Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Ian Brown]

Not sure GFS or UKMO are quite on board just yet

They are both the same as each other to my eye and are we are not going to get anything decent if those charts verify.

[Tom Jarvis]

gfs is just lol moves the pv to just north of scotland

lets see what it has planned for us then

[MR EXTREMES]

The anomalies from the 00z ECM/GFS ensembles for day Day 8 -T192hrs are really quite similar.

Note the bulk of the lower heights pushed towards the Pacific side of the pole creating the weakness in the vortex to our north.

A solid signal for height rises towards Svalbard and a European trough.

A cold setup with mean uppers around -2to -5C.

So although there are some surface differences to be resolved around T144hrs the outcome shows a block of cold air near the UK following this weeks Arctic incursion.

indeed striking how the same they are and the ukmo dont look bad at t144 with the next few frames if it went out that far looks like a northeast flow setting up.

the gfs does certainly look like its back tracking different evolution and perhaps more complicated but still the trend there well done to those who stuck the roller coaster out and backed the other models simple answer is the gfs is a very progressive model.

[bradymk]

Labelled in black is where my interest lies!

Surely with a mid atlantic ridge, that area of LP is just going to move north east.

[mcweather]

Good too see see such great run to run consistency on the gfs

It reminds me of the great consistency it showed in going for the wrong outcome in the run up to the last cold spell.

[Snowman.]

UKMO is getting there.

ECM

Also last thing this forum needs is a massive U turn in the 12z ECM.

If the ECM is right then that model will be cherished every winter.

I can also say that this Isn't normal.

Edited February 3, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[snowmadchrisuk]

They are both the same as each other to my eye and are we are not going to get anything decent if those charts verify.

The GFS has a much weaker P/V and angled further North , the UKMO has a stronger P/V and it is hard to tell what it is going to do with it , but on the face of it looks like the block would hold. As the bulk of the HIgh sinks (the yellows) It helps push a Wedge NE (light greens) and this is where the interest lies ..

Edited February 3, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[cold snap]

ecm will drop the solution tonight i feel

gfs and ukmo want ger there .there is to much energy in the jet

[Tim Bland]

Not sure why people believe the models are coming together and congratulating the ECM / Steve. Still miles apart in my view at day 10

GFS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php ... Need to select 240hrs on this link

IMO we may see some middle ground in the coming days , tonight's ECM will not be as good as the 00z with less heights over Scandinavia etc

Edited February 3, 2013 by Tim Bland

[MR EXTREMES]

They are both the same as each other to my eye and are we are not going to get anything decent if those charts verify.

here we go again if there the same out to t144 because thats how far the ukmo go then how can u say were not going to get nothing its clear to see the heights building to our northeast at an earlier timeframe from lastnights gfs.

and considering its even earlier than the ecm to show northeastern height rises its a backtrack by the gfs and a step in the right direction and even so this is fi were talking about ian.

[Panayiotis]

Surely with a mid atlantic ridge, that area of LP is just going to move north east.

Exactly, the 00z ECM has the feature and look what it does with it...

Edited February 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

If the ECM is right then that model will be cherished every winter.

Surely it already is, for me, the ECM is always the top model. GFS is only good at northerly setups and toplers. ECM and its ens have always been top dog for me and for many on here probably. It still confuses me how people still view the GFS as the almighty model. However it is still one of the big three models and for that reason we can not dismiss it but the ECM usually dominates and Steve reinforced this with evidence in a post earlier.

ecm will drop the solution tonight i feel

gfs and ukmo want ger there .there is to much energy in the jet

I can't see how you can say this with no evidence. No one knows what the ECM will show. The ECM has shown good consistency and is always better at these situations.

Not sure why people believe the models are coming together and congratulating the ECM / Steve. Still miles apart in my view at day 10

GFS http://www.meteociel...&ech=240&mode=0

ECM ... ... Need to select 240hrs on this link

IMO we may see some middle ground in the coming days , tonight's ECM will not be as good as the 00z with less heights over Scandinavia etc

Irrelevant comparing 240 timeframes if one model is wrong. Plus the GFS low res is pretty useless.

Edited February 3, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ian Brown]

The GFS has a much weaker P/V and angled further North , the UKMO has a stronger P/V and it is hard to tell what it is going to do with it , but on the face of it looks like the block would hold. As the bulk of the HIgh sinks (the yellows) It helps push a Wedge NE (light greens) and this is where the interest lies ..

I don't like either chart. If you forget whatever the GFS goes onto show, the whole thing is too far East. We need either the jet to dive SE over the UK or the pattern backed sufficiently West for a link up of heights between the Atlantic and to the North - and neither, IMO are going to happen from those T144 charts.

[Ian Brown]

here we go again if there the same out to t144 because thats how far the ukmo go then how can u say were not going to get nothing its clear to see the heights building to our northeast at an earlier timeframe from lastnights gfs.

and considering its even earlier than the ecm to show northeastern height rises its a backtrack by the gfs and a step in the right direction and even so this is fi were talking about ian.

What is going to stop the jet to the North and the Azores high edging East ? The heights arn't strong enough. I'm not saying the jet is going to blast thru Northern scandi but that going forward from those charts, the UK is not going to be on the cold side of the PFJ and we would be under weak Atlantic influence.

[mcweather]

I don't like either chart. If you forget whatever the GFS goes onto show, the whole thing is too far East. We need either the jet to dive SE over the UK or the pattern backed sufficiently West for a link up of heights between the Atlantic and to the North - and neither, IMO are going to happen from those T144 charts.

I believe you were saying something very similar in advance of the last cold spell Ian

[Panayiotis]

Not sure why people believe the models are coming together and congratulating the ECM / Steve. Still miles apart in my view at day 10

GFS http://www.meteociel...&ech=240&mode=0

ECM ... ... Need to select 240hrs on this link

IMO we may see some middle ground in the coming days , tonight's ECM will not be as good as the 00z with less heights over Scandinavia etc

Day 10? When are they ever close at that range?

[Tim Bland]

Surely it already is, for me, the ECM is always the top model. GFS is only good at northerly setups and toplers. ECM and its ens have always been top dog for me and for many on here probably. It still confuses me how people still view the GFS as the almighty model. However it is still one of the big three models and for that reason we can not dismiss it but the ECM usually dominates and Steve reinforced this with evidence in a post earlier.

The official stats show that the GFS is the no1 performing model in the northern hemisphere. It has an easterly bias for our neck of the woods but is still a good model and respected worldwide. Until the GFS buys it, I don't Im Afraid

[Jason H]

The official stats show that the GFS is the no1 performing model in the northern hemisphere. It has an easterly bias for our neck of the woods but is still a good model and respected worldwide. Until the GFS buys it, I don't Im Afraid

What does "buy it" mean?

[IDO]

Exactly, the 00z ECM has the feature and look what it does with it...

How ECM gets there I dont know, as the ensembles suggest that the op took the coldest possibility from those frames you show:

The setup still looks like the Atlantic will win, and GFS along with UKMO (based on UKMO 10-15 days from IF) look like going that way. We will know shortly...

The GFS in FI is a winter killer.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

What does "buy it" mean?

I think he is refering to the GFS showing the easterly as shown by the ECM.

[Mucka]

Not sure why people believe the models are coming together and congratulating the ECM / Steve. Still miles apart in my view at day 10

GFS http://www.meteociel...&ech=240&mode=0

ECM http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

Six of one, half a dozen of the other based on today]s output so far. The ECM has moved toward GFS for the first time this morning though obviously still much better but the GFS is still making corrections as well. UKMO is hard to gauge because the important part of the run has only just come into range but thus far it is moving the trough away too quickly to get the required "squeeze" and amplification of the pattern though it is not a million miles away.

What would be unexpected is for tonights ECM to move back toward the eye candy of yesterday with the trough much closer to the SE and the Azores high a good deal further West with associated ridge.

Hopefully it will come up with something similar to this morning but I fear any further corrections could be East rather than West. If it does defy expectation though there may be some head scratching at MetO HQ because their latest forecast essentially dismisses last few ECM operational runs.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Mucka

[bradymk]

The official stats show that the GFS is the no1 performing model in the northern hemisphere. It has an easterly bias for our neck of the woods but is still a good model and respected worldwide. Until the GFS buys it, I don't Im Afraid

a fair point, and as its still a top performer we can not dismiss it however its only statistically the best performer for the pattern we have had the last two weeks. Just because its the top performer over the last two weeks (which is a completely different pattern) we can not say its going to be the best for the next week. It really depends on the pattern and for me, ECM has always been better in this situation and has been very consistent. However it may still be consistently wrong. Also if the ECM does water down the pattern slightly, it does NOT mean that the GFS has performed better. Edited February 3, 2013 by bradythemole

[Barry12]

Look's like Spring will arrive by mid February if the GFS is anything to go by, the ECM is going to do a U-turn I feel.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Barry95

[mcweather]

The official stats show that the GFS is the no1 performing model in the northern hemisphere. It has an easterly bias for our neck of the woods but is still a good model and respected worldwide. Until the GFS buys it, I don't Im Afraid

I think the problem is Tim, that those of us who have been model watching for a long time have noticed how a great many of the cold spells of recent years have been picked up by the ECM and Meto with the GFS nearly always having to backtrack from its eastward biased over progressive stance . It seems on a great many occassions to have to be dragged kicking and screaming like a toddler having a tanturm into recognising a cold scenario.

Sure it nearly always comes on board but its lack of run to run consistency in advance of cold spells is palpable.

[Tim Bland]

What does "buy it" mean?

I don't buy a deep freeze next week with easterly winds. IMO the outlook is for a week Atlantic front next weekend then back to a NW flow with wintry showers. Many people south of Birmingham are unlikely to see anything realy wintry appart from the odd flurry in the next 10 days