South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Mark Parsons]

Yes read it earlier.

A sobering post from Ian which was great to read, even if just helping to cut through some of the conflicting opinions in the Mad disc thread.

Ian's post likely to be more realistic i would think. Great to have him on here.

Have to give respect to Ian for a non bias balanced realistic no fantasy professional view and to the sensible posters who put a lot of time in on this forum with their views!! Edited February 2, 2013 by Mark Parsons

[AWD]

I know this doesn't relate to our region, its looking pretty non-descript for us for the next 48 hours, but look at the winds for the north;

There isn't going to be much fishing in the North Sea on Monday!

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes read it earlier.

A sobering post from Ian which was great to read, even if just helping to cut through some of the conflicting opinions in the Mad disc thread.

Ian's post likely to be more realistic i would think. Great to have him on here.

I think, due to our location from a global perspective, we are always going to be on the cusp of something potentially brutally cold. As an example, just take a look at what happened across Central Europe last February, mega snow depths and indeed brutally cold in places too. We have been spoiled over recent years in terms of colder spells but I feel in this day and age, that is all they will really end up being, a spell. The extreme case coming in December 2010 to which all folk will relate, not alwayys with regard to its snowfall either. Many folk's views in the MOD thread are enshrined in too much hype and expectancy these days but you cannot really blame them when you think of recent history.

With regard to the future of this year's winter, I expect more SNOW and I expect some chilly days next week. By the time we get to 10th February, it truly could go either way. March snow doesn't float many people's boats but that month certainly delivered for me back in 2005, with 16 consecutive days of snow seen falling from late February into early March.

I always hope for something special but the reality is often the nearest of near misses and I believe that is best way to play things in this weather game.

You have been warned, the 12z's are a-rolling.

Edited February 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

What a great day in the sunshine in South Glos! How I've missed it haha.

Makes me look forward to Spring even more now....but wouldn't say no to further snow opportunities before then

[AWD]

What a great day in the sunshine in South Glos! How I've missed it haha.

Makes me look forward to Spring even more now....but wouldn't say no to further snow opportunities before then

That's what I love about the next 10 weeks or so. One minute you could be under warm sunshine, the next it could be snowing, then an hour later a thundery shower could come along.

This is the time of year when warmer air at southern latitudes starts to build again, and with colder air starting to displace as the vortex weakens into Spring, these two air masses can create some topsy turvy weather where anything is possible.

[gottolovethisweather]

That's what I love about the next 10 weeks or so. One minute you could be under warm sunshine, the next it could be snowing, then an hour later a thundery shower could come along.

This is the time of year when warmer air at southern latitudes starts to build again, and with colder air starting to displace as the vortex weakens into Spring, these two air masses can create some topsy turvy weather where anything is possible.

You're not called Active Weather Dude for no reason then.

[AWD]

UKMO run is interesting at 72 hours;

That's a strong NWerly even penetrating down to our part of the world as can be seen below;

And in this cold, NWerly airmass there is PPN shown;

Wonder what that might fall as?

The GFS version shows some wintriness;

Edited February 2, 2013 by AWD

[Dorsetbred]

Still glorious sunshine, as the sun sinks lower, these sorts of days are great.

As to next week, I'm sorry I'm not onboard yet, like last week where the excitement hinged on a "possible" storm it didn't happen.

Kinda says it all really, but I'll be open minded I'm just not there yet, certainly not IMBY...

[gottolovethisweather]

What if anything could possibly go wrong?

With the MetO on board, against the consistent signal provided by the GFS over recent days for Tuesday 5th February event.

Wales, SW & CSE regional SNOW risk charts from the GFS 12z.

Tuesday 5th February 6am

Tuesday 5th February 12pm

Tuesday 5th February 6pm

Associated Dewpoints, courtesy of the GFS 12z.

Tuesday 5th February 6am

Tuesday 5th February 12pm

Tuesday 5th February 6pm

For now though, we best wait for the NMM and NAE outputs as we approach the event.

Edited February 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Parsons]

What if anything could possibly go wrong?

With the MetO on board, against the consistent signal provided by the GFS over recent days for Tuesday 5th February event.

Wales, SW & CSE regional SNOW risk charts from the GFS 12z.

Tuesday 5th February 6am

Tuesday 5th February 12pm

Tuesday 5th February 6pm

Associated Dewpoints, courtesy of the GFS 12z.

Tuesday 5th February 6am

Tuesday 5th February 12pm

Tuesday 5th February 6pm

For now though, we best wait for the NMM and NAE outputs as we approach the event.

Not much to get excited about there then most if any snow will be on high ground above 400m and the dew points go up by the evening!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Not much to get excited about there then most if any snow will be on high ground above 400m and the dew points go up by the evening!!

Quite rightly, if taken at face value you could easily say it might end up another "close but no cigar" scenario. However, to me those charts spell fantastic potential due to the timing of the system (if verifying) complete with plenty of nocturnal cooling and absolutely nothing wrong Dewpoint wise.

I am not providing any hint of IMBYism either as I'll accept whatever turns out to the case.

I think in this circumstance Mark, we'll beg to differ. Besides as time ticks on, I suppose wintry mix scenarios are more likely than not, so with that in mind, you might end up correct.

Edited February 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Parsons]

Quite rightly, if taken at face value you could easily say it might end up another "close but no cigar" scenario. However, to me those charts spell fantastic potential due to the timing of the system (if verifying) complete with plenty of nocturnal cooling and absolutely nothing wrong Dewpoint wise.

I am not providing any hint of IMBYism either as I'll accept whatever turns out to the case.

I think in this circumstance Mark, we'll beg to differ.

I am not disputing the potential, the potential is there, I apologise if I missed the point, however potential is a big word! The circumstances for any ppn next week will probably be very marginal as it stands today, do you not think?

[jethro]

Forgive me for this totally off topic post....Somerset is due to become the first rural county with no Countryside Service. The final decision for this is to be made on February 6th, if it is passed (as looks likely) then all countryside and environmental concerns/projects will have little, if any support or financial backing. We live in a beautiful part of the world with a diverse ecology, it needs all the help it can get to protect it, please take a few seconds to read the links below and please, please email your local councillor if you disagree with this proposed plan.

Many thanks.

http://mikerigby.org/2013/01/25/somerset-rural-county-countryside-service/

http://www.somersetwildlife.org/cuts_challenge

[J10]

What if anything could possibly go wrong?

With the MetO on board, against the consistent signal provided by the GFS over recent days for Tuesday 5th February event.

Wales, SW & CSE regional SNOW risk charts from the GFS 12z.

Tuesday 5th February 6am

Tuesday 5th February 12pm

Tuesday 5th February 6pm

Associated Dewpoints, courtesy of the GFS 12z.

Tuesday 5th February 6am

Tuesday 5th February 12pm

Tuesday 5th February 6pm

For now though, we best wait for the NMM and NAE outputs as we approach the event.

Excellent analysis, but I would add the following charts if I may.

Showing the thickness levels which is very supportive for snow early on Tuesday, becoming less so as a milder wedge of air pushes down from the north later on Tuesday, before becoming good again early on Wednesday.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Jackone

[AWD]

If your after cold/snow then you really want to start praying the latest ECM verifies;

Heights to our north building, and a cold north easterly setting in with a Euro trough. Rather chilly;

These were the sort of charts I was hoping to see mid-late February, not quite this early. IMO, tonight's model output is rather pleasing if your after wintry weather. Possible wintriness on elevated areas midweek followed by possible snowfall next weekend. Remaining below average all week.

Edited February 2, 2013 by AWD

[Mark Parsons]

Excellent analysis, but I would add the following charts if I may.

Showing the thickness levels which is very supportive for snow early on Tuesday, becoming less so as a milder wedge of air pushes down from the north later on Tuesday, before becoming good again early on Wednesday.

Comparing the thicknesses with the snow risk charts would suggest the potential for snowfall is better than I first thought, so apologies again GLTW for jumping the gun!

[gottolovethisweather]

I am not disputing the potential, the potential is there, I apologise if I missed the point, however potential is a big word! The circumstances for any ppn next week will probably be very marginal as it stands today, do you not think?

I guess a wintry mix is the safest bet, yes. But I think it will swing towards higher chances of SNOW as we get nearer the timeframe.

[gottolovethisweather]

Comparing the thicknesses with the snow risk charts would suggest the potential for snowfall is better than I first thought, so apologies again GLTW for jumping the gun!

No problem. I think we're all largely sitting on my fence and quite rightly so, if anything I may be over-egging things at this stage, time will tell of course.

If this were a game, in terms of expectancy of SNOW, so far it's Jackone and gottolovethisweather - 2 AWD and Mark Parsons - 2 according to my match analysis

Anyway, enough of this, I'm off out for a beer and chinese around my mate's house.

Edited February 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[J10]

Comparing the thicknesses with the snow risk charts would suggest the potential for snowfall is better than I first thought, so apologies again GLTW for jumping the gun!

No need for any apologies at all, there does appear to be a bit a mismatch between thicknesses and some of the other indicators more especially ground temps.

The sub 519 dam thicknesses are extremely conducive to snowfall, whereas 1295m is good for snowfall, but by no means as conclusive.

While subzero dewpoints are also positive, and for a time 850Hpa are around -6 to -7c.

So early on Tuesday, to me there seems decent potential for wintry/snow showers. Less so during the late afternoon/evening, and increasing again into Wednesday. But you all know your local area, and local variations will obviously come into play.

[Dave Kightley]

Met office do offer a wintry mix on Tuesday in my local area. Looks a cold week ahead with ECM taking it to the next level which is good to see.

[jtay]

Evenin' all,

Lovely clear day today. Chilly, bit of a breeze, but we could do with a few more like that please.

Dragged away from the rugby by a half decent sunset earlier.

Not for long though.

Edited February 2, 2013 by jtay

[Dave Kightley]

By the end of 2013 I hope to hear its been another crazy year weather wise for an extreme cold and snowy February and March ESP in the South West and a hot dry summer. Scorcher of a year.

[festivalking]

If your after cold/snow then you really want to start praying the latest ECM verifies;

Heights to our north building, and a cold north easterly setting in with a Euro trough. Rather chilly;

These were the sort of charts I was hoping to see mid-late February, not quite this early. IMO, tonight's model output is rather pleasing if your after wintry weather. Possible wintriness on elevated areas midweek followed by possible snowfall next weekend. Remaining below average all week.

Wowser potential for a great week of cold weather. Sods law I'm up near the isle of skye mid week onwards, so will miss most of it. Remember the west coast of scotland is just as mild as devon and cornwall! MInd you the trip through the highlands could be interesting

[offerman]

Question for I.F,

Hi Ian, is ECM more accurate than gfs and should i be using this for cold weather predictions. Does history have better ratios for ecm.

Thanks.

[dec10snow]

Question for I.F,

Hi Ian, is ECM more accurate than gfs and should i be using this for cold weather predictions. Does history have better ratios for ecm.

Thanks.

I know that you have aimed this at Ian, but one thing I will say, is that the GFS is usually too eager to bring Atlantic flows in, as soon as it gets into FI. On the flipside, the ECM seems to go more OTT with the cold out in FI. I know this isn't really any sort of answer you were looking for, but I hope it helped