Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[DEYS(Kent)]

Let's wait and see what verifies before the medal ceremony. Of course, I'd love ECM to be on the money but let's not jump the gun. :-D

[Stu_London]

144!!

That one Easterly going bristol's up if ever I have seen one

[Mucka]

Let's wait and see what verifies before the medal ceremony. Of course, I'd love ECM to be on the money but let's not jump the gun. :-D

Quite but it is encouraging that it hasn't corrected further East at all from this morning which was a concern, for me at least.

I said the other day we would know Monday evening and that is how it is shaping up.

I would love to see a positive adjustment on the UKMO tomorrow morning.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Mucka

[A.J]

remember folks, this is the Model Output Discussion, not a 'Member Appreciation Thread'....by all means, use the 'Like' button where appropriate, but let's keep it on topic eh?

[Tim Bland]

A slight correction east from ECM again..if it does that twice a day for the next few days then.....

[Stu_London]

A slight correction east from ECM again..if it does that twice a day for the next few days then.....

we will have North Westerlies by the time we get to +0

[cold snap]

Epic ECM at 144 deep cold charging wes

Dare I say it but I think 168 will be brutal cold going west

Edited February 3, 2013 by cold snap

[SMU]

A slight correction east from ECM again..if it does that twice a day for the next few days then.....

Not to be homing in on your posts today but the ECM is identical if not a tad better at 144 that the 144 of the 00z. certainly no eastward correction, also the atlantic shortwave at 144 is alligned on the exact same track as the 00z was at 168, obviously not quite at the same location though-

12z 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020312/ECH1-144.GIF?03-0

00z 168- remember there is 12 hours lag to factor in

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013020300/ECH1-168.GIF?00

S

Edited February 3, 2013 by Steve Murr

[ChartViewer]

Wowwwwww

[chris55]

That one Easterly going bristol's up if ever I have seen one

The easterly should build once the trough disrupts to the west and south!! .

[Captain Shortwave]

To all the nay-sayer

remember

If GFS corrects slightly west each time then...........

Just saying

Oh T168 - err...........epic?

Edited February 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

A slight correction east from ECM again..if it does that twice a day for the next few days then.....

It hasn't backed east at all. If you compare to the 0z it's actually backed further west?

[shaky]

Any comments steve on the 144 hour chart!!or have you rested your case??ðŸ˜

[Yarmy]

we will have North Westerlies by the time we get to +0

Are we forecasting what the models will do or looking at what the models are forecasting?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Steve Murr snowfest at 168!!!!!!!!!!

[chris55]

EPIC 168 for the westcountry!!!

[Mucka]

Setting up a pattern with sliders very reminiscent of our recent spell except it looks as though the high will get reinforced.

[Weathizard]

Unbelievable at 168, stunning and rock solid from the ECM something has to give soon?

[Ice Day]

Hmmmm, nice!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020312/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0

Awsome chart- snow for the SW & some of the central belt, upper air cold pool in the North sea.

S

[bluearmy]

We should see more ens members crossing over and sharpening the mean.

[bradymk]

You can not fault ECM consistency here. Its ENS may not be in total agreement but the op is solid and has been for 5 runs.

Edited February 3, 2013 by bradythemole

[Tim Bland]

Not to be homing in on your posts today but the ECM is identical if not a tad better at 144 that the 144 of the 00z. certainly no eastward correction, also the atlantic shortwave at 144 is alligned on the exact same track as the 00z was at 168, obviously not quite at the same location though-

12z 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020312/ECH1-144.GIF?03-0

00z 168- remember there is 12 hours lag to factor in

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013020300/ECH1-168.GIF?00

S

Hat off Steve your right, it looked like an eastward correction to me at first glance. I have to say I'm starting to come round. Can't believe the ECM has stuck to its guns on so many runs now! I will either love or hate the ECM in a few days time. Is there a middle ground between the GFS and ECM? I'm struggling to see what it would look like?

[Tom Jarvis]

i think there will be a steve murr boom coming

[MR EXTREMES]

well it was an hour ago i said i was on the fence i just fell off,

come back on to pay the ecm a visit absolutely stunning and its showing this trend much earlier than lastnights aswell incredible.