Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Panayiotis]

Harsh, IB this year has given good analysis IMO. Not always what some want to here but if he sees the Atlantic winning then he is entitled to say. If you read his last posts you will see his reasoning if you can get passed the fact that he is not ramping cold which many don't like.

Yes by all means he is entitled to say if the Atlantic is winning but what evidence is he giving?

[Dexter29]

nice fax at 48hrs

and 60hrs

and 72hrs

It's a shame there will be a wedge of mild uppers coming down the country Wednesday as this is when there is more ppn.. Typical!

As TV weather forecasts and all models suggest. Sleet at best moving down with that front Wednesday!

[nick sussex]

I see the ECM love in continues unabated in here which ignores the chasm between the models upstream at 144hrs.

Earlier NOAA didn't think much of the ECM's view of that deep low in the eastern USA and since this is important for the troughing near the UK then I'd advise people to wait for a resolution before celebrating too much.

The ECM has a deep nor'easter and more amplified pattern the rest have a much weaker feature and are flatter.

[chionomaniac]

so for a less experienced weather fanatic like myself what is the likely outcome or were are we heading?

We are heading into the battleground zone where west airmass meets east airmass. I don't think that anyone can categorically state at this point which airmass is going to win after day 6. We can say that with the Atlantic airmass being cooler than average that we won't be seeing much in the way of above average temps. In fact I suspect that the NW will have the Atlantic airmass dominate and the SE will have the continental airmass dominate. It's comfy on this fence for a day or two.

[london-snow]

Ignore ECM...METO will and they are the professionals...Or be let down when the eastily does not happen.

We are in this thread to ' Discuss ' what each model is showing.

As in regards to the METO or pro tweeters then they change there mind often. If they was 100% accurate then why do they update there outlook daily?

Answer = Because they are never 100% accurate beyond a certain period are they.

Edited February 3, 2013 by chionomaniac
removed personal comments

[Katiewombat]

Please can someone post me a few charts with a dummies explanation what they are and what they mean. My ignorance had finally got the better of me. Time to start learning :-)

Many thanks

Kx

[Methuselah]

Cut out the personal stuff!!!

[Froze were the Days]

He may well agree and why should people be put on the spot when they have asked a perfectly sensible question?

I love what the ECM is showing but I think it will be a watered down version come t0. A hunch more than anything else. If UKMO and GFS was more bullish then it would help my confidence but its not there and nor is the meto. They could come on board but they are not yet.

Yep have to agree, all the cold spells have been 'watered' down to a degree this winter or have collapsed from some of the runs that ECM has shown at times and also the GFS back in early December, this doesn't mean this will too but the probability of more models against building NE heights to those that do = Halfway house scenario (with HP ridging over the UK) - let's face it the majority of the country got pretty lucky from 'weak flabby' heights to the NE last month.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[ChartViewer]

Cut out the personal stuff!!!

You lot were lucky today

[Ian Brown]

Oh Ian:

Ian Brown, on 09 January 2013 - 22:15 , said:

I would think so, but any of us who have seen the previous failures will be logging on in the morning knowing what to expect...

In fact you can trawl any number of posts from you on the 9th Jan, doesn't matter what is showing, you will call the opposite. In fact in one post you cite the GFS having 4 runs depicting the behaviour of the shortwave, you're happy to take that as gospel, but in this situation ignore the ECM sticking to it's guns for 6 runs. Its difficult to take you seriously!

I admit to being wrong with regard to that event - I was wrongly backing the GFS largely based on previous cold spell failures. To say the ECM is sticking to it's guns is only true to the extent that it has on the cold side of the PFJ - the actual synoptics are changing run to run - as they are on the GFS.

I've just seen enough over the years to strongly suggest that there will not be a 'proper' easterly - which to me is a build of height to the North with the 552 line extended towards Iceland and a HP belt to the North/North East stretching West. We may get low pressure diving SE with us still on the cold side for a time but I think the ECM shows the very best we could get out of the uncertainty up to day 8.

[MR EXTREMES]

It's a shame there will be a wedge of mild uppers coming down the country Wednesday as this is when there is more ppn.. Typical!

As TV weather forecasts and all models suggest. Sleet at best moving down with that front Wednesday!

id of thought there very conductive of snowfall 528 dam across the country in 24 to 36 hrs then as winds swing round from the north more of the country could well get something out of this.

not had a northerly for sometime.

[tinybill]

country a cold week ahead

[Gary_R_Walker]

Sorry but this is the met office day 6-15 update...... so not sure if you have answered the post that was put to you.

I was attempting to be a little tongue in cheek, but fair enough here is my forecast from dissecting "all the models output."

Average temperature for February. Occasional snow showers, occasional rain showers. Windy at times, less windy at other times. NO BEAST FROM THE EAST. Brief northerly, maybe a week giving some sleety showers to the east. I have nailed my colours to the mast, anyone want to give their forecast for the first half of February from what they see in the models?

[Methuselah]

You lot were lucky today

We've another walkover in couple of weeks, I understand??

So, what's the 18Z got in store: Snowmageddon or Toymageddon?

[ChartViewer]

I was attempting to be a little tongue in cheek, but fair enough here is my forecast from dissecting "all the models output."

Average temperature for February. Occasional snow showers, occasional rain showers. Windy at times, less windy at other times. NO BEAST FROM THE EAST. Brief northerly, maybe a week giving some sleety showers to the east. I have nailed my colours to the mast, anyone want to give their forecast for the first half of February from what they see in the models?

Blimey risky forecast that...1 to 50 on id say ...you a bookie?

We've another walkover in couple of weeks, I understand??

So, what's the 18Z got in store: Snowmageddon or Toymageddon?

Im going for the ECM mate...pub run knocking the ale back and deciding its got to back the ECM 12Z....Snowmageddon for me....why not... ...Springs round the corner and i love snow!

Edited February 3, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Timmytour]

Yes by all means he is entitled to say if the Atlantic is winning but what evidence is he giving?

Well...i think anyone giving precedence to the "evidence" of the GFS runs is being knocked down at the moment.

i really really really hope the ECM verifies

I know it won't

I'd love to think t will be closer to the mark than the GFS, but without the GFS in the same place (although even it it were it would guarantee nothing) I can't get excited or optimistic about what lies ahead.

At the moment I'm still expecting a week very much in line with Gibbo's GFS summary and suspect that by the next weekend the trafiic on here wil be back down to pages per day rather than pages per hour. I'm not fussed about being wrong, or being called wrong....i hope to God I am!

I'm someone who usually waves the flag big time for an upcoming cold spell and was doing so last weekend convinced the GFS was going to give me some fruit ready to pick. i can't provide "evidence" of why I favour the GFS solution over the ECM this time around. And i don't take every GFS run at face value...but i do always feel like it gives me a sense of what's coming and i don't get any sense that a Beast From the East is imminent.

[swfc]

Bit suprised at next weeks temps on countryfile .Showing slightly below average in a direct northerly for the north of england?.Anyway the middle ground between gfs and ecm is still the way for me and even more importantly the ukmo

[A.J]

I was attempting to be a little tongue in cheek, but fair enough here is my forecast from dissecting "all the models output."

Average temperature for February. Occasional snow showers, occasional rain showers. Windy at times, less windy at other times. NO BEAST FROM THE EAST. Brief northerly, maybe a week giving some sleety showers to the east. I have nailed my colours to the mast, anyone want to give their forecast for the first half of February from what they see in the models?

Sure....it'll rain or snow...it'll be cold or mild, it'll be breezy or calm.......nailed on or what? .....

Joking aside, fair play for posting a forecast based on today's output.....but "brief northerly"?....."maybe a week"?......hmm....those few words define the term 'Contradiction'

I presume you didn't take the 12z ECM into consideration when making your forecast?

[Timmytour]

You lot were lucky today

I'd had a look at all the models yesterday and, even at T+24, i couldn't see any signs of precipitation over the midlands...so I was surprised to see it spitting

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Bit suprised at next weeks temps on countryfile .Showing slightly below average in a direct northerly for the north of england?.Anyway the middle ground between gfs and ecm is still the way for me and even more importantly the ukmo

Northerlies never as cold as Easterlies, ENE ESE, because of long sea track, Im not a fan of northerlies, much prefer E'lys

temps in S England do look to be around 6C max, all week, but frosty nights when skies clear, winds fall light

[Gary_R_Walker]

Sure....it'll rain or snow...it'll be cold or mild, it'll be breezy or calm.......nailed on or what? .....

Joking aside, fair play for posting a forecast based on today's output.....but "brief northerly"?....."maybe a week"?......hmm....those few words define the term 'Contradiction'

I presume you didn't take the 12z ECM into consideration when making your forecast?

ECM..........remember..............December. No I didn't.

[Froze were the Days]

You have to ask yourself how many times has the ECM at about 144z-196z been fairly accurate in blocking circumstances and you'd probably find not much, so that's why I'm taking all the recent runs with a dose of salts. It would be a big koo for the model come next monday if we have a slider into the SW and cold advecting west from the continent. But I doubt it.

Looking purely at what the ECM model is showing of course.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[chris55]

I was attempting to be a little tongue in cheek, but fair enough here is my forecast from dissecting "all the models output."

Average temperature for February. Occasional snow showers, occasional rain showers. Windy at times, less windy at other times. NO BEAST FROM THE EAST. Brief northerly, maybe a week giving some sleety showers to the east. I have nailed my colours to the mast, anyone want to give their forecast for the first half of February from what they see in the models?

It's very difficult to give an accurate forecast for the first half of Feb with model divergence as it is, and at day 5+ accurate forecasts in general are not easy. All we can do is take each days data as we see it and go from there.

As it stands tonight we have the ECM model (and it's ensemble mean to an extent) showing a continuation of the cold week we have coming up, with things turning progressively colder as we head into the weekend and beyond.

On the other hand we have the GFS showing the Atlantic influence edging far enough east to put us in a more westerly type flow.

So even with GFSs easterly bias, certainty for the weekend is low, either way, basically more runs are needed. So anyone claiming victory for an easterly or westerly for the weekend and beyond is calling things to early.

We will know more as the week progresses.

Edited February 3, 2013 by chris55

[Frosty.]

Just need a bit of patience, those slightly below average temps early in the week will fall a few degrees by midweek when the frosts become more widespread, quite a few troughs on the fax charts with a mix of sleet and maybe wet snow depending on elevation, probably northern and eastern scotland and ne england bordering the north sea will have the heaviest snow in the next 5 days as they do best in a straight northerly.

[swfc]

Northerlies never as cold as Easterlies, ENE ESE, because of long sea track, Im not a fan of northerlies, much prefer E'lys

temps in S England do look to be around 6C max, all week, but frosty nights when skies clear, winds fall light

yes i understand the synoptics side of it but the temps for feb still look on the high side to be fair.Anyway heres hoping for one more last wintry spell before months end