolonged,some of us have to earn a living and I have lost a fair bit of money due especially to the rain and being to cold to build!!