South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[J10]

Sorry Tony, not impressed by your post at all................

You almost had it nailed, but let yourself down by not using PINK anywhere!!

Fixed for you.

(that one of the cleanest I could find for a family forum.

Seriously thought great post gottolovethisweather

Edited February 6, 2013 by Jackone

[A.J]

yep, seconded......Quality post Tony......You should seriously cut and paste into the Model Output thread with the header....."This is how you post properly in here"!

[AWD]

Mmmmm............ What's the ECM Det trying to bring in Sunday night/Monday morning?

That's not a bad run, certainly compared to recent runs! We can but hope still!

Edited February 7, 2013 by AWD

[AWD]

Further snowfall possible on Monday and Tuesday as the low sinks south drawing cold air west on its northern flank;

Going to be a difficult few days to forecast with small details changing right up to T0.

[Nights King]

Noticed on bbc local forecast this morning sunday is being portrayed as rain or maybe even some sleet.... Is sunday now a non event then?

Did however say maybe some light patchy snow over hills this evening so shall let you know when I get home around 6pm.

Met office app now gives me rain all the way but we all know what happened when it forecast snow the other day..

[Frosty_wsm]

Noticed on bbc local forecast this morning sunday is being portrayed as rain or maybe even some sleet.... Is sunday now a non event then?

Did however say maybe some light patchy snow over hills this evening so shall let you know when I get home around 6pm.

Met office app now gives me rain all the way but we all know what happened when it forecast snow the other day..

If I were you I'd ignore that forecast for Sunday, detail will chop and change right up to the event, for instance the latest ecm run shows a rain to snow event for our region.

[AWD]

Noticed on bbc local forecast this morning sunday is being portrayed as rain or maybe even some sleet.... Is sunday now a non event then?

Did however say maybe some light patchy snow over hills this evening so shall let you know when I get home around 6pm.

Met office app now gives me rain all the way but we all know what happened when it forecast snow the other day..

Rain Sunday daytime is looking distinctly possible yes, turning to snow Sunday night and lasting through much of Monday on some models though.

Detail will chop and change however, that's just what its looking like at this stage!

[Coast]

Detail will chop and change however, that's just what its looking like at this stage!

I posted in our regional this morning that looking at the MOD thread over the last 24 hours, you could pick any model or individual members analysis of the models and get any scenario you want for this weekend and beyond. This one is going right down to the wire and the lamppost is the most useful tool in your armoury

[Blizzardof82]

Current temp 3.4c with a dew point 0.4c winds lighter WNW humidity 81%.

[Blizzardof82]

I posted in our regional this morning that looking at the MOD thread over the last 24 hours, you could pick any model or individual members analysis of the models and get any scenario you want for this weekend and beyond. This one is going right down to the wire and the lamppost is the most useful tool in your armoury

Agree with you wholeheartedly FWIW I think the system will be further West than models are showing if we could get it further south and west that would be even better, still lots to play for and much better than having an Atlantic dominated scenario

[cerneman]

Just light Breeze with Milky sky, Temps 3.8,

Thank you Tony for first class analyse of weather for next week or so, We are lucky to have friendly and informative thread for our region

Along with AWD and contributions from Gibby, helps people like me to understand more of what is going on with forecasts for region

Having to forward plan outdoor work,such insights invaluable,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Also thank Mapantz for excellent weather station, Real time data

provided by his station is of great value for me,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Must also thank Coast for his insights

Edited February 7, 2013 by cerneman

[Gibby]

From my interpretation of the models this morning I think as far as our patch is concerned it looks a rain event for all our region on Sunday. It's what happens thereafter that I feel has more potential for our patch. If the low stalls temporarily close to the SE as GFS 00z and ECM show a bigger potential for snow would be realised for Monday and Tuesday as the cold air gets pushed back West on the Lows exit SE. Later next week I think it's odds on that things will become less wintry and possibly less cold as milder air makes slow and painful inroads into our area from the Atlantic. It's our old friend the Azores High which is proving very strong at the moment with the jet riding over the top of it and down over the UK. It's a miracle we have any chance at all of snow with such a prominent feature down to our SW.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gibby

[offerman]

Gibby, i was looking at the latest runs and thinking exactly the same thoughts with regard to the azores high. Thank god its tilted north to south or vis virsa whichever wa you look at it and not tilting southwest to northest like it often does at any time of the year.

I totally agree, quite astounding really when you think of the setup how lucky we will be to see any snow given these charts and relatively close promimity of the AZ high and its normal influence from there.

[karlos1983]

Hello fellow CSE and SW'ers.

Five days can be a long time in Meteorology, so from my post on the 1st February to now, are we any further forward to knowing what's in store for the rest of this month.

On my previous posting it was suggested that FI was around the 7th to 8th February timeframe which gave us at best, approximately 6 to 7 days of predictability in terms of a forecast. What was the reality I wonder? If you recall, here were my key dates in my forecast.

Firstly for Dorset, having edited the summary accodingly.

Key timeframes were suggested as 3rd February for a low impact RAIN event, with the period from the 5th February into 6th February looking a decent shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. Even further out, say the 13th February onwards, it hints at a good deal wetter scenario than the preceding ten days or so.

Basically it was a bust, even under a short-term scenario and furthermore the same was said of the predictions for Berkshire which were as follows.

The trend for Berkshire showed the 4th February as a low impact RAIN event, with the slim probability of backedge snowfall and then the 8th February looking a reasonable shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE.

Intriguingly you could possibly rescue the 8th February from the above prediction but we are really clutching at straws I guess. Anyhow, let's move on and have a look at the future. Again, I will attempt a forecast based on some analysis of the GEFS ensembles suite. I will once again be using the 12z suite in isolation.

Here is how the GEFS 12z ensembles saw things developing in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset some five days ago.

On to today, how does the GEFS 12z ensembles view things in terms of developing precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset. To this I will also add Cornwall.

Please follow the MEAN (red line) in order to see the overall trend expected and in turn to help pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

What can we establish from the above? The trend deciphered from the above would indicate an unsettled period upcoming for all. The wettest part of our region likely to be the furthest SW locations within the UK. As ever, there will be drier interludes, to which I will allude to later.

I will now look into any discernable trends coming from the Upper Air profiles. Once again looking back at Berkshire, Dorset and instead of Cornwall, I am using Berlin as an example.

Firstly the situation expected some five days ago.

Berkshire, Dorset and Berlin T850s

And as of today, to which I can add Cornwall T850s to the mix.

Please follow the MEAN (red line) in order to see the overall trend expected and in turn to help pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island.

What you can you decipher from this is a hint as to whether the precipitation will be wintry in nature and more especially, SNOW producing. From the above, I would suggest the period from the 8th February to the 14th February as being a watching episode at this range. Cornwall should expect many showery interludes during the earlier part of the above timeframe. The downside for coldies being the ensembles suggest a largely too warm profile (bar significant elevation) for now. As for Berkshire and Dorset, things don't look as wet as first suggested and when the precipitation spikes are shown, the precipition signal in terms of anything wintry will be marginal at first. However, the interest grows as we enter the timeframe 11th February to the 14th February and probably beyond. The reason Berlin T850s were included was to look for any developing Easterly signal. At this range and the timescale concerned is beyond FI, I do believe there are reasonably strong signs of a continental type flow developing from the 14th February onwards and possibly earlier by a day or so. Of course, this will need to push further Westwards in time for this region to benefit from such an event, but there is hope that such a thing could occur IMHO.

Finally we will see if there are any signs of a drying out taking place in the longer-term by looking at the Air Pressure trend shown, firstly from five days ago

Berkshire and Dorset Air Pressure, to which I will add Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway)

And as of today for Berkshire, Dorset, Cornwall and also using further afield locations as Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway).

to 22nd February 2013.png]

Having said what I stated earlier, you can pretty much write off a High Pressure related scenario taking place until at least 14th February. The trend is for Cornwall to be the wettest of the selected counties with 8th, 10th, 11th, 13th and 14th February looking likely to suffer showery/frontal type precipitation events. Of particular interest to us coldies, the period from the 8th to the 10th February suggest high levels of marginality when it comes to predicting SNOW at the surface. However, from the 11th February onwards, more especially the 12th through to the 14th February are dates to keep in mind for a much higher likelihood of SNOW in almost any of the aforementioned counties of England.

The reason for using Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway) ensembles was to identify as possible trend for a Pressure build in that region, North of the British Isles. At the moment, these appear to favour a Scandinavian blocking type scenario come Mid February. If this does come off, AWD will be very pleased - see below for his comment as of the 31st January.

• cold mid February from the east/north east/north still looking good, still my long range punt. How cold and if it will be accompanied on snowfall remains to be seen. My guess at the stage is not mega cold but easily cold enough for snow, which we will see at some point being closer to the Euro trough.
  

My best bet, largely in line with AWD's initial thoughts is for a Scandinavian blocking to take hold from around the 12th February. This subsequently linking up or losing its identity in favour of a more general Greenland type blocking, come the last ten days or so of February. Whilst saying all the above, it has to be stressed that there is very little cross-model suite agreement at less than t+96 right now, which firmly places Fantasy Island at no later than the 10th February.

I hope the above is of use and folks, keep tuned for many more updates from the usual suspects in the coming days.

Still a whole lot to play for with this winter, bar the usual locations which the residents will know about which will most likely experience a unforecasted heatwave.

What a fantastic read, nice one!!

That may even enable me to attempt my own forecast, I will keep them to myself though to avoid embarrassment

Edited February 7, 2013 by karlos1983

[AWD]

A couple of thoughts from Ian on twitter;

"W COUNTRY Still tricky nuances on rain v snow f'cast end of Sun into Mon AM: some snow more likely by latter. Detail to follow nxt few days."

"W COUNTRY Weekend f'cast showing a bit more coherence on broad themes: essentially dry Sat; wet Sunday. Hopeful snow not an issue for region"

"W COUNTRY However, some transient periods of snow could feature early-mid next week."

"Longer-term, from later next week we expect a return to W/SW flow & wetter/windy weather at times. However, colder conditions poss later Feb"

[Beast of Plympton]

Woke up to a nice dusting of snow this morning, only a couple of mm but made everything white. Heavy snow forecast on Met Office for monday, things are ok!!

[AWD]

Courtesy of Snowking in the very boisterous MOD thread this morning;

If the ECM were to verify, this would be the snowcover it would bring by Tuesday.

[Beast of Plympton]

Courtesy of Snowking in the very boisterous MOD thread this morning;

If the ECM were to verify, this would be the snowcover it would bring by Tuesday.

WOW

[swsnowlover]

I need to move east! Always seem to be just outside the snow line!!

[karlos1983]

Courtesy of Snowking in the very boisterous MOD thread this morning;

If the ECM were to verify, this would be the snowcover it would bring by Tuesday.

Looks like we will be skiing across the channel, good times!!

[fergieweather]

Courtesy of Snowking in the very boisterous MOD thread this morning;

If the ECM were to verify, this would be the snowcover it would bring by Tuesday.

Looks v different in the EC snow accumulations charts I've seen... but some similarity re southern-central area

[Nights King]

A couple of thoughts from Ian on twitter;

"W COUNTRY Still tricky nuances on rain v snow f'cast end of Sun into Mon AM: some snow more likely by latter. Detail to follow nxt few days."

"W COUNTRY Weekend f'cast showing a bit more coherence on broad themes: essentially dry Sat; wet Sunday. Hopeful snow not an issue for region"

"W COUNTRY However, some transient periods of snow could feature early-mid next week."

"Longer-term, from later next week we expect a return to W/SW flow & wetter/windy weather at times. However, colder conditions poss later Feb"

It does seem a shame that snow risk seems to constantly slowly downgrade as we enter the reliable timeframes this winter, even met office seemed bullish for our snow prospects sunday earlier in the week but now its a predom rain event with some transient wintriness early next week.

Shall be keeping an eye on this evenings ppn though to see if we can squeeze a few flakes out of it.

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks v different in the EC snow accumulations charts I've seen... but some similarity re southern-central area

Yes please.

Edited February 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

It does seem a shame that snow risk seems to constantly slowly downgrade as we enter the reliable timeframes this winter, even met office seemed bullish for our snow prospects sunday earlier in the week but now its a predom rain event with some transient wintriness early next week.

Shall be keeping an eye on this evenings ppn though to see if we can squeeze a few flakes out of it.

Mull, the future is still uncertain as it is only the forecast modelling suggesting such things. If you care to look at my attempted forecast yesterday, I think you will see things remain broadly the same, at least in the next five to six days. Come the 12z suites however, I am expecting an upgrade of sorts and then there is tonight's little episode to keep tabs on.

To me, you make things sound like the future is the actual outcome rather than the predicted outcome.

Sorry but AWD, Coast and myself etc. only try to guide us all as to what MAY happen.

Don't take this post as getting at Mullender only, it could be aimed at 90% of the posters within the netweather forums.

Edited February 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[fergieweather]

It does seem a shame that snow risk seems to constantly slowly downgrade as we enter the reliable timeframes this winter, even met office seemed bullish for our snow prospects sunday earlier in the week but now its a predom rain event with some transient wintriness early next week.

Shall be keeping an eye on this evenings ppn though to see if we can squeeze a few flakes out of it.

Doesn't look downgraded to me by Monday on our latest modified fields & EC output. However, latter offers ca. 1-5cm in W Country approx NE of Bridgwater Bay. Heaviest falls out further to E England & SE. No ppn detail to be trusted at this juncture (as chief forecaster at pains to stress).