Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Ian Brown]

Simple.

The ECM is consistently showing the E,ly and thankfully is the most accurate model based on verification stats. The GFS is laughed at because this model has performed poorly for much of the winter to be honest.

Having said this my confidence of the ECM being correct stands at about 70%. I need the UKMO to trend similar for this to rise to 90%.

Dave it's so marginal in terms of pressure differences that I would have low confidence in the ECM verifying at day 7, bearing in mind what the other models show I would put the percentage chance at around 15%. You know yourself that we have to have margins for error when looking at easterlies post day 4/5 and here we have none.

[bobbydog]

personally, i'll be viewing the output with a pinch of salt for now. i think the ECM is taking quite a big step from this-

to this-

i'm always wary unless there is strong, cross-model agreement of a solid scenario, with the least impressive model still showing a scenario we would be more than happy with.

Edited February 3, 2013 by bobbydog

[A.J]

So.......back in 2011, London and the Sarf East got 'El Gordo'.........last June the Midlands got 'El Brumo'.........I presuming the 12z ECM leads to the whole country having a good chance of getting 'El Snowmageddono' ?

[MR EXTREMES]

It's highly tenuous Fred, and I would not call the height rise shown a 'retrograde'. There are just enough heights to the North to send that system SE on this run.

well look at the heights on the last cold spell really was nothing to amazing but looking likely this height rise could well be more robust if the ecm is correct im still a little nervous but quietly confident because of its consistent runs and the fact the other models dont totally go against the ecm.

[cooling climate]

is it possible this could be a lag from the ssw event.

because the met office seemed confident a little while ago that feb could well see the effects of this.

and sunspot numbers have declined infact the sun has been quiet for a fair few weeks now.

Obviously you never read the post I made not long ago or the posts that I have made over the

last 7-10 days but personally yes I believe it has everything to do with the SSW and that the

effects will continue through the whole month of February.

[Gary_R_Walker]

Please tell us Gary, what do you see from todays outputs ? would be very interested to know, Thanks.

Remaining cold on Friday 8th February, but less windy than the previous few days. Still some wintry showers near the east coast, and some western parts perhaps cloudier with a little rain or hill snow. Brighter elsewhere after a frosty start. A similar set-up continues through Saturday and Sunday. During the following week some bands of cloud and rain will spread slowly eastwards across the UK, with some snow on hills, and possibly also temporarily to lower levels in the east. Turning less cold in the west. Later next week onwards into the following weekend some bright spells are expected, but also some unsettled weather at times, most likely to the north and west where any showers may turn wintry at times. Temperatures then close to or just below average.

Or something similar.

[Biggin]

Look's like Spring will arrive by mid February if the GFS is anything to go by, the ECM is going to do a U-turn I feel.

Sorry but you base this on what ?? Is there a limit to the ignore people button ??

[Mair Snaw]

Remaining cold on Friday 8th February, but less windy than the previous few days. Still some wintry showers near the east coast, and some western parts perhaps cloudier with a little rain or hill snow. Brighter elsewhere after a frosty start. A similar set-up continues through Saturday and Sunday. During the following week some bands of cloud and rain will spread slowly eastwards across the UK, with some snow on hills, and possibly also temporarily to lower levels in the east. Turning less cold in the west. Later next week onwards into the following weekend some bright spells are expected, but also some unsettled weather at times, most likely to the north and west where any showers may turn wintry at times. Temperatures then close to or just below average.

Or something similar.

Sorry but this is the met office day 6-15 update...... so not sure if you have answered the post that was put to you.

Edited February 3, 2013 by bigsnow

[Damp and dreary]

Remaining cold on Friday 8th February, but less windy than the previous few days. Still some wintry showers near the east coast, and some western parts perhaps cloudier with a little rain or hill snow. Brighter elsewhere after a frosty start. A similar set-up continues through Saturday and Sunday. During the following week some bands of cloud and rain will spread slowly eastwards across the UK, with some snow on hills, and possibly also temporarily to lower levels in the east. Turning less cold in the west. Later next week onwards into the following weekend some bright spells are expected, but also some unsettled weather at times, most likely to the north and west where any showers may turn wintry at times. Temperatures then close to or just below average.

Or something similar.

Isnt this the Met office update?!

Hardly your own forcast matey!

[chionomaniac]

Another good ECM tonight for the cold lovers amongst us.

For me its all down to the position of the upper trough.

Too far east and the cold heads that way as well.

Here is a comparison of the upper trough (at 100 hPA) on the ECM and GFS. Wouldn't it be nice to see the UKMO!

ECM

GFS

Last time the UKMO took the lead and my advice is to follow that again. It has been very consistent for the UK in dealing with the borderline potential all through the last month and I will stick with it.

The reality is that the upper trough will probably be modelled somewhere in between the GFS and ECM (what the UKMO is depicting from as much as we can ascertain upto T+144).

Look at the angle of the ridges on the following 3 T+144 charts. The ECM is the most westward and vertical, the GFS the most eastward and least vertical and the UKMO more a halfway house.

We always see the models at the extremes move closer to the mean as T+0 gets closer and there is no reason to suggest otherwise now.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the latest review of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Sunday February 3rd 2013.

All models agree on a pattern for the coming working week with the current breezy, relatively mild and damp conditions becoming replaced by a cooler and more showery WNW flow tomorrow, The showers will affect mostly the NW tomorrow but as the wind increases and colder and colder air digs in the showers will develop much more widely tomorrow night turning to snow readily in the NW and on hills elsewhere by Tuesday morning when NW areas are at risk of severe gales and blizzards at times. The very wintry showery theme covers all areas through Tuesday and then as winds veer Northerly and start to decrease over Wednesday and Thursday frosts will develop at night with snow showers draped around Northern, Western and Eastern coasts. Through Thursday and Friday the Northerly flow will weaken further as an Atlantic trough attempts to bring less cold air in to the West with some rain and hill snow possible here later.

GFS then shows a ridge of High pressure collapsing SE over the UK at the end of the working week with milder SW winds taking control through the weekend with a band of rain moving steadily East over the UK. Next week shows the Atlantic taking full control in association with Low pressure to the North with spells of rain and showers for all in a strong Westerly breeze.

The GFS Ensembles show a colder spell through the coming week before things become less cold with uppers reaching the seasonal norm under a rejuvenated Atlantic. Rain will pick up in frequency during the second week.

The Jet Stream shows the flow continues to drive SE over the UK for the coming days before the flow weakens at the weekend briefly before becoming reinvigorated from the West late in the weekend.

UKMO for midday on Saturday shows receding away East over Europe leaving a void of pressure over Scandinavia. A disrupting trough is shown moving in towards the West bringing outbreaks of rain and hill snow into the West while the East looks like staying cold and dry.

ECM shows Low pressure to the East on Friday with a ridge of High pressure following a trough South which could bring a spell of rain and hill snow on Thursday before snow showers continue in the extreme East. Thereafter an Atlantic trough approaching the West disrupts and forms a Low centre down to the SW with the risk of a spell of possibly disruptive snow for SW Britain should it verify before introducing an Easterly flow as it moves on down into France. Pressure then rises down from the NE and brings a cold and settled 24 hours or so before the last frame of the run shows the Atlantic eventually making its attack at the UK bringing rain slowly across the UK in somewhat less cold air.

In Summary tonight there is still some indecision between the models of how to move things along following the Northerly this week. In overall terms the pendulum has shifted slightly back towards the Atlantic winning the battle despite ECM showing a mouthwatering snow scenario for the SW late next weekend. GFS tonight shows an Atlantic domination from the weekend with ECM eventually showing the Atlantic pushing into the UK by the end of the run with winds turning to a milder South or SW with any cold weather restricted to the far NE.

[Ali1977]

Ignore ECM...METO will and they are the professionals...Or be let down when the eastily does not happen.

[Froze were the Days]

Pow! Take that GFS, Kaboom, take that the ECM downgrade callers.....very very nice. Shows the RJS retrograde in full flow

BFTP

lol! - that's just funny your getting very excited over 1 model and it is still knife edge stuff! more models against than with the cold spell (unfortunately). Both GFS and UKMO are similar to a degree, as always we won't know until about 72hrs out.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[Frosty.]

There is really only one word to describe this chart from tonight's Ecm 12z and that is :-

S P E C T A C U L A R

[bradymk]

Ignore ECM...METO will and they are the professionals...Or be let down when the eastily does not happen.

so what shall we look at then because they also do not look at GFS past day 6?

[That ECM]

Sorry but this is the met office day 6-15 update...... so not sure if you have answered to post that was put to you.

He may well agree and why should people be put on the spot when they have asked a perfectly sensible question?

I love what the ECM is showing but I think it will be a watered down version come t0. A hunch more than anything else. If UKMO and GFS was more bullish then it would help my confidence but its not there and nor is the meto. They could come on board but they are not yet.

[A.J]

Ignore ECM...METO will and they are the professionals...Or be let down when the eastily does not happen.

Actually, they won't ignore the 12z ECM output, it will be analyzed very carefully indeed and any changes to their forecasts will be made as appropriate.........You'll probably find that it's the GFS post T144 that is ignored!

Edited February 3, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[MR EXTREMES]

Another good ECM tonight for the cold lovers amongst us.

For me its all down to the position of the upper trough.

Too far east and the cold heads that way as well.

Here is a comparison of the upper trough (at 100 hPA) on the ECM and GFS. Wouldn't it be nice to see the UKMO!

ECM

GFS

Last time the UKMO took the lead and my advice is to follow that again. It has been very consistent for the UK in dealing with the borderline potential all through the last month and I will stick with it.

The reality is that the upper trough will probably be modelled somewhere in between the GFS and ECM (what the UKMO is depicting from as much as we can ascertain upto T+144).

Look at the angle of the ridges on the following 3 T+144 charts. The ECM is the most westward and vertical, the GFS the most eastward and least vertical and the UKMO more a halfway house.

We always see the models at the extremes move closer to the mean as T+0 gets closer and there is no reason to suggest otherwise now.

so for a less experienced weather fanatic like myself what is the likely outcome or were are we heading?

[Panayiotis]

Oh Ian:

Ian Brown, on 09 January 2013 - 22:15 , said:

I would think so, but any of us who have seen the previous failures will be logging on in the morning knowing what to expect...

In fact you can trawl any number of posts from you on the 9th Jan, doesn't matter what is showing, you will call the opposite. In fact in one post you cite the GFS having 4 runs depicting the behaviour of the shortwave, you're happy to take that as gospel, but in this situation ignore the ECM sticking to it's guns for 6 runs.Its difficult to take you seriously!

Yes in the last cold spell he was going for the Atlantic to win/mild etc but when the cold spell came, he went back into a little shell and stopped posting, and now look, we are back in a similar situation and he has started posting again its like hes here just to annoy us! If he put some more reasoning behind his posts and would be more than happy to listen to him!

As for the ECM there must be a firm signal for heights to the NE and a easterly flow, it been showing this for 6 consecutive runs now, and the 00z did have support from the ensembles.

Whereas the GFS has been consistently changing....and to me that suggests it doesnt have the pattern right.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mair Snaw]

He may well agree and why should people be put on the spot when they have asked a perfectly sensible question?

I love what the ECM is showing but I think it will be a watered down version come t0. A hunch more than anything else. If UKMO and GFS was more bullish then it would help my confidence but its not there and nor is the meto. They could come on board but they are not yet.

He was asked his thoughts going forward, not what the met office think, thats all im pointing out....

I agree that if the ECM does indeed come into t72 then this place will go nuts, but i would be happier if other models were closer to the ECM solution, even so a watered down version would still be a hell of a lot better than most winters of the 90's and upto 2008.

[MR EXTREMES]

nice fax at 48hrs

and 60hrs

and 72hrs

[That ECM]

Yes in the last cold spell he was going for the Atlantic to win/mild etc but when the cold spell came, he went back into a little shell and stopped posting, and now look, we are back in a similar situation and he has started posting again its like hes here just to annoy us! If he put some more reasoning behind his posts and would be more than happy to listen to him!

Harsh, IB this year has given good analysis IMO. Not always what some want to here but if he sees the Atlantic winning then he is entitled to say. If you read his last posts you will see his reasoning if you can get passed the fact that he is not ramping cold which many don't like.

[J10]

We always see the models at the extremes move closer to the mean as T+0 gets closer and there is no reason to suggest otherwise now.

These charts remind me in a way of the build up to the last major snow event on the Friday 18th Jan, when winds were originally forecast to be SW and ended up being SE, IMO I am not convinced we will have a long lasting easterly but some sort of snow event aka ECM is not out of the question.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Jackone

[Captain Shortwave]

I feel the key thing here is that ECM has stuck which means we have pretty much gone 24 hours without the ecm op diluting. Whilst GFS has slowly backtracked. This in itself has increased the chance of a prolonged spell by quite a lot tonight.

[ChartViewer]

Bless the CMA T120 its trying.....