South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

[Steve C]

Jeez, the mood in here this morning compared to this time yesterday!

We had ramp posts yesterday, Meto weather warning just been issued. Things were on a high.

The GFS now crushes our dreams within a 24hr period.

I knew the ramp posts yesterday would end in devastation!

Never, ever get excited/ramp outside of +36hrs at the very least

Btw things can and probably will change. NOWCAST

I'm pretty happy. The Friday feeling. I've seen this sort of event too many times over the years to get too excited this far out. No need for euphoria or despondecy yet imho.

[Dexter29]

GFS 6z moves away from the horrible mild sector shown on the GFS00z

Rain turning to snow north of the M4 later Sunday!

All to play for

[Pixel]

I am glad I didn't get excited I cant even see marginal being used here.. Just rain..

don't loose heart... we had snow here the other day and the temp was 3.5 c !! the dew points were below zero.

I'm pretty optimistic about the prospect of snow despite what last night's GFS says.

Plenty of time for surprises.

Wrap up warm in the towel don't thro it away

Edited February 8, 2013 by Pixel Precipitation

[Bluebreezer54]

There is another weather website??!!!!

Erm, well yes, but in my defence I came to my senses some time ago and joined this one. The 'other one' which shall rename nameless, became a bit to cliquey, pedantic and elitist for my liking. Much friendlier here, and a lot simpler to post photo's I might add. Am I forgiven ?!

[Hammer]

Jeez, the mood in here this morning compared to this time yesterday!

We had ramp posts yesterday, Meto weather warning just been issued. Things were on a high.

The GFS now crushes our dreams within a 24hr period.

I knew the ramp posts yesterday would end in devastation!

Never, ever get excited/ramp outside of +36hrs at the very least

Btw things can and probably will change. NOWCAST

I think the GFS 06z reflects that things can change in output. Looks more favourable on this run, but of course, it doesn't mean it is correct.

But at least a positive which seeing as we are still many hours away could develop in to better outlook.

[lawrenk]

Still plenty to play for IMO.

Looking less likely the low late weekend will produce much of note for our region but that could easily swing back again. Following that, ECM is suggesting a cold few days with an easterly flow which has to give us some chances I'd have thought. Beyond that northern blocking seems a good bet to become better established so plenty to come this winter I suspect. Eastbourne had a covering of snow at the beginning of April 2008 so please no "winter is over" posts if the next few days goes "t**ts up!

[Dexter29]

I think the GFS 06z reflects that things can change in output. Looks more favourable on this run, but of course, it doesn't mean it is correct.

But at least a positive which seeing as we are still many hours away could develop in to better outlook.

Yes positive signs from GFS 06z with corrections south.

We just need this to continue into tomorrow now.

[Tom Montalbano]

Right, hope I dont jinx our chances of snow Sunday onwards but am going to pop up the draw for the 2nd round of the London/S.E. Snow depth Cup again.

Those of you still in the Cup who have p.m'd me with your altitude and put it in your profiles thanks, if not could you please do so.

I'm incorporating a handicap system based on your altitude, to balance things up a bit. Sorry, cant do much about wind direction but hopefully we can all get some snow before possible snow showers, early next week!

Handicap System as follows:

0 - 60 metres (Scratch) in other words no h/cap.

61 - 120 metres (-1.5 cms)

121 - 180 metres (-3 cms)

181 - 250 metres (-4.5 cms).

If you dont post an altitude, I'll let these fellas on to you.

http://t1.gstatic.co...brZh1q22XJPOdDf

You can find your altitude through this link. Type in your postcode and your altitude will appear at the bottom of the map.

http://www.daftlogic...nd-altitude.htm

If you dont post an altitude I'll have to calculate one!

Right that draw again:

Draw for the 2nd round of the London And S.E Snow Depth Cup:

Leigh-on-Sea (E) (PAUL SHERMAN) v. Reigate (Sur) (GREAT PLUM)

South Ockenden (E) (CRAZY DIAMOND) v. Little Wakering (E) (ESSEXGOONER)

Ashford (K) (PAUL ASHFORD) v. Ewell (Sur) (AMANZI)

Gravesend (K) (ICEBOX) v. Romford (E) (ROADRUNNER)

Rayleigh (E) (VESUVIUS) v. Dartford (K) (CHARLTON KERRY)

Surrey? (SNOWBOB) v. Thorpe (Sur) (SURREY)

Kent ? (KENT BLIZZARD) v. Shoeburyness (E) (BLACKIE)

Beckenham (K) (JIMMYH) v. Barnet (H) (SUBURBAN STREAMER)

Benfleet (E) (SNOWPRO) v. Surrey ? (LONDON SNOW)

Faversham (K) (TILLY) v. Bromley (K) (LUPIEJAN)

Uckfield (Sus) (TOM JARVIS) v. Kent ? (THROWOFF)

Waltham Abbey (E) (JOHN MAC) v. Ongar (E) (JO S)

Bushey (H)(SVALIJI) v. Forest Hill (L) (MACC SE)

Haywards Heath (Sus) (NIKKIB74) v. Wandsworth (L) (BLIZZARD BELLE)

N.W.Kent ? (KENTSPUR) v. Bromley (K) (VERTICAL LIMIT)

Bromley (K) (BROMLEY PILGRIM) v. Hailsham (Sus) (JULES71)

West/Central London (SNO'PROBLEM) v. Coney Hall (K) (BIGGIN)

Crowborough (Sus) (JAMES HARRIS) v. East Sheen (L) (DICKIE 1965)

Folkestone (K) (LOTTIEKENT) v.Sutton (Sur) (SOUTHBANK)

S.W.London (FLUID DYNAMIC) v. Rochester (K) (BARMY BINT)

Fairlight (Sus) (BLUEBREEZER54) v. Swanley (K) (SNOWBLUES)

East Farleigh (K) (SNIFFER MARK) v. Crayford (K) (MIKE STORM)

Halling (K) (HALLING WEATHER) v. N.W.Kent (LAUREN)

That completes the draw for the 2nd round.

Once models firm up on snow possibilities for the region, will let you know what date/time depths to be measured by.

So please let me have your altitudes, pretty please!

Regards,

Tom.

Edited February 8, 2013 by TomSE20

[Coast]

Am I forgiven ?!

If you say three 'hail Marys' and give us all snow Sunday, Monday and Tuesday!

[tight isobar]

I,v seen enough, or have i seen not to much?,.....the evolving situ regarding event in snow for is becoming ever more complex, the incoming LP, is as confused as us here.as it incrotches it becomes desperate to introduce warm sector ELEMENTS(highlight elements) because it could be that marginal.with snow falling one location and not 15 miles up/downroad snow, falling simply as the system in comes , Its almost inevitable that both wind surge and direction begin to switch,and this is where the headache is at, does lp move with more vigor or less.for us southern east we should hope that the tilt is quicker i.e introducing uppers to cool quicker, with direction of more of easterly component. Although somewhat concerning is cold/very pooling in near continent is a little out of favour at present.However enough so if evolv,s as hoped cold enough to get placement of suitable gradient.im hopeful and think we could get lucky, but this is going to be nail bitting.if things DO fall into place, it could unfold with some real decent and perhaps, long winded snowfall for our region.....Happy nail bitting......:-0.

[Nick F]

Paul does nw use gfs for its forecasts?

I use a blend of GFS, UKMO and ECM. Tend to err towards the Euros when it comes to snow and storm events.

[Bluebreezer54]

Still plenty to play for IMO.

Looking less likely the low late weekend will produce much of note for our region but that could easily swing back again. Following that, ECM is suggesting a cold few days with an easterly flow which has to give us some chances I'd have thought. Beyond that northern blocking seems a good bet to become better established so plenty to come this winter I suspect. Eastbourne had a covering of snow at the beginning of April 2008 so please no "winter is over" posts if the next few days goes "t**ts up!

I agree with your general sentiments but according to the official Met Office definition of the seasons, Winter ends on the last day of February. Thats not to say wintry weather ends on that day of course. Nature does what nature wants, thankfully.

[Guest bjaykent]

I'm pretty happy. The Friday feeling. I've seen this sort of event too many times over the years to get too excited this far out. No need for euphoria or despondecy yet imho.

I don't worry too much, I just like weather with snow being a bonus, I remember as a child all the snowless winters here in the 1970's and then loving everything about the weather after the winter in early 1979. Lets hope for some more positive news from the runs later

[Biensie]

Steve Murr has posted a brilliant chart on the Mod Thread #501 that shows beginners how to read it. Maye someone clever can put it on our thread.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Biensie

[tight isobar]

P,s should the complete GFS output, be re-named the david cameron model....? As it seems to be of late talkin b#@#ox...

[Hammer]

Interesting post from Fergie in the Model thread. Suggests that NAE output already been modified. Indicating snow even early hours of Sunday with snow line from approx Herts to East Midlands.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2592199

Edited February 8, 2013 by Hammer

[Bluebreezer54]

If you say three 'hail Marys' and give us all snow Sunday, Monday and Tuesday!

Not asking much then......how about a instead ??

Re TomSE20's snow depth Cup. What haappens in my case where I have shifted venues mid competition ?? In the first round I was based in Fairlight, but now moved back home to Northwood ( Nw London.....68m asl ).

[Dexter29]

Interesting post from Fergie in the Model thread. Suggests that NAE output already been modified. Indicating snow even early hours of Sunday with snow line from approx Herts to East Midlands.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2592199

Very encouraging!

Snow possible in the early hours of Sunday morning, herts eastwards.

Although I'm dropping my other half to Luton airport at 6am Sunday!!

[Pixel]

Steve Murr has posted a brilliant chart on the Mod Thread #501 that shows beginners how to read it.

this is a link for NEWER members to view their location for snow potential-

ignore the GFS to a certain extent - Boyden correction at 50% is 1293 DAM for snow line - obviously height of WBFL is key as well so if you are at say 100m thats better- but we knew that anyway-

http://www.weatheron...M=1&PERIOD==

So this is the 850-1000 thickness charts target sub 1293 DAM.

The border of the light blue to the green is 1300 DAM & the border of the light blue to darker blue is 1290 DAM so you need to be in the zone of light blue at Worst ( obviously darker the better )which is a transition area of rain to snow- or in other words

Adjacent to green 1300 dam & adjacent to dark blue 1290- so the distance across the 2 is 1299, 1298, 1297 1296 1295 1294

1293 *****

The first indications of rain to snow will be 48 on the NAE 18z for my regions highlighted & then further south 00z at 48 for the adjacent southerly counties-

obviously when you find yourself condusive to snow check the PPN rate for that time.

The NAE model will probably be using 1290 dam for the pink snowline.- on its rain/snow charts

hope this helps

S

[Chris101]

Erm, well yes, but in my defence I came to my senses some time ago and joined this one. The 'other one' which shall rename nameless, became a bit to cliquey, pedantic and elitist for my liking. Much friendlier here, and a lot simpler to post photo's I might add. Am I forgiven ?!

I know where your coming from BB, i asked questions in there a couple of times recently and it seemed that because i wasn't part of the popular gang i got nothing in the way of replies, so i made my way over here for the last cold period and it seems a lot friendlier with a lot more people prepared to help when questions are asked.

I know its cruel but you did make me laugh a lot when you couldn't get the hang of posting a photo, but i did try to help unlike many others.

[alexisj9]

Yes very good, spooky though, as well as working in Croydon, I once worked in Dulwich!

Cheers,

Tom

Agreed a bit spooky, I used to live in dulwich, now in croydon.

[Biensie]

Thanks P.P.

[VillagePlank]

Goofus is all over the place between 00z and 06z.

In terms of snow chances you need the 850hPa Theta-W to be 3degC or lower for a c.50% chance of precipitation falling as snow snow, at 2degC it's odds on. Here's the 00z, and 06z charts,

So 00z says no chance unless you are living in Scotland, and 06z shows the cold air is now into Northern England with most of England under c.30% chance of snow at sea-level. So an improving Goofus forecast, but still marginal at sea-level and sleet/snow only likely with height.

Highest probability of snow is around midnight, Saturday, but looks to turn readily to rain quite quickly,

As others have already said, nowcasting the formation of the low pressure is pretty much the only way to make any forecast of any reliability.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Tom Montalbano]

Not asking much then......how about a instead ??

Re TomSE20's snow depth Cup. What haappens in my case where I have shifted venues mid competition ?? In the first round I was based in Fairlight, but now moved back home to Northwood ( Nw London.....68m asl ).

Thats fine, I'll just refer to you as MK Dons/AFC Wimbledon, you must stop switching your franchise!

Cheers,

Tom

[Tom Montalbano]

Agreed a bit spooky, I used to live in dulwich, now in croydon.

Hi Alexis,

Worked in Lordship Lane, Goose Green end, not the Falkland Islands though!

Regards,

Tom