Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[nick sussex]

Cure discovered for insomnia! Yes its tonights ECM operational run. Any semblance of interest its showed over recent days disappears with a flat pattern, strange with a weak jet and the PV having moved away from its recent winter holiday destination the models have decided to bring us some dismally boring output.

[bryan629]

the low at 144 will not punch through a seeming weakness between the scandi high and greenland, it will instead slide, undercut and heights to our north will build, ukmo and gfs model this and besides that cfs and ryan say so LOL. and not forgetting RJS statements.

gfs simply cannot be ignored as the model that suddenly `flipped` at such short range, even in the reliable of sorts.

go with the flow...its brilliant leaving us all guessing.

jees for most of the uk tomorrow is so much uncertainty at this time, is it going to snow, when , how much.. where... a right kettle of fish ( funny i mentioned two weathermen in one sentence) but at least we have not got drab scenario on our hands over the last few official weeks of winter.

[johnholmes]

John, i think he is referring to these from GP

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=159895 - 6-10 day

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=159894 - 11-15 day

ok

Still not 'huge' though and one has to know roughly what they should be on average for February. When I get chance I will post the charts UK Met sent me for averages for the 3 winter months

[ChartViewer]

I guess if the ECm is being consistent, we can disregard anything the GFS says and throw it in the bin?

Until the Euros come on board mate id suggest the GFS is barking up a very large and wrong tree...Dont like the way the Euros keep trying to keep some vortex energy over Greenland/Canada....where as GFS is seemingly shifting it all out by around T120...............we will find out over next 4 days

Edited February 9, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Summer Sun]

T240

The milder weather gives way to something cooler

[snowking]

John, i think he is referring to these from GP

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=159895 - 6-10 day

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=159894 - 11-15 day

It should be noted those are valid Thurs-Mon

The most recent 6-10 day from the

12z update:

Even stronger signal from the ENS mean.

GEM less keen in the shorter term, but equally as keen in the 11-15 day period:

No denying really - poor ECM op in the medium range....we now wait to see where it sits amongst the EPS suite

SK

[Liam J]

Low pressure edges the high south at t216

Talk about stating the obvious... If the ECM is being consistent then why is there a 30mb+ difference in heights over Greenland compared to the previous output? A pretty large swing if ever there was one!

[Frosty.]

I guess if the ECm is being consistent, we can disregard anything the GFS says and throw it in the bin?

The fact is that all the models have their ups and downs, the ecm has been very good in the build up to the current coldish spell whereas the gfs appeared to be clueless, however, the ecm was predicting something a lot more severe than we are likely to end up with whereas the gfs was never really buying it at any stage and jumped onboard only recently but now it seems the ecm is slipping a bit and the gfs could be about to enter a purple patch of it's own, I keep optimistic that the cold block can deliver a knockout blow to the rather listless atlantic next week and find a way to a more severe spell in the last few weeks of winter.

[fergieweather]

Thats really interesting TEITS, you would take GFS over the high res models in the short term? What is the reason for that, surely the likes of the NAE and others will give a better prediction at this very short timescale?

No. High res no panacea: can actually exacerbate inaccurate solution. For example, UKMO-GM and MOGREPS-R output bears little resemblance to 12z NAE re snow distribution and amounts in central-southern England. Hence awaiting 18z with interest.

[UV-RAY]

The fact is that all the models have their ups and downs, the ecm has been very good in the build up to the current coldish spell whereas the gfs appeared to be clueless, however, the ecm was predicting something a lot more severe than we are likely to end up with whereas the gfs was never really buying it at any stage and jumped onboard only recently but now it seems the ecm is slipping a bit and the gfs could be about to enter a purple patch of it's own, I keep optimistic that the cold block can deliver a knockout blow to the rather listless atlantic next week and find a way to a more severe spell in the last few weeks of winter.

i admire you optimism Frosty but I'm struggling too see where such a cold spell will come from. We have the same problem as we've had all winter despite favourable Synoptics, maybe towards the end of this month we'll finally get heights in the right place but by then we'll be looking at making a silk purse out of a sows ear.

[Liam J]

12z NMM accumulated ppn predictions by the time we reach Monday morning, also snow depth chart highlighting not much accumulation away from the higher ground.

[Isolated Frost]

i admire you optimism Frosty but I'm struggling too see where such a cold spell will come from. We have the same problem as we've had all winter despite favourable Synoptics, maybe towards the end of this month we'll finally get heights in the right place but by then we'll be looking at making a silk purse out of a sows ear.

Really? December was below average for much of the north, and there were a few snow events in the first half of the month. I know you didn't have a good spell in January, but much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland had a superb 2 week spell. Tomorrow looks very interesting for parts as well.

The atlantic is as strong as Man City's defence- if there was any time for the block to push through, retrogress and bring in the cold, it's now.

[chris55]

No. High res no panacea: can actually exacerbate inaccurate solution. For example, UKMO-GM and MOGREPS-R output bears little resemblance to 12z NAE re snow distribution and amounts in central-southern England. Hence awaiting 18z with interest.

Well that says (as everyone prob knows) that no model is of much use then at present. Dynamic situation, and if it's better to follow GFS op for Sunday than the other models then I'll eat my hat.

[Panayiotis]

No. High res no panacea: can actually exacerbate inaccurate solution. For example, UKMO-GM and MOGREPS-R output bears little resemblance to 12z NAE re snow distribution and amounts in central-southern England. Hence awaiting 18z with interest.

I was about to post something similar, using the image posted by Matt Hugo on twitter, you can see the differences between it and the NAE at the same timeframe.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

12z NMM accumulated ppn predictions by the time we reach Monday morning, also snow depth chart highlighting not much accumulation away from the higher ground.

From an IMBY perspective, a decent signal across N Mids and Cheshire

[Frosty.]

i admire you optimism Frosty but I'm struggling too see where such a cold spell will come from. We have the same problem as we've had all winter despite favourable Synoptics, maybe towards the end of this month we'll finally get heights in the right place but by then we'll be looking at making a silk purse out of a sows ear.

Thanks but looking at the atlantic next week, up to midweek we are in the cold block, then on wednesday there is a low predicted to push up against the cold block on the northern side and force it to retreat, but there is no follow up low to deliver the knockout blow and I believe the block could take most of the sting out of that low before the filling feature drifts away north and then the cold can intensify again and begin to march west to cover the uk and entrench us in a prolonged very cold outlook, the 6z and now the 12z gfs have shown that the cold can ultimately win out if the atlantic remains less active.

[alexisj9]

I'm not even sure the expected low has form yet, things will be a bit clearer once it has, the models and forcasters then have something visable to work with.

[weather eater]

Looks to me from recent output that beyond mid week none of the models seem to have much of a clue, in terms of trends rather than consistency the GFS seems to be the pack leader (if only just) with several recent runs trying to build heights to our north and north west, the ECMs latter output keeps jumping about like a frog on a hot plate, so nothing clear cut yet and it’s really a case of wait and see if a clear pattern emerges. On a better note I got my test results back from the hospital and I'm clear of thyroid cancer so winter can whistle, because I'm happy regardless, cold and snow or mild and wet is of no importance and there will be winter output to mull over and ponder for a good few years yet hopefully.

[UV-RAY]

Really? December was below average for much of the north, and there were a few snow events in the first half of the month. I know you didn't have a good spell in January, but much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland had a superb 2 week spell. Tomorrow looks very interesting for parts as well.

The atlantic is as strong as Man City's defence- if there was any time for the block to push through, retrogress and bring in the cold, it's now.

Lol, as strong as Man City's defence. December came in around average for the month and January did deliver snow for quite a few. But we was never able to tap into any deep cold pool throughout due to heights not being able to back West far enough. It's been a relatively poor winter for a lot of areas for cold, around these parts we are running at average to just above in terms of temp and well below average in terms of snowfall and frosts. The synoptic profile in the NH has been fantastic, unfortunately for us we haven't been able to get the best out of this for large parts of this winter.

[Timmytour]

The fact is that all the models have their ups and downs, the ecm has been very good in the build up to the current coldish spell whereas the gfs appeared to be clueless, however, the ecm was predicting something a lot more severe than we are likely to end up with whereas the gfs was never really buying it at any stage and jumped onboard only recently but now it seems the ecm is slipping a bit and the gfs could be about to enter a purple patch of it's own, I keep optimistic that the cold block can deliver a knockout blow to the rather listless atlantic next week and find a way to a more severe spell in the last few weeks of winter.

Hard to get away from the fact that, for many of here, the "Model of the Moment" is the one showing the coldest and snowiest solution. I prefer seeing a consensus before I get excited about any projected cold spell....no matter how consistently one model may be showing it...and even then I am still touching wood that it comes off

Edited February 9, 2013 by Timmytour

[Essan]

12z NMM accumulated ppn predictions by the time we reach Monday morning, also snow depth chart highlighting not much accumulation away from the higher ground.

Though it is showing nearly half a month's precipitation in these parts - whether that be rain or snow.

[Ian Brown]

Uncertain is an easy way of summing up the output for tomorrow, midweek and beyond.

UKMO, NAE, GFS differ with regards to tomorrows snow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs303.gif

GFS moves the band of snow much further NE than the UKMO, NAE. Now like I said earlier I would always follow the GFS at this timeframe. However fully expect more changes on the 18Z.

Little point going further but a chance we might see more snow midweek but the outlook beyond this has certainly trended more favourably if you seek a continuation of the cold.

I wouldn't follow the GFS at this time frame after it's poor effort on the successive snow Fridays a few weeks ago or it's effort for the event in Feb of last year.

Poor ECM, promising GFS tonight. Hopefully we can see the sort of weakening of the jet that the GFS goes for, enabling heights to rise to the N/NW.

[london-snow]

I was about to post something similar, using the image posted by Matt Hugo on twitter, you can see the differences between it and the NAE at the same timeframe.

Please say those blue stars indicate snow?

If so that is a belter of a map for south eastern areas of england.

[Panayiotis]

Please say those blue stars indicate snow?

If so that is a belter of a map for south eastern areas of england.

Yes blue stars = snow

[london-snow]

Yes blue stars = snow

Thanks for that ~ One happy man here ~ all eyes to the radar for tomorrow then!