Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Katiewombat]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020312/ECH1-120.GIF?03-0

Says it all really.

S

Well the fact you are back to mr positive them Mr prozac is the best forecast I need.

Kx

[cold snap]

Wait for 192 something even better ,

There is no stoping the ECM , it want this pattern and that's it

[snowmadchrisuk]

Oh my god , there is going to be some head scratching at the Met offfice before they issue tomorrows guidance , I don't think anybody expected that from the ECM . just amazing charts .. This all starts at t+48 as there is enough height's in Greenland to start the NE Wedge process ... If ECM does change (which i'm starting to believe it wont) then it will have to be in the next 48 hours ..

Edited February 3, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[snowice]

Unbelievable at 168, stunning and rock solid from the ECM something has to give soon?

Untill all the big 3 ukmo gfs ecm are in agreement most of us in here will wait and see!

Edited February 3, 2013 by snowice

[london-snow]

Had to take a break over the past week for health reasons but am glad i am now back to join you all in the quest for cold part two.

Going by what i have cached up on it seems as if we have another stand off and again i am inclined to put my faith in the ECM over the GFS which in my world is what i call a ' Catch up ' model. In other words & especially when cold weather comes into play it's a model that slowly falls back into line run by run day by day & imo rarely gets the correct pattern beyond d5+. I mention it struggles with cold weather patterns esp those coming from a e-ne component & i say this because nearly all cold spells that has happened from that source has been noted to have one thing in common WESTWARD CORRECTION.

Slowly Slowly ect the ECM will be proved right i feel & the GFS will come crawling inline eventually.

[chris55]

This is a stunning 168 from ECM, large high retrogressing (or ridging) west, channel Low, cold pool just to the east. Brilliant stuff.

Wetter version,

Edited February 3, 2013 by chris55

[SE Blizzards]

ecm will drop the solution tonight i feel

gfs and ukmo want ger there .there is to much energy in the jet

Do you still have the same feeling now??

[SMU]

Hat off Steve your right, it looked like an eastward correction to me at first glance. I have to say I'm starting to come round. Can't believe the ECM has stuck to its guns on so many runs now! I will either love or hate the ECM in a few days time. Is there a middle ground between the GFS and ECM? I'm struggling to see what it would look like?

There is a middle ground that *COULD* spoil the show & thats the low at 144 - 168 makles strong corrections East & slides more SE towards the North sea.- As opposed to the UK

So as it stands large room for eastward corrections to still be safe - large room for westward corrections from the GFS-

S

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

192 holy cow

[Ice Day]

Fill in the missing letters, B _ _ M. Not you Steve!!!!

Oh, and the uppers are rather interesting as well

Edited February 3, 2013 by Ice Day

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020312/ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

Snow for the South & SE- the atlantic brewing up another slider.-

S

[ChartViewer]

Sticking to its guns

[london-snow]

we will have North Westerlies by the time we get to +0

What makes you so certain?

If its the GFS your banking on then that's your opinion however cards on the table the GFS is well known for westward correction when our winter weather comes from a e-ne component.

[cold snap]

Do you still have the same feeling now??

I was wrong

However we still need the other models on board

[Weathizard]

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

192 holy cow

Ineed I was just hoping for the ECM to stick to its guns and it goes and trumps the 0z! Unbelievable Jeff

[shotski]

The next gfs run will leave us none the wiser, however I expect a less impressive cold solution from ECM tomorrow which will begin the climb down with that model. This watering down should then continue on subsequent runs.

Did someone call a taxi for Lord Stratus

[Dexter29]

Fill in the missing letters, B _ _ M. Not you Steve!!!!

But it's 7 days away. This needs to be shown +72

Feet firmly on ground. No "booming" from me

[cold snap]

This will be epic to the end now look at the Atlantic it's lost the battle

Prolonged deep freeze from the ECM **AGAIN**

[DEYS(Kent)]

ECM is great but not worthy of booms I have to say. Plenty there to spoil the evolution. As others have said, we need more of the 51 to support the Op along with other models for me to sit up and take notice...

[Cloud 10]

ECM has the pattern a touch further east at day 6 compared to yesterday but is still fine

and showing good consistency,especially at that range.

today.. yesterday..

[chris55]

192, cold and unstable. No super cold uppers but plenty cold enough for snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

i think even if the ecm backed of abit it still would be fairly cold its very incredible but seeing these charts tonight could be just a dream in two days time as steve said there is apossibility of a spoiler.

[TEITS]

I would really like the 12Z to come off. Whilst I may miss the snow at +168 I would be pleased for members in the W/SW because this would be a classic snow event that potentially causes isolated locations to be cut off. At +192 I would see my snow via convection. I don't even need to see the rest of the run because I know the cold E,ly flow would continue.

[Gary_R_Walker]

Could one of the more experienced weather model watchers explain to me why when a particular model is consistent in showing cold, and possibly snowy conditions arriving for the UK, that models consistency receives great applause from the masses, but when another model shows a consistent less cold outcome it appears to be laughed out of town?

[Ice Day]

But it's 7 days away. This needs to be shown +72

Feet firmly on ground. No "booming" from me

Good for you! Just commenting on the 192, it is the model discussion thread after all!