Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[cold snap]

192, cold and unstable. No super cold uppers but plenty cold enough for snow.

-8 uppers can't complain really

If there is ppn around it will be 100 % snow

[Frosty.]

Severe weather for northern and western scotland tomorrow with 70-80 mph gusts and heavy, squally hit and miss snow showers, some areas seeing 5-10cm accumulations, the areas with the most frequent snow showers having 20 cm which is about 8 inches and also severe drifting, so temporary blizzard conditions up north, even northern england and n.ireland are in the firing line for more frequent wintry showers later with temps of 4c. Southern england looks fairly sunny tomorrow but by tuesday we should all be in the same boat with strong to gale force NWly winds and frequent wintry showers with blizzards on the hills and mountains of scotland, by midweek it's a straight Northerly with heavy snow showers for n and e scotland and ne and e england, also wintry showers down the west coast and a risk of troughs spreading south with bands of snow/hail showers, frosts also becoming more widespread as the week goes on.

[chris55]

216, remarkable consistency compared to the 00z run.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Pow! Take that GFS, Kaboom, take that the ECM downgrade callers.....very very nice. Shows the RJS retrograde in full flow

BFTP

Edited February 3, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowman.]

Wasn't it yesterday a majority of people was expecting a watered down ECM run?

you cant say that after every run you know.

[cold snap]

Fantastic state of affairs at 216

Locked into bitterly cold weather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM has the pattern a touch further east at day 6 compared to yesterday but is still fine

and showing good consistency,especially at that range.

today.. yesterday..

And the retrogressing block is importantly further north.

BFTP

[TEITS]

Could one of the more experienced weather model watchers explain to me why when a particular model is consistent in showing cold, and possibly snowy conditions arriving for the UK, that models consistency receives great applause from the masses, but when another model shows a consistent less cold outcome it appears to be laughed out of town?

Simple.

The ECM is consistently showing the E,ly and thankfully is the most accurate model based on verification stats. The GFS is laughed at because this model has performed poorly for much of the winter to be honest.

Having said this my confidence of the ECM being correct stands at about 70%. I need the UKMO to trend similar for this to rise to 90%.

[chris55]

Day 10 ends with the Atlantic nudging in from the West, great run overall though.

[MR EXTREMES]

nogaps nice to at t180

[swfc]

on its way out at 240 hrs but still a great run

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM at t240 then has a GFS moment......its day ten though so worry about that if it continues closing in

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

Day 10 ends with the Atlantic nudging in from the West, great run overall though.

and if we could go futher reload from the north east.

[snowice]

I think everyone should remember the end of November/ December last, something similar from the ecm at ths time frame but there was no model agreement.

The ecm backed down severel runs later and the easterly was put on hold! point being cross model agrement is necessary at this time Frame.

we just hope the ecm is right,but we need gfs ukmo to come aboard!

[cooling climate]

Another rock solid run from the ECM number 6 I make it and a forecast made 10 days ago of

colder weather by the end of the first week of February and hopefully back in the Freezer by

around the middle of the month. All due to the second phase of the SSW and the profiles of

its downwellings some three and half weeks ago.

Could still go titicus verticus but I doubt it very much.

[Snowman.]

Day 10 ends with the Atlantic nudging in from the West, great run overall though.

Hardly winning you see heights are still firm north those lows will just spin off into europe.

[Gary_R_Walker]

Simple.

The ECM is consistently showing the E,ly and thankfully is the most accurate model based on verification stats. The GFS is laughed at because this model has performed poorly for much of the winter to be honest.

Having said this my confidence of the ECM being correct stands at about 70%. I need the UKMO to trend similar for this to rise to 90%.

Thanks for the prompt reply. Glad you cleared that up for me because I was beginning to think people were only seeing what they wanted to see, and obviously that wouldn't be very scientific.. Thanks again.

[Mucka]

ECM is far too progressive from 192. If we got to that point the Atlantic wouldn't get in as shown and no way heights to NE subside away SE so quickly. Also there would be more energy forced SE than shown.

On a general note;

A bit too much hero worship in this forum at times and people with short or selective memories but also too many witch hunts when things go wrong.

Let's hope we get a good cold spell anyway.

[shotski]

Thanks for the prompt reply. Glad you cleared that up for me because I was beginning to think people were only seeing what they wanted to see, and obviously that wouldn't be very scientific.. Thanks again.

Please tell us Gary, what do you see from todays outputs ? would be very interested to know, Thanks.

[phil nw.]

Whilst the recent consistency of the ECM is notable it doesn`t mean it will verify as shown.

There are subtle differences between the ECM and the GFS/UKMO at T120hrs in the timing and degree of ridging towards Iceland.

The ECM is keener to hold back the energy disrupting east from the vortex and builds a sharper and earlier height rise and this enables the Euro trough to disrupt that little further west than the other 2.

A small detail of timing as much as anything which should be resolved soon.

[AWD]

Not as good as the ECM, but the JMA also shows weak heights to our north;

Providing possible snowfall for parts of England next weekend;

Before the Azores HP inserts a greater influence;

Pushing the pattern east!

[MR EXTREMES]

is it possible this could be a lag from the ssw event.

because the met office seemed confident a little while ago that feb could well see the effects of this.

and sunspot numbers have declined infact the sun has been quiet for a fair few weeks now.

Edited February 3, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Zenarcher]

I have just checked the ECM and GFS from yesterday and today as expected some changes from both of them but the ECM is much more consistent and the GFS has corrected itself just slightly more towards the ECM.

7th Feb Yesterday from the ECM

And the same day from today's ECM 12z run

The Atlantic low has moved more North on today's run and is slightly weaker but in no way has it taken a step towards the GFS idea of things from yesterday or today.

Lets see what the GFS done on the 7th yesterday

And today it's picked up on the Atlantic low although doesn't position it like the ECM

Now onto the 8th

GFS yesterday just sent energy over our North

Today it's still not really any closer to the ECM but it does show a low around the South of Greenland and better heights to our North

However still large differences here with the ECM

Yesterday

Today

And just to close the post the ECM for the 10th,

What the GFS had yesterday for the 10th

And today still not as good as the ECM but much better than yesterday.

[Ian Brown]

Pow! Take that GFS, Kaboom, take that the ECM downgrade callers.....very very nice. Shows the RJS retrograde in full flow

BFTP

It's highly tenuous Fred, and I would not call the height rise shown a 'retrograde'. There are just enough heights to the North to send that system SE on this run.

[Northern Sky]

I think everyone should remember the end of November/ December last, something similar from the ecm at ths time frame but there was no model agreement.

The ecm backed down severel runs later and the easterly was put on hold! point being cross model agrement is necessary at this time Frame.

we just hope the ecm is right,but we need gfs ukmo to come aboard!

Yes I think you are right to be cautious. However one thing that is perhaps a bit different from then is that I can't remember the ECM being so consistant with its outlook then as it has been for now 6 runs. It is the best model and for it to be barking up the wrong tree for so long would be a big surprise.