South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Coast]

How about framing this one for the evening:

[gottolovethisweather]

How about framing this one for the evening:

Good spot Coast , Tuesday through Thursday next week is going to be a period to watch and my thoughts from the previous post were really looking at my longer-term (medium-term as per MetO termininology).

Do you have one for Wednesday and Thursday to go with the one above.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Often what makes or breaks a winter, is past conditions, so having had a think about it, I can state the following.

So far this winter, for this little island, at least IMBY, I've witnessed three ICE days and double-digit snow seen falling and snow lying days. Not too much to complain about really from this coldies point of view.

Plenty of surprises to come yet and we may well yet see the UPGRADE I was predicting afterall.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Lets be honest AWD, its poor outlook for sustained cold. No GH blocking, just a mid atlantic high that topples. Not one of those charts posted show any decent height annomolies, just low pressure continually over Greenland.

The best we can hope for is something like Jan with a weak HP around Iceland maybe towards Scandi.

That's exactly what I'm looking for and think will happen again is something like January. As I said above, the attempt at Greenland heights will fail. It will be heights to our north/north east that will provide us with a last bite of winter if indeed it does happen.

Personally, and this is just my personal opinion, I would probably prefer something like we saw in January anyway. Not the deep cold some want, but a good chance of further snowfall like I saw in January, IMBY.

Anywho, still believe in my forecast at this stage. Still good to see the Met Office also favour colder than average conditions later this month too.

Still believe we will see one last bite of winter. Not severe, never said it would be severe, just cold enough for snow will do me.

[cerneman]

Up date on Seabirds,,,,,,,,,,,,,Spent Morning down on Chesil beach, Saw number dead birds and know we rescued 6 guillemots, Some of birds have pebbles stuck to there feathers and in sorry state,,,,,,,,,,,Today been reports of 10 dead Guillimots washed up on Bournemouth beaches, also Razerbill and couple Guillemots rescued, High tides Tonight will bring more birds in along coasts from Devon through to Hampshire,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Repeat Telephone number if you see any birds on beach 0300123499

Edited February 1, 2013 by cerneman

[gottolovethisweather]

I just wonder?

Maybe a surprise snowflake from this little lot before they die out into overnight period. My gut feeling is that they will have cleared before the coldest uppers reach our region. However, without hope we have nothing.

Remembering my post from a couple of days ago suggesting certain timeframes to watch.

Three dates seemingly stand out for me as ones to watch at this range, they are Friday 1st February, Tuesday 5th February and yet further potential for yet deeper cold from the 10th February onwards.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Sleet/Snow turning up in Northern England as I type.

Could we get lucky once again.

Currently in Newbury, we are 4.3c AT, 3.0c DP, 1mph ten minute avg SW'rly and a falling slowly 997.9mb Barometer trend.

Stand by your weather stations, DPs reading to hand and prepare for a possible lamp-post watch over the coming hours.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

tuesday looks to be the next chance of interesting and wintry weather...

My met office app has me down for heavy snow showers all day.

[dec10snow]

The bad news if you can call it that, will be that this region will see more in the way of nondescript weather on the whole, being nearer to the HP cell in time. Alongside this, I think the highest chances of any developing snow events will nearly always be in the East.

I wouldn't call this bad news of any sort to be honest. As much as I love snow... We REALLY need a dry spell! You know it's bad, when whenever you walk on grass it's so wet you stand on it and water comes out of the ground, or there is just standing water on the grass anyway. You also know its bad when your potted plants have given up taking in any more water!! Had to tip the excess out of one the other day!

[Dorsetbred]

How about framing this one for the evening:

Nah

With a temp of 4.1C and DP of 1.1C I have no plans to keep my lamp-post company tonight.

Edited February 1, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Nights King]

I wouldn't call this bad news of any sort to be honest. As much as I love snow... We REALLY need a dry spell! You know it's bad, when whenever you walk on grass it's so wet you stand on it and water comes out of the ground, or there is just standing water on the grass anyway. You also know its bad when your potted plants have given up taking in any more water!! Had to tip the excess out of one the other day!

Hey don't worry we have all spring and summer for dry weather Hosepipe bans by May

6 inches of snow does'nt equate to much water really (15-20mm) either once its laid on ground for a couple of weeks... if only

Edited February 1, 2013 by mullender83

[gottolovethisweather]

I wouldn't call this bad news of any sort to be honest. As much as I love snow... We REALLY need a dry spell! You know it's bad, when whenever you walk on grass it's so wet you stand on it and water comes out of the ground, or there is just standing water on the grass anyway. You also know its bad when your potted plants have given up taking in any more water!! Had to tip the excess out of one the other day!

Indeed, hence the "if you can call it that" comment I added alongside it. Besides the weather will do whatever it decides to and as per my previous couple of posts, there could even be a short-term snowy surprise tonight. It is so difficult when putting any assessment out there as the British Isles truly contains many geographical niches and regional specific traits. I am still hopeful of some further snowfall before winter is over and that would satisfy things for me, should that be the end result. The dryness can come in time for Spring and Summer as far as I'm concerned.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Nah

With a temp of 4.1C and DP of 1.1C I have no plans to keep my lamp-post company tonight.

That chart is for Tuesday Db, best keep the lamp-post company then.

Incidentally your DP is more conducive for snow-making than mine currently is, too.

[Dorsetbred]

That chart is for Tuesday Db, best keep the lamp-post company then.

Incidentally your DP is more conducive for snow-making than mine currently is, too.

Yeah I did notice that, even that has gone up slightly over the last 20 or so mins it was about 0.2 -0.3 lower.

All to play for then, into next week.

[dec10snow]

Indeed, hence the "if you can call it that" comment I added alongside it. Besides the weather will do whatever it decides to and as per my previous couple of posts, there could even be a short-term snowy surprise tonight. It is so difficult when putting any assessment out there as the British Isles truly contains many geographical niches and regional specific traits. I am still hopeful of some further snowfall before winter is over and that would satisfy things for me, should that be the end result. The dryness can come in time for Spring and Summer as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah, a bit more snow would be nice, and your right, like Mullender said, we have all of the spring and summer for dry weather but still, maybe a bit drier would be nice! Maybe we could have a bit of snow, just to top up the water levels, as they are quite low at the moment!

Hey don't worry we have all spring and summer for dry weather Hosepipe bans by May

6 inches of snow does'nt equate to much water really (15-20mm) either once its laid on ground for a couple of weeks... if only

Good point. Maybe 6inches lying snow for 3 weeks? And no other precipitation? Would be quite a dry month then

[AWD]

Anyone notice Roger J Smith's post in the MOD thread?

Don't diss him, this guy knows what he's talking about. His winter forecast isn't doing bad at all at the moment.

His latest post is 10 times braver than mine! :p

[fergieweather]

Anyone notice Roger J Smith's post in the MOD thread?

Don't diss him, this guy knows what he's talking about. His winter forecast isn't doing bad at all at the moment.

His latest post is 10 times braver than mine! :p

Braver than UKMO too. Nothing I've seen from them suggests a 'severe weather event' on Tuesday. Looks like rather staple winter fare in their modified output and analysis. Anyway, all some way off.

Edited February 1, 2013 by fergieweather

[Polar Bear]

Oh I have always liked reading Rogers post AWD. Such a knowledgable chap and he tells it like the scene of an epic movie. Bold and very graphical. Having said that there is a joyous mood in that thread AND for non scientific reasons I think he may not be far off for Tuesday. Alas I can't remember 1969 ..

Ill look forward to the build up on here in the meantime

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all.

It is about time I undertook some analysis of the GEFS ensembles suite. As ever, I base my assumptions over a succession of runs from the 12z suite in isolation. Intriguingly, of late, the GFS is lagging behind the ECM when looking for the ultimate longer-term COLD signal which many of us COLDIES are still craving. However, the GFS often goes zonal and/or goes out on a limb by default and because of this, I am simply using the period after FI for trend determination purposes.

Here is how the GEFS 12z ensembles saw things developing in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset some three days ago.

So what of today, how does the GEFS 12z ensembles view things in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset.

Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

From the above, I firmly believe the trend shown above indicates something largely drier the further SW you are located within the UK. Having said that, there will be a few occasions when this clearly won't be the case, more about those later.

Obviously, in terms of whether when these showery outbreaks are likely to occur can be difficult to predict with any certainty. However, you can determine the likelihood of whether any wintriness is due in the precipitation. In this case, I will firstly deal with Dorset as an example and will advise you to follow the timeframes closely.

Dorset T850s on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

Broadly speaking, you can decipher whether the general trend towards something drier is likely to occur by looking at the Air Pressure tendencies, so I will now attach these for Dorset, in the first instance.

Dorset Air Pressure trend shown on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

So once again, from the above, the trend shown IS for something relatively dry but there are certain timeframes to look out for a blip in this trend. These are the 3rd February which will be a low impact RAIN event, with the period from the 5th February into 6th February looking a decent shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. FI begins around 7th to 8th February and from even further out, say the 13th February onwards, it hints at a good deal wetter scenario than the preceding ten days or so.

Onto Berkshire, things aren't much different in terms of overall synoptics. Berkshire T850s as shown on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

Now the Air Pressure trend shown on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

Judging by this, the trend shown IS also for something relatively dry but again there are certain timeframes to look out for. Namely for Berkshire these are the 4th February which will be a low impact RAIN event, with the slim probability of backedge snowfall. Next up would tend to be the 8th February looking a reasonable shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. I will stress the period from the 5th February through to the 9th February would provide snowfall opportunities in terms of upper air temperatures at this stage. As stated before, FI again begins around 7th to 8th February.

I hope the above is of use and folks, keep tuned for many more updates from the usual suspects in the coming days.

Still a whole lot to play for with this winter and for once Mother Nature looks like calming down somewhat for those who need it most.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[dec10snow]

Hello all.

It is about time I undertook some analysis of the GEFS ensembles suite. As ever, I base my assumptions over a succession of runs from the 12z suite in isolation. Intriguingly, of late, the GFS is lagging behind the ECM when looking for the ultimate longer-term COLD signal which many of us COLDIES are still craving. However, the GFS often goes zonal and/or goes out on a limb by default and because of this, I am simply using the period after FI for trend determination purposes.

Here is how the GEFS 12z ensembles saw things developing in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset some three days ago.

So what of today, how does the GEFS 12z ensembles view things in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset.

Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

From the above, I firmly believe the trend shown above indicates something largely drier the further SW you are located within the UK. Having said that, there will be a few occasions when this clearly won't be the case, more about those later.

Obviously, in terms of whether when these showery outbreaks are likely to occur can be difficult to predict with any certainty. However, you can determine the likelihood of whether any wintriness is due in the precipitation. In this case, I will firstly deal with Dorset as an example and will advise you to follow the timeframes closely.

Dorset T850s on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

Broadly speaking, you can decipher whether the general trend towards something drier is likely to occur by looking at the Air Pressure tendencies, so I will now attach these for Dorset, in the first instance.

Dorset Air Pressure trend shown on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

So once again, from the above, the trend shown IS for something relatively dry but there are certain timeframes to look out for a blip in this trend. These are the 3rd February which will be a low impact RAIN event, with the period from the 5th February into 6th February looking a decent shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. FI begins around 7th to 8th February and from even further out, say the 13th February onwards, it hints at a good deal wetter scenario than the preceding ten days or so.

Onto Berkshire, things aren't much different in terms of overall synoptics. Berkshire T850s as shown on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

Now the Air Pressure trend shown on the 29th January, some three days ago.

And as of today.

Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

Judging by this, the trend shown IS also for something relatively dry but again there are certain timeframes to look out for. Namely for Berkshire these are the 4th February which will be a low impact RAIN event, with the slim probability of backedge snowfall. Next up would tend to be the 8th February looking a reasonable shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. I will stress the period from the 5th February through to the 9th February would provide snowfall opportunities in terms of upper air temperatures at this stage. As stated before, FI again begins around 7th to 8th February.

I hope the above is of use and folks, keep tuned for many more updates from the usual suspects in the coming days.

Still a whole lot to play for with this winter and for once Mother Nature looks like calming down somewhat for those who need it most.

Thanks GTLTW, very helpful

AWD: Thanks for notifying me of that post, as I hardly venture into the mod thread anymore, as everyone seems to interpret the models differently, and it ends up in me being confused! Anyway, it's a very interesting post, would you agree to some extent with his post?? It's strange, as he's taking about Tuesday, but Monday looks like being more of an event for the north?

Edited February 1, 2013 by dec10snow

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks GTLTW, very helpful

AWD: Thanks for notifying me of that post, as I hardly venture into the mod thread anymore, as everyone seems to interpret the models differently, and it ends up in me being confused! Anyway, it's a very interesting post, would you agree to some extent with his post?? It's strange, as he's taking about Tuesday, but Monday looks like being more of an event for the north?

I'm sure AWD and fergieweather will indeed have their own views on that particular post, which on the face of it seems rather sensationalist. However, like AWD says, I also have a lot of respect for folk who don't beat about the bush and have had a fair few forecasting successes to their name too.

I had seen that particular date as potentially one to watch back on the 30th January as you can see below. Note the last FOUR charts and the last but one paragraph, which is where I refer to it.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2579482

I based my assumptions purely on the way the NH Jetstream was shown to reorientate itself around that timeframe. Interesting watching things develop next week, whatever happens.

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

AWD: Thanks for notifying me of that post, as I hardly venture into the mod thread anymore, as everyone seems to interpret the models differently, and it ends up in me being confused! Anyway, it's a very interesting post, would you agree to some extent with his post?? It's strange, as he's taking about Tuesday, but Monday looks like being more of an event for the north?

I'm finding it very hard to see near record breaking cold in mid Feb, but I'm no way near close to the meteorological intelligence Roger holds.

Roger wouldn't post what he posted without evidence and data backing up his thoughts. He is obviously seeing something that a lot us aren't currently. However, like any forecaster, he can't always be right, it is just his forecast at the end of the day, but one that we should take seriously.

I've made it known what I think will happen this month, and tonight my confidence in this scenario remains. The latest ECM run showing a good broad trend of my thoughts.

I'm very interested in seeing what future model runs might show after Roger's post now. Cold yes, but severe cold? Mmmmmmm!

Edited February 2, 2013 by AWD

[fergieweather]

I fail to see the hyperventilating about Tuesday versus any genuine winter extreme in strict sense of the term. Yes, a decidedly v cold feel thanks primarily to windchill rather than very low ambient temperature. But crucially, at this juncture, ensemble analysis offers little extra useful insight towards Tuesday, certainly none to support notion of a 'severe event' under accepted definition (Daily Express excepted). For example, through Tuesday, latest MOGREPS has no signal anywhere in UK for more than 5cm of snow. It then has a signal for more than 1cm, transferring from western Scotland across to the North Sea by Wednesday, coupled to a signal also for NW Wales. Conversely, the 12z ECMWF EPS does have a strong signal for more than 5cm of snow for western Scotland on Tuesday (but nowhere else at that amount), which it steadily reduces to a low probability for the whole of Scotland by Wednesday. If these combined ensemble signals were much more compelling, a warning would have been flagged as likely already... but whilst gale/severe gales are progged as well as snow showers, nothing I've heard in UKMO briefings, nor read in their latest analysis (issued 40 mins ago) screams of a 'severe event' versus accepted use of the term in a historical sense.

Edited February 2, 2013 by fergieweather

[Bristawl Si]

I fail to see the hyperventilating about Tuesday versus any genuine winter extreme in strict sense of the term. Yes, a decidedly v cold feel thanks primarily to windchill rather than very low ambient temperature. But crucially, at this juncture, ensemble analysis offers little extra useful insight towards Tuesday, certainly none to support notion of a 'severe event' under accepted definition (Daily Express excepted). For example, through Tuesday, latest MOGREPS has no signal anywhere in UK for more than 5cm of snow. It then has a signal for more than 1cm, transferring from western Scotland across to the North Sea by Wednesday, coupled to a signal also for NW Wales. Conversely, the 12z ECMWF EPS does have a strong signal for more than 5cm of snow for western Scotland on Tuesday (but nowhere else at that amount), which it steadily reduces to a low probability for the whole of Scotland by Wednesday. If these combined ensemble signals were much more compelling, a warning would have been flagged as likely already... but whilst gale/severe gales are progged as well as snow showers, nothing I've heard in UKMO briefings, nor read in their latest analysis (issued 40 mins ago) screams of a 'severe event' versus accepted use of the term in a historical sense.

I think it's one of the LRF key dates Ian.

Seems unlikely to verify.

[fergieweather]

Very latest modified UKMO-GM for T+96, just issued, ref my post above.