Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

[Mucka]

Back to developing more significant low pressure SW of Greenland than the 18z.

While UKMO still makes less of it just as it does witht he slider which GFS develops as it pushes SE.

Well negligible trough disruption on the second system from GFS and UKMO this morning but I think today will be another occasion where the output improves through the day.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Mucka

[summer blizzard]

I suspect things will be further west but i don't think a major cold spell is on the way.

[Mucka]

Crap with the low Sunday too. Hard going model watching sometimes

I really wouldn't get hung up on the runs so far though admittedly UKMO is disappointing, thought it would be good this morning.

ECM could well change the mood later though as could the ensembles.

[Dave Kightley]

I can't see a way back to cold on that UKmo 144h or GFS. You would hope the next frame on the ukmomwould go for a slider. Just to Far East. Very disappointed.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Mucka]

hmm GEM and NOGAPS much the same. Not good,Weird that last nights 18z should be so encouraging and this mornings output be so poor,

Some good news, GFS ensmebles aren't bad the Op is a mild outlier toward the end of hi res.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=249&ext=1&y=73&run=0&runpara=0

Edited February 7, 2013 by Mucka

[That ECM]

Just read at least ten pages posts to catch up from yesterday. Very interesting, having a look at the output this morning and last night the summary is it is to close to call for some areas. Some areas will do well and some will miss out altogether. Detail is going to be near on impossible until t24 ish and possibly nearer. A few miles here or there will make the world of difference to some.

Not a dissimilar position to jan in terms of it being a now cast situation although synopticaly a bit different. Longer term, is in IMO looking less likely for the cold to stay in situ but a week is a long time and there is much to look forward to for many. I think I will need to read about most of it from IMBY point but still good for all those in the more favourable places. If you are of a nervous disposition the latest out put from GFS, gem and UKMO are not going to help, nor the constant checking of various nae etc to see if it is going to snow, sleet or rain over your house.

ECM just about to roll out. It will be interesting viewing but it won't give much clarity I feel.

Edited February 7, 2013 by That ECM

[Jupiters Winter]

Lovely ECM upto T120. Snowy snowy T96/T120

[BorrisB77]

Those cold uppers really are flooding back in 96+..come on ECM!!

[That ECM]

Lovely ECM upto T120. Snowy snowy T96/T120

If the t120 chart were to verify. Some places would experience blizzard conditions for awhile. The winds are not as strong on the UKMO at the same time.

At t144 the block to the NE is strengthening with a movement towards gh. Chino and BFTP were discussing this last night. Many will like this chart as we hold a fairly strong NE flow for many, keeping the cold uppers in place. How's your nerves?

Edited February 7, 2013 by That ECM

[Jupiters Winter]

T144 Still holding onto excellent Uppers. The next T's are important and decisive of trend.

T168 - I cant see atlantic winning here in next few frames. More undercutting possible ..

Edited February 7, 2013 by Jupiters Winter

[BorrisB77]

Looks like the block is trying to hold firm at + 168 ( fi anyhow).still thinking it will be harder to shift once cold is entrenched.

[Dave Kightley]

168h poor.. Model agreement on a shortwave being a pain in the I have a problem.

[shaky]

Much much better ecmwf!!and to my eyes ukmo looks practically the same aswell comparing it to yesterday!!oh amd the -4 line was across norfolk yesterday at 72 hours well guess what its been pushed back west to such an extent that it now lies across the midlands!!so un upgrade on 850s for saturday!

edit- ecmwf 168 chart better than yesterdays 12z at around same time high pushed further west!!

Edited February 7, 2013 by shaky

[winterof79]

Having read some of the night crews posts i thought i would have a peek at the model output.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020700/ECH1-96.GIF?07-12 nice

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020700/gfs-0-120.png?0 described as crap???

And UKMO http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013020700/UW120-21.GIF?07-06 not as much energy coming south.....on this run.

So lets get this system nailed before writing off the rest of the week guys.

[mountain shadow]

Pretty good cross model agreement then.

A 2/3 cold snap with snow fall highest towards the south east and thats your lot for Winter..........maybe?

;-)

[That ECM]

192h back to bed...

What about the preceding 80 to 100 hours? and of course a t192 chart won't change?

Thankfully I am able to look and see charts and make up my own mind but before I was able to do this, this sort of commentary would make me feel down. New comers and the less experienced will be confused by your commentary which is misleading.

Edited February 7, 2013 by That ECM

[Mucka]

One talking point yesterday was the nature of the Easterly flow that sets up as the low slides SE which was fairly slack and brief on much of yesterdays output but it has been largely upgraded in this mornings output so better for the possibility of convective showers organising and pushing inland.

Other than that there is cross model agreement on a lack of disruption and therefore undercutting from the next low which on the face of it is not good news but at the same time the troublesome shortwave has largely been downgraded and so blocking is stronger to our NE.

Still if we don't get energy sliding and heading under the block from the second system there is no way to sustain a cold flow as the high will sink as energy moves over the top of it cutting off the cold flow.

All in all an upgrade on the mid term snow prospects but we need to see some undercut from future output to sustain the cold

[IDO]

GFS op just exploring another option on the 0z and has little support from D6:

850pHa and 2m temp outliers compared to the mean. I think D6 is our new FI as for synoptics. Before that we still need the models to agree on the weekend low and how far west the pattern is. Obviously knock on effects for FI from that system.

Edited February 7, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[near northampton]

168h poor.. Model agreement on a shortwave being a pain in the I have a problem.

Are you referring to GFS or ECM, perhaps you could add some charts ot links!

[keithlucky]

ok that was just lucky ;p

Quite a exciting snow event Monday as colder air moves south according to met update for Sunday Cold. Saturday mainly cloudy with a little light rain and hill snow. More persistent rain and hill snow by Sunday, with snow possible to lower levels later and during Monday.

[winterof79]

Pretty good cross model agreement then.

A 2/3 cold snap with snow fall highest towards the south east and thats your lot for Winter..........maybe?

;-)

Not just the S/E http://www.meteociel...&ech=114&mode=2 Most of central and eastern UK

Dave Knightly....get some sleep you are delerious..

Edited February 7, 2013 by winterof79

[Weather-history]

GFS and ECM op 0z runs keep the Sunday low near the UK for a period of time. It's a slow clearance with these models. Have to see if this is a new trend.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Weather-history

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

192h back to bed...

Sleep wel.

Becouse ECMWF is good.

Everything for certain ok within 144 hours.

Also the 240 , becouse he try after a breakdown [ if it hapens] for a renewed block with greenland.

You can see it on the 850 hp T , it is already droppig after 1 day up.

So ther is noway for a zonal jetstream.

Only wenn he is temporaly letting the Azoren high getting closer , or a low gets away.

But afterwards he is closing it again.

If it happens, becouse it is so far away 240 hours.

It could be that we we stay in the cold also.

[Dave Kightley]

Not just the S/E http://www.meteociel...&ech=114&mode=2 Most of central and eastern UK

Dave Knightly....get some sleep you are delerious..

ECM and GFS are good for a rain to snow event as I stated and also that' shortwave around Greenland being a what not reflected in the GFS and ECM output until 192h hours. I rushed into it but still all fl. can't say they we're great runs. The cold uppers are gone by Wednesday. Edited February 7, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Ian Brown]

GFS and ECM op 0z runs keep the Sunday low near the UK for a period of time. It's a slow clearance with these models. Have to see if this is a new trend.

Yes they do and therefore even more of a forecasting nightmare with potentially a lot of PPN around.