Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[offerman]

John, That streaming video doesn`t look so bad in N.Y

Tim, don`t agree with those links as M.O has the warning further north that shown by pink hatched areas.

[-uksnow-]

UKMO at 96 hrs is alot like this mornings 06z GFS for the same time, and also better than the current 12z GFS

This mornings (06z GFS) Wednesday 13:00 hrs

Current UKMO for same time

More energy heading south eastwards on the UKMO than the 12z, yet still not quite as good as the 06z GFS as the block is not as strong to our NE and there isnt that small depression in the atlantic causing energy to dive SE over us.

Edited February 9, 2013 by -eded-

[offerman]

I don`t think i have ever seen such a mild set of siberian winds around a high pressure in this coldest part of the winter, really is astounding.

[bryan629]

gfs not as progrssive as the 06z, but next few frames i guess to show a lovely eagle looking west

[Barking_Mad]

Timelapse of snowfall in new England. Sorry for cross post but sure people will enjoy.

[-uksnow-]

gfs not as progrssive as the 06z, but next few frames i guess to show a lovely eagle looking west

Nailed it!

There is still a sign of more energy going under the block this week, 06z evolution was perfectly reasonable, just got to see if this trend continues over the next few runs i guess!

[Tim Bland]

So far so god from GFS. Not as good as 06z but better than yesterday's 12z. More snow than rain on weds. Wouldn't take much tweaking to make it another good snow event

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

[bluearmy]

The 12z gfs more in line with general concensus than the 06z.note the undercut to our west - that's what we want to see. Get some cut off heights towards greenland.

[EML Network]

I am very happy with the Met Office's Longer range update today, the wording suggests to me that they don't think Winter will be done with us just yet.

So for those who are going to miss out over the next 3-4 days (And I believe personally that there will be many of us who do miss out), it looks like there may just well be one final bite at the cherry at the end of the month.

The latest GFS run has everything slightly further East again, leading to the snow line moving back East with it, and slightly further North, looks to me like the midlands are well positioned for this, along with parts of the East.

You have to feel sorry for those in the South West this Winter,they seem to be always on the wrong side of marginal.

I doubt that many in the SE that see snow falling, will see it settling, which is almost as bad as seeing an all rain event, which is likely for my area.

both the UKMO and the GFS are signing from the same song sheet now as regards to the middle part of next week onward which is for an area of Low pressure to move the Scandi High out of the way , meaning a period of Rain with temporary leading edge snow on Thursday, there after it's open to debate IMO with a range of possibilities.

UKMO Midday Wed

[bradymk]

Heights building nicely into Greenland here on GFS 12z. Where is the low to our south west going to go? Maybe aid greenland heights even more.

[-uksnow-]

UKMO @ 120

Nothing like the GFS for same time period!

[Tamara]

UKMO @ 120

Nothing like the GFS for same time period!

It continues though from the adjustment theme mentioned earlier wrt the changes within t72 and the block to the NE being that bit stronger. T120 gives time for further adjustment and trough disruption further west than we see here. Quite encouraging imo

[-uksnow-]

Where'd ya go mr jet stream?!

Edit: Yes Tamara Road - All positive trends.

Edited February 9, 2013 by -eded-

[Ice Day]

Height's continue to push up into Greenland at 168 on GFS. A persisting trend maybe?

[bradymk]

Here comes the undercut on GFS, hope it shows in hi-res before GFS goes nuts in low res. Heights into Greenland, a good run again so far.

[igloo]

lets hope this evenings GFS is right for a change i know its a big ask but for once it might be on the money if we go down the road of the UKMO well i hate to say it but we might as well look forward to spring.one possitive is atleast the GFS and ECM look similer at +144h so not all over just yet

[snow mad]

You wait all winter for a scandi high then 3 come along at once http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1

[Panayiotis]

Just us? I will take that!

[bluearmy]

Models still struggling to resolve the lack of atlantic jet. I guess its understandable seeing as they've had no practice this winter!

You can just tell when it all goes slack and directionless that its doubtful the run has the detail, though it may be sniffing the new lonwave pattern.

[snow mad]

Models still struggling to resolve the lack of atlantic jet. I guess its understandable seeing as they've had no practice this winter!

You can just tell when it all goes slack and directionless that its doubtful the run has the detail, though it may be sniffing the new lonwave pattern.

Unfortunately your probably right BA about them clueless shame though I would love the 12 GFS to verify

[Frosty.]

And, the models are saying what?

The Gfs 12z is saying, cold first half of next week, a fairly brief atlantic disruped intelude followed by stronger cold blocking throughout FI, almost as amazing as the 6z in FI. Hopefully a new trend but today the meto 6-15 day sounds like a return to normal, they are bullish about it too, but the way I see the gfs 12z is there is no real atlantic attack as such, just the midweek mexican standoff but nothing to follow it and push the block back, as soon as the atlantic begins to look more benign again, the cold block gathers strength and floods the uk with more cold air and widespread severe frosts with snow risk again.

[-uksnow-]

Control also says yes to the easterly...

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Great Run GFS 06z en also now GFS 12z , i am full convinced at basis from that CFS , CMA Cptec, en another factors that we are up to something really big , perhaps later in the month or march a kind of little nemo ?For West Europa..

The real cold was very long time closed locked up near the sea of Kara [ NW Russia].It want to rolle out.

End for this reason i had a totally different vision than the other masters ,they said the MJO fase would by his 3e fase sligtht down , they had only expected on the MJO forecast that there would be warming up around the 10 -13 februari, en they granted that most likely.But i didnt think so. I think we are in for a big surprise. Let wait now ECMWF or CMA ens als JMA .

[chris55]

Definitely a new "theme" being played with by the GFS in the mid range today, positive, and something to keep us interested.

[SE Blizzards]

GEM 12Z has UK in an Easterly flow at 144h with some deeper cold brewing to the East...