Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Froze were the Days]

Strange how everybody is looking at the GFS now after being discarded for most of the winter, unfortunately this model has not picked out hardly any trends past mid range this winter. The period approx 132-216+ basically shows a 'dead' continent and Atlantic which doesn't look right to my untrained eye.

[bryan629]

Strange how everybody is looking at the GFS now after being discarded for most of the winter, unfortunately this model has not picked out hardly any trends past mid range this winter. The period approx 132-216+ basically shows a 'dead' continent and Atlantic which doesn't look right to my untrained eye.

yep! also strange how the ecm is handling the shortwave over scandi at the mo... expect that to be a distant memory in future runs, starting tonight.

2 runs in a row from gfs that show a new an exciting trend, cant be all bad...

ecm im sure will have dropped the shortwave, we shall see

[snowking]

Strange how everybody is looking at the GFS now after being discarded for most of the winter, unfortunately this model has not picked out hardly any trends past mid range this winter. The period approx 132-216+ basically shows a 'dead' continent and Atlantic which doesn't look right to my untrained eye.

Yes and caution should be used when viewing the GFS for the reason bolded above. However, what you are discussing is the operational run

If you take a look back through some of GP's (and others) recent posts, there has been strong ensemble support for such a scenario over the past week or so (at that stage it was in the 11-15 day timeframe, we are now looking days 6-10).

Still absolutely no guarantees, and I would personally like to see the ECMWF move towards such a solution too (its 0z EPS mean certainly was heading that way)

SK

[Pixel]

Strange how everybody is looking at the GFS now after being discarded for most of the winter, unfortunately this model has not picked out hardly any trends past mid range this winter. The period approx 132-216+ basically shows a 'dead' continent and Atlantic which doesn't look right to my untrained eye.

certainly a dead-ish atlantic (see jet) is being projected by most of the models in comparison to what we've been used to so far this winter. What the models do with that this time of year presents an interesting period of weather for us here on this tiny Island. I can understand certain posters getting enthusiastic, dare I say - passionate (-: Edited February 9, 2013 by Pixel

[chris55]

The only thing with the anomaly charts posted over the past week or so was the huge anomaly for an Atlantic ridge to set up. As of tonight we are not seeing this, however those same anomaly charts did have anomalously high pressure over Scandi as well, so maybe they are trending more toward that set up.

(hope that's enough anomalous anomalies for you guys lol.

[Tim Bland]

Still all to play for regards the weds / thurs rain or snow. GFS op was on the mild side of the ensembles for this ESP in the south

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-february-9-2013

Very important also for us UK , Euro , en Amerika.

[TEITS]

Uncertain is an easy way of summing up the output for tomorrow, midweek and beyond.

UKMO, NAE, GFS differ with regards to tomorrows snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

GFS moves the band of snow much further NE than the UKMO, NAE. Now like I said earlier I would always follow the GFS at this timeframe. However fully expect more changes on the 18Z.

Little point going further but a chance we might see more snow midweek but the outlook beyond this has certainly trended more favourably if you seek a continuation of the cold.

[johnholmes]

The only thing with the anomaly charts posted over the past week or so was the huge anomaly for an Atlantic ridge to set up. As of tonight we are not seeing this, however those same anomaly charts did have anomalously high pressure over Scandi as well, so maybe they are trending more toward that set up.

(hope that's enough anomalous anomalies for you guys lol.

huge anomaly over the Atlantic?

Best you show me this as I never saw that. That is if you talking about the 500mb anomaly charts?

[-uksnow-]

huge anomaly over the Atlantic?

Best you show me this as I never saw that. That is if you talking about the 500mb anomaly charts?

John, i think he is referring to these from GP

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_id=159895 - 6-10 day

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_id=159894 - 11-15 day

[Snowman.]

Strange how everybody is looking at the GFS now after being discarded for most of the winter, unfortunately this model has not picked out hardly any trends past mid range this winter. The period approx 132-216+ basically shows a 'dead' continent and Atlantic which doesn't look right to my untrained eye.

I'm optimistic until I see the ECM join in then I'm more confident.

[Mucka]

ECM and the models in general really can't decide whether to send energy SE or NE so in this instance it just shrugs.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Ec is splitting the low at 48 hours near UK., before it leaves en become again one.

I think this is very good news for snow.

[Snowman.]

ECM says no.

I'm following the ECM rather than the GFS.

[SMU]

^^ I think you need to wait to 168.....

S

[Isolated Frost]

Big cold set in play for much of central Europe- the energy sent E/NE on this run from the EC. There is a lot of fun synoptics beforehand (tomorrow's sliding trough, Monday's easterly and the retrogressive plume of upper heights moving in as the canadian vortex finally disarms itself)- and the trend looks very GP-like... see the NW winter f'cast Feb prediction-

We're seeing a good +ve anomaly to the NE and N, and a tentative -ve anomaly to the south-east. The atlantic hardly looks like it's having a party against the block, and it's only a matter of time before we see an amplified trough backing west in the atlantic as we see a link-up of northern heights. Things are looking very promising..

big -ve temperature anomalies across central Europe over the next week at the least with a cold E'ly regime, expect the UK, specifically the east to join in with these for at least the next 10 days... after that, a variety of options... I don't think rampaging zonality is one of them.

[-uksnow-]

^^ I think you need to wait to 168.....

S

Im waiting..

168

[Summer Sun]

Well ECM is remaining consistent again tonight it builds pressure and turns milder at the end of the week

Edited February 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[-uksnow-]

Ok well here are the 'big 3' at 7 days out...

UKMO

ECM

GFS

In fairness the ECM seems to be the half way house between the two.. who remembers that funny word that used to be quite common, a.. agreement? Not today!

Edited February 9, 2013 by -eded-

[Summer Sun]

As you were from ECM as high pressure stays

[chris55]

John, i think he is referring to these from GP

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=159895 - 6-10 day

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=159894 - 11-15 day

Yes it was these charts but the anomaly was much stronger, GP pointed it out, said he had not seen such a strong anomaly that he could remember.

[Mucka]

ECM taunting us with a mild outlier before the fun begins?

[Timmytour]

Well ECM is remaining consistent again tonight it builds pressure and turns milder at the end of the week

I guess if the ECm is being consistent, we can disregard anything the GFS says and throw it in the bin?

[Summer Sun]

Low pressure edges the high south at t216

[chris55]

Uncertain is an easy way of summing up the output for tomorrow, midweek and beyond.

UKMO, NAE, GFS differ with regards to tomorrows snow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs303.gif

GFS moves the band of snow much further NE than the UKMO, NAE. Now like I said earlier I would always follow the GFS at this timeframe. However fully expect more changes on the 18Z.

Little point going further but a chance we might see more snow midweek but the outlook beyond this has certainly trended more favourably if you seek a continuation of the cold.

Thats really interesting TEITS, you would take GFS over the high res models in the short term? What is the reason for that, surely the likes of the NAE and others will give a better prediction at this very short timescale?