Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

CMA 12z 192 hours have a different option but also very pretty , it comes with a Atlantik block.

It wants to bring NNW or the nord in again , but could be turbulent by this chart.

Heavy wintry showers with gales possible in here .Heavy precipatation as well.

Snow in Schotland , and higher ground ,trending down to lower levels , not sure .

I am waiting still for the last chart from the Chinese Weathermodel CMA .

. . 192 hours.

[ChartViewer]

Would be lovely to see just 1 Greenland High get into the reliable this winter from ANY model ...Its been a very long winter model watching...is anyone else just about shattered by it all or am i gettig old?

Edited February 10, 2013 by ChartViewer

[TootyFruity]

The Cma model is that a reliable model ? Or is it best to stick to the GFS or ECM for the runs ?

[-uksnow-]

Would be lovely to see just 1 Greenland High get into the reliable this winter from ANY model ...Ite been a very long winter model watching...is anyone else just about shattered by it all or am i gettig old?

Nope, im 17 and shattered

The Cma model is that a reliable model ? Or is it best to stick to the GFS or ECM for the runs ?

GFS, ECM + UKMO are best.

[Ice Day]

Would be lovely to see just 1 Greenland High get into the reliable this winter from ANY model ...Ite been a very long winter model watching...is anyone else just about shattered by it all or am i gettig old?

I make you right. This winter has been stacked full of potential on a few occasions but each event has failed to live up to its billing (even though I'm getting a decent enough snow event right now!). Perhaps our Dutch friend is right and March is going to give us a 'Grand Finale'?

[Captain Shortwave]

Would be lovely to see just 1 Greenland High get into the reliable this winter from ANY model ...Its been a very long winter model watching...is anyone else just about shattered by it all or am i gettig old?

I think it's shattered us all,

this is my view of the pub run

http://perikinder.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/picard-facepalm.jpg

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look the GFS 18z version.

A yellow high 1045 hectopascal .

En low pressure in the Meditirean sea.

That means easterly flow for UK , cold version.

Later could become southeasterly flow for UK with good snow chances.

[Duane S.]

I make you right. This winter has been stacked full of potential on a few occasions but each event has failed to live up to its billing (even though I'm getting a decent enough snow event right now!). Perhaps our Dutch friend is right and March is going to give us a 'Grand Finale'?

Really, there have only been 3 periods of potential this winter.

The first in early December certainly did not live up to the early billing, the second in January did though (IMO we eeked the very best out of that with the daughter vortex sat resident S of Greenland) , the third hasn't happened yet...

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Just short statement , becouse i see some people asking about.

CMA is recent upgrade, en GFS is using also data from them , they have co operation together.

So saying GFS is better than CMA is no fact.

And i look always each every model en hang to the wall en than i watch.

I can say that CMA score was very very high in december en januari.

I keep data from all models in grafiek..

[Ice Day]

Really, there have only been 3 periods of potential this winter.

The first in early December certainly did not live up to the early billing, the second in January did though (IMO we eeked the very best out of that with the daughter vortex sat resident S of Greenland) , the third hasn't happened yet...

I suppose it comes down to local experience. The January 'event' was dreadful for my neck of the woods, spent all day watching the precip fizzle out about 10 miles south west of Essex. Overall, I mustn't grumble really, but it's just that I, like many on here, are really hoping for a big snow event, something memorable. This year has promised something special, but just hasn't quite delivered as I'd hoped. No doubt my expectations are unreasonably high!!!

[Duane S.]

I've just viewed the ECM and have to say that putting aside the fact it isn't drawing in -50 uppers from the Arctic circle, synoptically it's one of the best runs I have seen all winter. Of great interest is the cutoff low that ends up sitting over the Azores. Great for sustained cold and potential for a snowfest later on I would imagine. Now, all it has to do now is verify!

[Cleeve Hill]

Both GFS and ECM are now showing HP to our north or N.E in a week or so time.

Was reading one of those "observer" books today (if anyone can remember those) and there was an interesting fact quoted, saying most of the u.k snow comes in Feb & March due to H.P to our north.

Well here we are - its not over yet but I think we are all starting to look forward to a bit of sun and warmth after a colder than average winter.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

CFS 12z long termin.= cold.

CFS 12z ;The March theorie ? Staging cold ?

[Panayiotis]

I dont know if these have been posted here but the ECM ensembles are good with the control following the operational, just need the other members to follow and that mean should drop again, tomorrows charts will be interesting!

[kumquat]

Don't quite get the reading of ECM ensembles as being good. 75% are above the 0 degrees line for 2m temps from Thursday onwards (and this is from De Bilt, further east and more susceptible to colder easterlies being on the continental mainland.) Would mean frost at the best, cool but dry - perhaps some convective snow showers into The Garden Of England if the ECM 850s come off at the 216-240z range. No prolonged cold there for the majority of the UK. I realise it can change but I think some members are getting so desperate for deep cold that they are reading the output wrongly.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

GFS 00z is Nigtmare run for wintry people.

Very bad , i dont believe it.

Gem 00z holding firm , consistent.

Look the chart from it.

It is very unsure at very short limit already between some models.

I think the cold options will win.

Btw unexpected a band of snow is moving from Belgium to me .

That is what i mean sometimes with last minute calculation with low s direction between warm en cold air.A minimaal difference can do lot of things change s.

I will make again some foto s for you at my galery.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

While the GFS 00z is a drama run for cold , opposite is GEM 00z [ Canadian] stunning good.

Look the chart for the 180 hours.

A Iceland block , en cold low can move south from the nord.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

CFS , climate/weather model the latest run 18z [ they alway scome later] shows ua this.

A little intrelude with mild air at medium range , en than a robuust cold snap shot.

Look the chart piece s, not far each other in the time frame.

We begin with a 174 hours chart.

Than at 228

En look at this chart with a major outburts of continental Arctische air !

The forbidden CA air can move or break out from there , .

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

GFS 00z ensemble s , they lost the road, a complete mess , at very short term already , enormous spreading en difference s.

[Shunter]

Don't quite get the reading of ECM ensembles as being good. 75% are above the 0 degrees line for 2m temps from Thursday onwards (and this is from De Bilt, further east and more susceptible to colder easterlies being on the continental mainland.) Would mean frost at the best, cool but dry - perhaps some convective snow showers into The Garden Of England if the ECM 850s come off at the 216-240z range. No prolonged cold there for the majority of the UK. I realise it can change but I think some members are getting so desperate for deep cold that they are reading the output wrongly.

Must admit I am thinking the same, gfs London ensemble mean for 0z is above the 0c mark from Thursday through day 16.

[disco-barry]

March theories, what about the mid-Feb theories? Is it looking like dropping colder after the midweek blip or will it do what the bbc say? high pressure from the SW bringing temps up to about 7-8c.

[winterof79]

GFS = http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png make of that what you will.

[Jason M]

Some big changes in the output this morning and not in a good way. ECM is still rolling out.

Complete step change in ensembles as well. I actually thought I had accidentally been looking at the wrong charts for a moment.

The Greenland high scenario has been pretty much taken off the table completely this morning from what I can see. Still a few easterlies in the longer range output but it looks like we're headed back into much milder weather :-(

I thought it odd watching country file last night that bbc were so bullish about SW winds but now I see why.

Very disappointing this morning.

Jason

[snowking]

Well the ECM at 216 is the crumb of comfort this morning at 216 as for the second run in a row it starts to throw heights NW

Ill take a closer look at the ensemble means a bit later, but needless to say those GFS ensembles at face value looking pretty terrible...then again, ECM v GFS sounds a familiar battle now

SK

[winterof79]

METO forecast unsettled next weekend then settling down.ECM has other ideas re the unsettled weekend

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021100/ECH1-120.GIF?11-12

not too shabby http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021100/ECH1-240.GIF?11-12