Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Don]

Looking at this morning's output, February 2013 looks as though it could go pearshaped smilar to those of 2009 and last year. What would it take to get a proper decent February these days?! Wasn't expecting it to look this poor this morning.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Don

[MR EXTREMES]

if the greenland high does turn up i think it wont be much use to be honest i think the greenland heights has been the thing of nightmares this winter.

and still now the hopes of greenland heights or even scandi heights is really nothing to get excited over.

im sure the northelies will be back at some point through spring and a sting in winters tail will show its hand at some point but as has been stated if the models dont pick up on something dramatic i would call time on winter 12/13 been eventful and i stayed as optimistic as i could possibly be even shooting down the likes of ian brown ect but by god he was pretty dam right this winter well done ian.

although as i stated for the southcoast its not been the worst see more this year than last so all in all it was eventfull in a shorterm aspect.

the models this year have been absolutely shocking apart from the ukmo so lets hope we see upgrades on the others to iron out the mistakes for next winter.

12/13 will go down as so close yet so far in my mind.

but lets not be mistaken lots and lots have contributed to this forum and this would be a boring forum if they didnt.

i keep watching for another few days then start thinking about spring and summer.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Although UKMO still going for a Cold End to month I see . Some signs of a colder than average weather type becoming established over the UK for the start of this period. Then, whilst there is, as ever, some uncertainty through this forecast period, generally colder than average conditions are likely to persist across many parts of the UK. Frequent frosty nights are then also expected, and the risk of wintry precipitation is then likely to be slightly greater than average.

Edited February 11, 2013 by reef
No need for personal digs

[cooling climate]

I myself wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the chances of perhaps a very cold pattern setting up in

the 10-15 day time frame. By very cold I mean uppers of -10c or below. Even in the 4-7 day time

frame I do not think things are nailed yet and am looking forward to this afternoon and evenings

runs. The SSW has not finished with us yet.

Yesterday I was bemoaning this cold spell but ended up with 21/2 to 3 inches of laying snow

on all surfaces plus another couple of cold (1c to 2c) days to come with perhaps a little more

snow. So can not complain at all really and it was great to see the snow coming down in waves

blown on by the strong s/e wind last night. Plus it has been snowing most of the morning to.

[Frosty.]

Although UKMO still going for a Cold End to month I see . Some signs of a colder than average weather type becoming established over the UK for the start of this period. Then, whilst there is, as ever, some uncertainty through this forecast period, generally colder than average conditions are likely to persist across many parts of the UK. Frequent frosty nights are then also expected, and the risk of wintry precipitation is then likely to be slightly greater than average.

copy and paste job from yesterday, still a ton of uncertainty since the gefs and ecm ens mean are poles apart in FI.

Edited February 11, 2013 by reef
Quoted post edited

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ECM ensemble run supports a milder spell of weather starting during the weekend

Beyond this we are then left we fairly average temperatures but in any sunny periods it would probably feel mild given the days are now getting ever longer

[Rocheydub]

And so people are writing off winter on Feb 11. Yup, figures.

Has winter started?

The charts do look like an early spring may be on the cards, and from my perspective in my location in the east coast of Ireland, it's been a long season model watching, disappointment after disappointment in last minute shortwaves developing. THAT ECM onwards and right through the charts have promised so much, but the most I saw was a few days with the odd sleety flurry.

My points are: The charts are showing predictions that rarely do predict weather in specific localities beyond 4/5 days in advance. Moreover, the weather will do what the weather will do, and moaning at GFS or ECM is pointless...

On a personal note, this has been the greatest letdown of a winter in my decades of watching charts. Promised so much, but delivered nothing in my area.

So, my last straw clutch is a massive GH to develop this weekend, and the end of February as a sub zero/ ice days week!!! Some hope of that!

[Summer Sun]

copy and paste job from yesterday.

Yeah, any change will probably follow tomorrow when the ec 32 dayer updates or they see growing signals of a change away from colder weather it will need more than 2 mild runs before there forecast changes and rightly so

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

No spring for Brittain is the opinion of the Chinese weathermodel CMA .

Just colder , so we will see !

[MR EXTREMES]

and the most intresting thing ive noticed just recently is that the suns output has been very low and now blocking is showing its hand if only this was in novemeber so a year hopefully of low solar output maybe we will see something special next winter.

sorry mods i know not model chat but in 09/10 during this lower solar min the models were better and handled that winter very well.

since then i think the vortex and ssw they seem to become more unconvincing.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

copy and paste job from yesterday, still a ton of uncertainty since the gefs and ecm ens mean are poles apart in FI.

Yes you have right , we will see , my friend , we will see !

[bluearmy]

Gosh the models seem to be throwing everything at us cold then mild dare i say almost springlike from GFS and then mild then cold from ECM not sure if to get my bikini ready or thermal under crackers out !!! What is a girl to do

as much as i'd like to suggest the bikini, i think the thermals should be kept at the ready. i may be a lone voice on here today but unless the west based -NAO is going to verify, i see no sustained mild over the next couple of weeks. i've tried my best by going through all the ens output and the mobile options bringing warmer uppers dont seem likely imo.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

It is not over at all the struggle with the weathermodels.

I stay at the road for the cold options.

Cma en also other support is still there , also is see good signals also by the Ecmwf also EC 32.

Also CFS .

I want remind people that it can be winter also in march with snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

I myself wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the chances of perhaps a very cold pattern setting up in

the 10-15 day time frame. By very cold I mean uppers of -10c or below. Even in the 4-7 day time

frame I do not think things are nailed yet and am looking forward to this afternoon and evenings

runs. The SSW has not finished with us yet.

Yesterday I was bemoaning this cold spell but ended up with 21/2 to 3 inches of laying snow

on all surfaces plus another couple of cold (1c to 2c) days to come with perhaps a little more

snow. So can not complain at all really and it was great to see the snow coming down in waves

blown on by the strong s/e wind last night. Plus it has been snowing most of the morning to.

i think the models really do reflect a rather cool but dryer outlook and although id love to clutch at straws -10 uppers are not shown on any output except perhaps way out into fi.

i do however feel that something within spring showers could pop up during march or april but nothing thats not common in most spring setups but saying this it could be a early and very mild spring perhaps very settled to, this seems to been a common feature for a few years now until summer then it all goes rather soggy.

as for the uk met outlook id say the cooler reflection for the next couple of weeks could be a fair statement but i think we will see changes to there wording.

[bluearmy]

This mornings ECM ensemble run supports a milder spell of weather starting during the weekend

Beyond this we are then left we fairly average temperatures but in any sunny periods it would probably feel mild given the days are now getting ever longer

can no one see the direction of travel for the trough energy at days 9 and 10 ?

[phil nw.]

Maybe not RIP Winter yet.

The 00z ens are showing a large spread from the end of the week so there`s much uncertainty wrt the pattern next week.

http://www.weatherca...e-forecast.html

GFS wants to flatten the flow and ride the weak jet over the top so we get the mild westerly pattern but the ECM still showing amplification and heights further north with a cold surface High near the UK.

The mean outputs of the 2 Operationals days 7-10 show the difference in the 500hPa pattern

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

this could go either way and although we are looking at a milder end to the week i wouldn`t yet rule out the chance of a colder outlook based on the current picture showing a vortex retreating from Greenland and a weakened Atlantic as a consequence.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

can no one see the direction of travel for the trough energy at days 9 and 10 ?

agreed mate ,

One or two bad runs from the gfs doesn't herald spring , what I see is this week becoming milder after wed or thurs , then maybe 4-5 days of milder weather , and the models are over reacting to this signal , it happens a lot , once they get a grip with the change then they will move forward .

The longer signals regarding Greenland heights is still there , a wobble in the models doesn't change the general theme .

I'm still keen on deep cold second half of feb.

[phil nw.]

can no one see the direction of travel for the trough energy at days 9 and 10 ?

Signs of it extending SE Nick.

As a matter of interest i had a quick scan through the 00z mean 500 anomalies.

ECM/GEM outputs still quite bullish on +ve heights around Iceland day 10 whereas GFS have faded these quite a bit since yesterday.

For some reason the GFS outputs have had a wobble overnight so this will likely bias the NAEF`s today.

[Milhouse]

GFS in FI throws up one of those if only it were late spring summer charts this morning

The high res part of the GFS 6z is not too dissimilar to February 2008 where we saw some very mild sunny days from a light southerly flow. The ECM op is a bit cooler with high pressure centred more over the UK but it seems like a sustained period of high pressure dominance is just around the corner. The ECM mean seems to support the GFS with roughly high pressure to the east, low pressure to the west.

[Duane S.]

I see a lot of "if only blocking showing up on the charts for late month / early March were in midwinter" type posts appearing. I think what a lot of people tend to forget is that it is no coincidence HLB forms more readily in late winter than midwinter.

As for the recent meh chart output, I wonder how much is an over-reaction to the MJO heading into phase 2/3? It seems to me that this winter (for whatever reason) there has been quite a disconnect between the MJO and our weather, would be a shame for a greater coupling to return around about now in that respect! ECM still looking good though and most output would be back to decent again if there was only slightly less energy driving over the top mid-range. I wouldn't be surprised to see this flip back somewhat on the 12z's.

[snowking]

Signs of it extending SE Nick.

As a matter of interest i had a quick scan through the 00z mean 500 anomalies.

ECM/GEM outputs still quite bullish on +ve heights around Iceland day 10 whereas GFS have faded these quite a bit since yesterday.

For some reason the GFS outputs have had a wobble overnight so this will likely bias the NAEF`s today.

That last sentence is a crucial point, I am always reluctant to use the NAEFS unless you have agreement between the two ensemble suites, because you just end up with an incomprehensible and diluted output.

Obviously we only have limited ensemble sets (and my mission during the off-season, so as to speak, is to source further such suites), but out of those we can see, namely ECM, GEM and GFS, it is the GFS which looks on its own at present.

Whether that stays the same or not only time will tell, but this wouldn't be the first time this year already that the GFS has picked up an idea in the 8-15 day period, and then dropped it whilst other suites pick up the idea and continue to run with it. Back in December of course the GFS prevailed, since then we've seen it fail on this account twice.

The 0z operationals were poor, but this is where the importance of ensemble forecasting comes into it...and the ECM mean height solution is currently supported by the GWO composites that Recretos created....the GFS continues to mirror an MJO phase 2 composite

SK

[Methuselah]

agreed mate ,

One or two bad runs from the gfs doesn't herald spring , what I see is this week becoming milder after wed or thurs , then maybe 4-5 days of milder weather , and the models are over reacting to this signal , it happens a lot , once they get a grip with the change then they will move forward .

The longer signals regarding Greenland heights is still there , a wobble in the models doesn't change the general theme .

I'm still keen on deep cold second half of feb.

Indeed, but neither do about 200 failed FI-Snowmageddons guarantee an 'epic' end to winter

Edited February 11, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[bluearmy]

at least we're now discussing what the models show as opposed to early this morning when we were just refelcting one poorish necp suite. tbh, the gefs have not been keen on sustained cold since they ditched the mid atlantic anomaly. thereafter, its been tooing and froing with height rises across to our north coupled with clustering of more mobile solutions.

[johnholmes]

I think one or two of you are perhaps being a touch biased in looking for cold?

The 500mb anomaly charts show 2 with a probable pattern not dissimilar to what we have had. The other one is quite different so whilst the balance is 2 to 1 I am reluctant to throw my hat in the ring and sit on the fence much as I posted this morning in this and the other thread.

You folk may turn out to be right but it is far from a done thing in my view.

this is in the 6-15 day time scale not before

Edited February 11, 2013 by johnholmes

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs rolling out still not looking good so far.